Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Correct score predictions tomorrow

The most likely final scores of each match, estimated from the fair home/draw/away and over/under 2.5 prices (bookmaker margin removed). An estimate from market prices, not a bookmaker's correct-score quote.

An estimate from fair market prices, not a bookmaker's quote: even the most likely score usually has only 10–17%. How these estimates did on past matches →

How these numbers are made

Scores are estimated with two Poisson distributions and a low-score correction, fitted to the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 probabilities (Pinnacle, margin removed). Even the most likely score usually has only 10–17%: most matches end in a less likely score. How these estimates did on past matches →

Correct score predictions tomorrow
Time Match Most likely estimate2nd3rd
Parma Udinese Serie A · from prices updated 1–1 15% est. 6.83 0–0 11% est. 9.05 0–1 10% est. 9.83
Genoa Juventus Serie A · from prices updated 0–1 14% est. 7.29 1–1 12% est. 8.44 0–2 12% est. 8.50
AC Milan Bologna Serie A · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 8.88 1–0 10% est. 9.58 2–0 10% est. 9.59
Monza Napoli Serie A · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 9.11 1–2 10% est. 10.13 0–1 9% est. 10.62
Venezia Inter Serie A · from prices updated 1–2 9% est. 11.08 0–2 9% est. 11.55 1–3 8% est. 12.35
Bournemouth Aston Villa EFL Cup · from prices updated 1–1 12% est. 8.02 2–1 9% est. 11.14 1–2 8% est. 12.96
Sunderland Brentford EFL Cup · from prices updated 1–1 12% est. 8.12 1–2 9% est. 10.68 0–1 9% est. 11.22
Fulham Crystal Palace EFL Cup · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 9.22 2–1 10% est. 10.24 1–0 9% est. 11.69
Liverpool Chelsea EFL Cup · from prices updated 1–1 10% est. 9.65 2–1 9% est. 11.17 1–2 7% est. 13.73
Manchester City Brighton EFL Cup · from prices updated 1–1 10% est. 10.12 2–1 10% est. 10.31 2–0 8% est. 12.54
ST Johnstone Motherwell Scottish Premiership · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.69 2–1 9% est. 11.57 1–2 8% est. 12.41
Aberdeen Falkirk Scottish Premiership · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.93 2–1 9% est. 10.61 1–0 9% est. 11.10
Heart Of Midlothian Rangers Scottish Premiership · from prices updated 1–1 12% est. 8.56 1–2 9% est. 10.77 2–1 7% est. 13.88
ST Mirren Hibernian Scottish Premiership · from prices updated 1–1 12% est. 8.61 1–2 9% est. 10.66 0–1 7% est. 13.39
Dundee Kilmarnock Scottish Premiership · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 9.06 2–1 10% est. 10.48 2–0 7% est. 13.64
Celtic Dundee Utd Scottish Premiership · from prices updated 2–0 10% est. 9.95 3–0 9% est. 10.57 2–1 9% est. 11.61
Santos Palmeiras Brazil Serie A · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.63 1–2 9% est. 11.01 0–1 9% est. 11.03
Fluminense Internacional Brazil Serie A · from prices updated 1–1 12% est. 8.07 1–0 11% est. 8.70 2–0 10% est. 10.15
RB Bragantino Chapecoense-sc Brazil Serie A · from prices updated 2–0 11% est. 8.91 3–0 10% est. 10.13 2–1 9% est. 11.19
Toronto FC DC United MLS · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 8.93 2–1 9% est. 10.69 1–2 7% est. 14.44
New York City FC Atlanta United FC MLS · from prices updated 1–1 10% est. 9.60 2–1 10% est. 10.15 2–0 9% est. 11.73
Charlotte CF Montreal MLS · from prices updated 2–1 10% est. 10.43 2–0 9% est. 11.64 1–1 8% est. 12.57
New England Revolution New York Red Bulls MLS · from prices updated 1–1 9% est. 10.85 2–1 9% est. 10.96 2–2 7% est. 14.84
Inter Miami FC Cincinnati MLS · from prices updated 2–1 8% est. 12.46 3–1 8% est. 13.01 1–1 6% est. 15.65
Carrarese Arezzo Serie B · from prices updated 1–1 15% est. 6.90 0–0 10% est. 10.18 1–0 9% est. 10.89
Pisa Palermo Serie B · from prices updated 1–1 14% est. 6.96 2–1 9% est. 11.04 0–0 8% est. 11.89
Juve Stabia Hellas Verona Serie B · from prices updated 1–1 14% est. 7.38 1–2 8% est. 11.94 0–1 8% est. 12.02
AC Oulu VPS Veikkausliiga · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.64 2–1 9% est. 11.44 1–0 8% est. 11.77
Degerfors IF Vasteras SK FK Allsvenskan · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.66 1–0 9% est. 11.33 2–1 9% est. 11.40
Radnicki 1923 Železničar Pančevo Serbia Super Liga · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.73 2–1 9% est. 11.24 1–0 9% est. 11.64
Olimpija Ljubljana Celje Slovenia PrvaLiga · from prices updated 1–1 13% est. 7.78 1–0 9% est. 11.60 0–1 8% est. 11.94
ADT UCV Moquegua Peru Liga 1 · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 8.71 1–0 11% est. 9.42 2–0 11% est. 9.44
Nafta Aluminij Slovenia PrvaLiga · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 8.74 2–1 9% est. 11.40 1–2 8% est. 12.51
Alianza Atletico Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 8.88 1–0 11% est. 9.10 2–1 10% est. 10.22
FC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 9.27 1–0 11% est. 9.30 2–1 10% est. 10.41
IFK Goteborg Djurgardens IF Allsvenskan · from prices updated 1–1 11% est. 9.33 1–2 9% est. 10.55 0–1 8% est. 12.79
IF Brommapojkarna BK Hacken Allsvenskan · from prices updated 1–1 10% est. 9.90 1–2 10% est. 10.21 0–2 8% est. 12.16
Halmstad Malmo FF Allsvenskan · from prices updated 1–1 10% est. 10.02 1–2 10% est. 10.09 0–1 9% est. 10.81

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