Short answer. A correct score prediction is right far less often than most people expect. As of 1 November 2026, on 3,014 matches we checked, the single most likely score was estimated at 12.5% on average and happened in 12.8% of them: about 1 time in 8. Even the strongest estimates, scores given 15% or more, happened 16.8% of the time (346 scores), about 1 in 6. Five free prediction sites we read every day were right 7–13% of the time on the scores they chose, in line with the fair chance of those scores. Nothing we have measured comes close to "100%".
TipsAudit publishes these numbers on the pages linked below. We sell no tips, have no bookmaker affiliation, and nothing here is a suggestion to bet. 18+.
What a correct score prediction is, and why the odds are so long
A correct score prediction names the exact score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: 2–1, not just "home win". A match has dozens of possible scores, and even the most likely one rarely has more than a 15% chance.
Chance and odds are the same number seen two ways: fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. A 12.8% chance is fair odds of about 7.8; a 16.8% chance is about 6.0. A bookmaker's correct-score price includes its margin, so it pays less than the fair odds. We do not measure bookmaker margins on correct score, and we do not suggest correct-score bets.
An example from /correct-score-predictions-today around midday UTC on 1 November 2026: the most likely score of Liverpool v Arsenal was 1–1, at about 13% (estimated fair odds 7.45). Even that most likely score would not happen in about 87 matches out of 100 priced like this one.
Our score model on 3,014 matches: right about 1 time in 8
Every week we check our correct score estimates against what happened, on /calibration. The estimates come from a model fitted to Pinnacle's margin-free 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices; the check uses the closing prices. The latest check, run on 26 October 2026 and shown on /calibration as of 1 November 2026, covers 3,014 matches played between mid-June and late October 2026 in 85 competitions.
Every score from 0–0 to 6–6 of every match is grouped by its estimated chance:
| Estimated chance | Estimated (average) | Happened | Scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 112,500 |
| 3–6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 16,331 |
| 6–9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10,700 |
| 9–12% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 5,500 |
| 12–15% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 2,309 |
| 15% and more | 16.4% | 16.8% | 346 |
In every band, what happened is close to the estimate. The most likely score of each match was estimated at 12.5% on average and happened in 12.8% of the 3,014 matches. If the estimates were exactly right, chance alone would put that hit rate within about ±1.2 points of 12.5% (95% range; our arithmetic from the check file, which also puts every band's gap within chance), so the 0.3-point gap is noise.
In the same check, the score that actually happened had been given an estimated chance of 6.9% on average. Most matches end in a score that was not the most likely one.
The best case we measured: about 1 in 6
The top band is the ceiling. Only 346 scores in 3,014 matches reached an estimated 15% or more, so in at least 88% of matches (nearly 9 in 10) no score got there. Those 346 happened 16.8% of the time (estimated 16.4%; 95% range about ±3.9 points). That is roughly 1 in 6, and it is the best case we have measured.
Long runs of misses are normal. If you took the most likely score of every match, at about 12.8% each, ten misses in a row would happen about 25% of the time, and twenty in a row about 6% (simple arithmetic, treating matches as independent). Variance and sample size explains why short runs say so little.
Which scores happen most often
Scores after 90 minutes from our results table, read on 1 November 2026. "All matches" is every finished match from 14 February 2020 to 31 October 2026: 98,884 matches in 173 competitions, including cups, internationals, friendlies and some women's and reserve leagues. "Big five" is the 11,189 matches of the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 in that range (from August 2020). For some older cup and tournament matches our feed did not record the 90-minute score separately, so a few of them may include extra-time goals.
| Score (home–away) | All matches (98,884) | Big five leagues (11,189) |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.8% | 12.2% |
| 1–0 | 10.1% | 9.0% |
| 2–1 | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| 0–1 | 7.7% | 7.2% |
| 0–0 | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| 2–0 | 7.0% | 6.7% |
| 1–2 | 6.9% | 7.0% |
| 2–2 | 5.2% | 5.5% |
| 0–2 | 4.7% | 5.3% |
| 3–1 | 4.0% | 4.3% |
1–1 is the most common score in both sets, and still only about 1 match in 8 ends that way. The three most common scores together (1–1, 1–0, 2–1) cover 30.5% of all matches. A base rate is not a prediction: for a given match, the useful number is that match's own estimate.
