Allsvenskan Thu, 29 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC

Hammarby FF vs Sirius

Fair price as of 08:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:05 UTC
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Most likely: Hammarby FF 66%
Over 2.5 goals: 63%
Most likely score 2–0 (10.0%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Hammarby FF the most likely outcome at 66% — fair odds of 1.51. Unibet (SE) offers 1.56, a market gap of +3.2% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Strong value). Confidence is High and model agreement is Low. Recent form — Hammarby FF: WWLWW; Sirius: LDWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Strong value

1 Hammarby FF @ 1.56

Bookmaker Unibet (SE)

Price observed Thu, 29 Oct · 08:34 UTC

Flag recorded Sun, 25 Oct · 17:00 UTC @ 1.56 (Unibet (SE)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 1.51

Unibet (SE) 1.56

Market Gap +3.2%

Confidence High

Model agreement Low

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Edge at detection +1.1% @ 1.56 · 25 Oct

Edge right now +3.2% @ 1.56 · 52 minutes ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Hammarby FF (1) is priced at 1.56 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.51 — a +3.2% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1 Home win 66%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	66%	19%	15%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	65%	19%	16%
Our model	44%	27%	29%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.54

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.49 / 4.54 / 5.43

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 52 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.51

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.56 / 4.70 / 6.43

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 39 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.51	5.22	6.83
Pinnacle sharp	1.48	4.81	6.21
1xBet	1.47	4.60	5.81
888sport	1.44	4.40	5.75
Betsson	1.47	4.60	6.43 ★
Betway UK-only	1.45	4.75 ★	6.00
Coolbet	1.56 ★	4.65	5.50
GTbets	1.55	4.47	5.81
Unibet (SE)	1.56 ★	4.70	5.75

Show all 39 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.53	4.90	6.20
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.53	4.90	6.20
Matchbook exchange	1.53	4.90	6.40
Smarkets exchange	1.53	4.90	6.20
BetAnything	1.48	4.70	5.90
BetOnline.ag	1.48	4.70	5.90
BetVictor	1.44	4.40	5.75
Betano (UK) UK-only	1.44	4.40	5.75
Betclic (FR)	1.43	4.45	5.60
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.44	4.50	5.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.44	4.33	5.50
BoyleSports UK-only	1.40	4.33	5.00
Casumo UK-only	1.51	4.40	5.30
Coral UK-only	1.48	4.20	5.25
Grosvenor UK-only	1.50	4.20	5.10
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.48	4.20	5.25
LeoVegas UK-only	1.47	4.70	6.00
LeoVegas (SE)	1.51	4.40	5.30
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.46	4.10	5.00
Nordic Bet	1.45	4.50	6.20
PMU (FR)	1.45	4.10	5.00
Paddy Power UK-only	1.44	4.50	5.50
Sky Bet UK-only	1.44	4.20	5.25
Tipico	1.40	4.70	5.80
Unibet (FR)	1.36	4.35	5.50
Unibet (NL)	1.51	4.40	5.30
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.48	4.60	6.00
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.50	4.25	5.10
William Hill	1.44	4.40	5.80
Winamax (DE)	1.44	4.60	5.40
Winamax (FR)	1.40	4.30	5.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Hammarby FF

Out B. Hedlof · injury started 0 of 25 team matches this season

Sirius

Doubtful O. Liimatta · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 04:01 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	85% fair 1.18 best 1.17 · Betano	15% fair 6.47 best 6.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Bet365	37% fair 2.71 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.27 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	85% fair 1.18 best 1.17 · Betano	15% fair 6.47 best 6.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Bet365	37% fair 2.71 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.71 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet	2.40 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet
3	1.91 fair best 1.82 · Betano	2.09 fair best 2.02 · SBO
3.25	2.20 fair best 2.06 · SBO	1.84 fair best 1.76 · SBO
3.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.27 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Betano
3.75	2.75 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet	1.57 fair best 1.47 · BetVictor
4.5	22% fair 4.59 best 4.00 · Bet365	78% fair 1.28 best 1.25 · Betano
5.5	10% fair 9.56 best 8.00 · Bet365	90% fair 1.12 best 1.10 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
85% fair 1.17 best 1.16 · Betano	81% fair 1.24 best 1.20 · William Hill	34% fair 2.96 best 2.62 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Hammarby FF	Sirius
−1.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.30 · Bet365	60% fair 1.67 best 1.62 · Betano
−1.25	2.17 fair best 2.09 · SBO	1.86 fair best 1.78 · Bet365
−1	1.86 fair best 1.81 · SBO	2.16 fair best 2.03 · SBO
−0.75	1.66 fair best 1.60 · Bet365	2.52 fair best 2.35 · SBO
−0.5	65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Bet365	35% fair 2.88 best 2.55 · Betano

All lines (10)

