Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Kudrivka
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Dynamo Kyiv was the most likely outcome at 83% (fair odds 1.21). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Dynamo Kyiv: LWWWD; Kudrivka: WLLLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 28' 1–0 Bogdan Veklyak (own goal) · Dynamo Kyiv
- 46' 2–0 Mykola Mykhaylenko · goal · assist Nazar Voloshyn · Dynamo Kyiv
- 59' Taras Mykhavko · yellow card · Dynamo Kyiv
- 60' Artur Dumanyuk · yellow card · Kudrivka
- 62' Oleksandr Beljaev · yellow card · Kudrivka
- 67' 2–1 Taras Mykhavko (own goal) · Kudrivka
- 79' 3–1 Oleksandr Pikhalyonok · goal · assist Andriy Yarmolenko · Dynamo Kyiv
- 86' Rodion Plaksa · yellow card · Kudrivka
Match stats
| Match stats | Dynamo Kyiv | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 59 | 41 |
| Shots | 22 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 9 | 8 |
| Corners | 12 | 8 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Dynamo Kyiv win 85% happened
- Draw 10% did not happen
- Kudrivka win 5% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 69% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Dynamo Kyiv 4-2-3-1
- 1 H. Bushchan GK
- 5 O. Sych DF
- 94 T. Kędziora DF
- 32 T. Mykhavko DF
- 44 V. Dubinchak DF
- 6 V. Brazhko MF
- 91 M. Mykhaylenko MF
- 7 A. Yarmolenko MF
- 10 M. Shaparenko MF
- 9 N. Voloshyn MF
- 11 M. Ponomarenko FW
Bench: K. Bah, K. Bilovar, E. Guerrero, V. Kabaev, J. Lonwijk, P. Mounguengue, S. Ogundana, I. Olkhovyi, O. Pikhalyonok, V. Rubchynskyi, A. Thiare, O. Tymchyk
Coach: M. Kędziorek
Kudrivka 4-3-3
- 37 A. Yashkov GK
- 22 B. Veklyak DF
- 17 M. Serdyuk DF
- 25 Mykola Oharkov DF
- 91 M. Melnychuk DF
- 8 Y. Smyrnyi MF
- 19 A. Dumanyuk MF
- 14 K. Makosso MF
- 21 O. Belyaev FW
- 24 R. Owusu FW
- 7 I. Petryak FW
Bench: R. Verley, O. Yushchenko, M. Vechurko, S. Sten, K. Sigeev, R. Plaksa, K. Lavuta, Mykhailo Kulyk, Anton Demchenko, K. Bychek, victor adeoye, D. Yesin
Coach: Yevgen Zadorozhniy
Regular starters not in the XI
- Yevgeniy Pasich — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 85 / 10 / 5% when the line-ups came out, 85 / 10 / 5% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 83% | 11% | 6% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 83% | 11% | 6% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Dynamo Kyiv averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Kudrivka averaged 1.8 and 2.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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