How free sites do on correct score predictions
We read the public prediction pages of several free sites every day before kick-off and settle every pick we can match to a fixture on the 90-minute score. We have no Pinnacle price on correct score, so there is no closing line to compare with. Instead we compare a site's hit rate with the estimated fair chance of the scores it chose, from the same model and the market price at the time we read the pick. Figures as of 1 November 2026, from each review page, on picks read since 14 October 2026 on matches we price.
| Site | Right | Estimated fair chance of the scores they chose | Picks (won or lost, with a fair-chance estimate) | Chance-only range (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forebet | 8.5% | 8.5% | 621 | 6.4–10.8% |
| FootballPredictions.net | 8.6% | 9.0% | 595 | 6.7–11.3% |
| WinDrawWin | 8.6% | 8.3% | 788 | 6.3–10.3% |
| PredictZ | 7.1% | 8.1% | 731 | 6.2–10.1% |
| FreeSuperTips | 13.3% | 8.6% | 105 | 3.8–14.3% |
The last column is our own calculation from the same picks, not shown on the review pages: if every pick had exactly its estimated fair chance, the hit rate would land in this range 95 times in 100.
- Every site landed inside the range chance alone allows. None was measurably better or worse than the fair chance of its own scores.
- Their chosen scores had an estimated fair chance of 8–9% on average. That is lower than the 12.5% average of the most likely score in our check, but the matches and prices differ, so from this we cannot say how often a site picked the most likely score.
- FreeSuperTips' 13.3% rests on 105 picks. Its range is wide: a rate that high or higher would happen by chance about 7 times in 100, so it says little yet.
- Together, the five sites were right 8.4% of the time on 2,840 picks, against an estimated fair chance of 8.4% (chance-only range 7.4–9.4%).
FootballPredictions.net, WinDrawWin, PredictZ and FreeSuperTips each state on their own pages that their tips come with no guarantee; the exact quotes are on our review pages. The full ranking of the sites we measure is on /review.
"100% correct score" and "fixed correct score" offers
Some pages in search results advertise "100% correct score" predictions or "fixed" matches. We do not measure any of these offers, so we cannot give them a rate. To be measured, a site would have to publish every pick on a public page before kick-off, so that we could read it in time and settle it afterwards.
For scale:
- The best band in 3,014 matches happened 16.8% of the time.
- Two correct scores in a row at 12.8% each: about 1.6% (1 in 61). Three in a row: about 0.2% (1 in 477).
- The four sites with several hundred settled correct-score picks each were right 7–9% of the time.
A claim of 100% is a claim to be right about 6 to 8 times more often than the best score estimates we have measured. Treat it as unproven until there is a public, timestamped record of every pick, losers included.
How our daily correct score predictions are built and checked
/correct-score-predictions-today, /correct-score-predictions-tomorrow and /correct-score-predictions-weekend show the three most likely scores of each match, with the estimated chance and fair odds.
- Inputs. Pinnacle's 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices with the margin removed.
- Model. Two Poisson distributions (home goals and away goals) with a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores, fitted so they reproduce those probabilities. If the fit misses any of them by more than 2 percentage points, the match is not shown.
- Label. The result is an estimate from market prices. It is not a bookmaker's correct-score quote, and it is not a tip.
- Check. Every week the same model runs on the closing prices of finished matches, and the result goes on /calibration.
One limit: the daily pages use the latest prices when you open them, which can be minutes or hours before kick-off, while the check uses closing prices, which include late information such as team news. The daily estimates may do slightly worse than the check. We have not measured that gap separately.
How to check any correct-score tipster
- Timestamps. Every pick must be visible before kick-off, with the time, and never edited afterwards. Screenshots of winners prove nothing.
- All the picks. A hit rate needs every pick, losers included.
- Sample size. At a true rate of 10%, 100 picks can land anywhere from roughly 5% to 16% by chance alone. You need several hundred before a rate means much.
- The right yardstick. Compare the hit rate with the fair chance of the scores chosen. Being right 9% of the time on scores with a 9% chance is exactly average.
- The price. A pick that is right 8.5% of the time needs average odds of about 11.8 just to break even.
The step-by-step version is in How to verify any tipster in 10 minutes.
FAQ
Can a correct score be predicted?
Only as a probability. On 3,014 matches, the most likely score happened 12.8% of the time, and the best band (15% and more) happened 16.8%. A good estimate tells you how unlikely each score is; it cannot tell you which score will happen.
What is the most common score in football?
1–1. It was the 90-minute score in 11.8% of 98,884 matches in our results table (February 2020 to October 2026) and in 12.2% of 11,189 big-five league matches. 1–0 and 2–1 come next.
Is there a 100% correct score prediction site?
Not one we have measured. The four free sites with several hundred settled correct-score picks each were right 7–9% of the time (a fifth was at 13% on only 105 picks). We do not measure offers that claim 100%; to be checked, a site would need to publish every pick before kick-off, losers included.
What are the odds of a correct score?
Usually long. The most likely score of a match is typically estimated at 10–17%, which is fair odds of roughly 6 to 10. A bookmaker pays less than the fair odds because of its margin.
Where can I see correct score predictions this weekend?
/correct-score-predictions-weekend lists the most likely scores of the weekend's matches with their estimated chance, and /correct-score-predictions-today has today's. They are estimates from market prices, not tips.