Line	Hammarby FF	Sirius
−2.25	4.25 fair best 3.58 · 1xBet	1.31 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
−2	3.94 fair best 3.30 · Bet365	1.34 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−1.75	2.98 fair best 2.60 · Bet365	1.50 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−1.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.30 · Bet365	60% fair 1.67 best 1.62 · Betano
−1.25	2.17 fair best 2.09 · SBO	1.86 fair best 1.78 · Bet365
−1	1.86 fair best 1.81 · SBO	2.16 fair best 2.03 · SBO
−0.75	1.66 fair best 1.60 · Bet365	2.52 fair best 2.35 · SBO
−0.5	65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Bet365	35% fair 2.88 best 2.55 · Betano
−0.25	1.37 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.67 fair best 3.30 · Bet365
0	1.22 fair best 1.18 · Bet365	5.51 fair best 4.65 · Bet365

Goals by team

Hammarby FF goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	37% fair 2.69 best 2.40 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	66% fair 1.51 best 1.47 · Betano	34% fair 2.98 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	37% fair 2.69 best 2.40 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · Bet365

Sirius goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.47 · Betano	35% fair 2.86 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.47 · Betano	35% fair 2.86 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	25% fair 3.93 best 3.28 · 1xBet	75% fair 1.34 best 1.33 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
50% fair 2.01 best 1.99 · SBO	35% fair 2.86 best 2.62 · Bet365	15% fair 6.59 best 5.54 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.98 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet	2.02 fair best 2.03 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.43 best 2.25 · Betano	59% fair 1.70 best 1.67 · Bet365

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.37 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor	3.69 fair best 3.08 · 1xBet
1	1.54 fair best 1.53 · Betano	2.84 fair best 2.47 · 1xBet
1.25	1.98 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet	2.02 fair best 2.03 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.43 best 2.25 · Betano	59% fair 1.70 best 1.67 · Bet365
1.75	3.09 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet	1.48 fair best 1.46 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
9.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.62 · Betano	37% fair 2.73 best 2.46 · Marathonbet
10.5	51% fair 1.95 best 2.02 · Betano	49% fair 2.05 best 1.93 · 1xBet
11.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.62 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.58 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
9.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.62 · Betano	37% fair 2.73 best 2.46 · Marathonbet
10	1.72 fair best 1.85 · Bet365	2.39 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
10.5	51% fair 1.95 best 2.02 · Betano	49% fair 2.05 best 1.93 · 1xBet
11	2.23 fair —	1.81 fair —
11.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.62 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.58 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Hammarby FF	Sirius
−4	2.52 fair best 2.31 · Marathonbet	1.66 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
−3.5	46% fair 2.20 best 2.02 · 1xBet	54% fair 1.84 best 2.00 · Bet365
−3	1.98 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet	2.02 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet
−2.5	55% fair 1.81 best 1.80 · Bet365	45% fair 2.23 best 2.08 · 1xBet
−2	1.61 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet	2.64 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–010.0%fair 10.03
2–19.8%fair 10.22
1–18.9%fair 11.29
1–08.5%fair 11.76
3–07.6%fair 13.23
3–17.4%fair 13.48

Total goals

04%
112%
221%
322%
4+41%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Hammarby FF at home, Sirius away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Hammarby FF	Sirius
Goals scored per game	1.60 (2.00)	1.40 (2.20)
Goals conceded per game	0.70 (0.70)	1.50 (1.10)
Over 2.5 goals	30% (50%)	60% (70%)
Both teams scored	30% (40%)	50% (60%)
Clean sheets	50% (40%)	30% (40%)
Failed to score	20% (20%)	20% (0%)
xG for / against per game	2.82 / 0.89	1.61 / 1.47
Corners for / against per game	7.80 / 2.50	6.60 / 5.90
Cards per game	1.70	1.50

Over 2.5 goals: Hammarby FF in 30% and Sirius in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 63% for this match.

From 10 matches for Hammarby FF and 10 for Sirius. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value improving

Detected · Sun, 25 Oct · 17:00 UTC

1 Hammarby FF · soft 1.56 (Unibet (SE)) · fair 1.54 · edge +1.1%

Opening sharp

1.49

Current Value improving

soft 1.56 · sharp 1.48 · fair 1.51 · edge +3.2%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Hammarby FF averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Sirius averaged 1.6 and 1.0 over 5.

The sharp market price on Hammarby FF has barely moved since opening (1.49 to 1.48) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Hammarby FF has won its last 2 matches.

✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Hammarby FF at +3.2% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Hammarby FF

W W L W W

avg 1.4 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)

Sirius

L D W W W

avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

13 Apr 2026 Sirius 2–0 Hammarby FF

24 Aug 2025 Sirius 3–1 Hammarby FF

14 May 2025 Hammarby FF 3–2 Sirius

26 Oct 2024 Sirius 0–3 Hammarby FF

26 May 2024 Hammarby FF 3–0 Sirius

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Thu, 22 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.49

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Hammarby FF

Odds when flagged 1.56

Fair odds 1.54

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint caf23c8b2370dcf4

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit