Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Internacional de Bogota
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Alianza Valledupar was the most likely outcome at 37% (fair odds 2.71). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Alianza Valledupar: WDLWL; Internacional de Bogota: WDDDL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 31' 1–0 M. Martinez · goal · assist J. Lasso · Alianza Valledupar
- 46' Jair Castillo · yellow card · Alianza Valledupar
- 49' Dewar Victoria · red card · Internacional de Bogota
- 70' Miguel Pernia · yellow card · Internacional de Bogota
- 87' Yeiner Londoño · yellow card · Alianza Valledupar
- 90+1' Wiston Fernández · yellow card · Alianza Valledupar
Match stats
| Match stats | Alianza Valledupar | Internacional de Bogota |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 54 | 46 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 | 0.26 |
| Shots | 12 | 4 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 1 |
| Corners | 7 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Fouls | 15 | 15 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 1 | 4 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86 | 81 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Alianza Valledupar win 42% happened
- Draw 30% did not happen
- Internacional de Bogota win 28% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 47% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Alianza Valledupar 4-1-4-1
- 40 Eduar Beltrán GK
- 16 Yilson Rosales DF
- 3 Kevin Moreno DF
- 5 Pedro Franco DF
- 32 Juan Viveros DF
- 33 Jhildrey Lasso MF
- 17 Felipe Pardo MF
- 55 Wiston Fernández MF
- 7 Jair Castillo MF
- 8 Jesús Muñoz MF
- 77 Misael Martínez FW
Bench: Antonio Simancas, Leyner Palacios, Josy Pérez, Yeiner Londoño, Ever Meza, Cristian Andres Vergara Rivas, Samuel Nieto, Charly Villegas, Sebastián Quiñones
Regular starters not in the XI
- J. Figueroa — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- I. Alba — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- E. Esteban — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- D. Quiñónes — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Internacional de Bogota 3-4-3
- 1 Wuilker Faríñez GK
- 2 Carlos Vivas DF
- 20 Joan Castro DF
- 26 Agustín Irazoque DF
- 25 Ronaldo Julio MF
- 8 Dewar Victoria MF
- 24 Ruben Manjarres MF
- 13 Miguel Pernia MF
- 10 Facundo Boné FW
- 7 Fabricio Sanguinetti FW
- 11 Cristián Dájome FW
Bench: Juan Carrasco, Miguel Amaya, Jhon Palomeque, Sebastián Girado, Johan Caballero, Mateo Santamaria, Diego Duarte, Yeider Garcia, Emanuel Arboleda
Regular starters not in the XI
- L. Vásquez — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- D. Rodas — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- D. Duarte — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 42 / 30 / 28% when the line-ups came out, 42 / 30 / 28% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 37% | 31% | 32% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Alianza Valledupar averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Internacional de Bogota averaged 1.0 and 1.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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