Serie A Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC

Sassuolo vs Lazio

Fair price as of 16:44 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:05 UTC
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Most likely: Lazio 49%
Over 2.5 goals: 58%
Both teams score: 62%
Most likely score 1–1 (12.4%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Lazio the most likely outcome at 49% — fair odds of 2.06. On Lazio, 1xBet offers 2.08 against a fair price of 2.06, a +1.0% gap: too small to call value, so we only monitor it (Micro-edge). Recent form — Sassuolo: LLDLW; Lazio: WWWWD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Micro-edge on 2 · Lazio: +1.0% at 1xBet, under 1.5% (monitor only) · Flag recorded 23 Oct: 2 · Lazio at +1.2%

Value check Micro-edge

2 Lazio @ 2.08

Bookmaker 1xBet

Price observed Tue, 27 Oct · 16:44 UTC

Flag recorded Fri, 23 Oct · 13:00 UTC @ 2.53 (1xBet) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 2.06

1xBet 2.08

Market Gap +1.0%

Edge at detection +1.2% @ 2.53 · 23 Oct

Edge right now +1.0% @ 2.08 · 15 minutes ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Lazio (2) is priced at 2.08 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.06 — a +1.0% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	25%	27%	49%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	32%	29%	39%
Our model	28%	25%	47%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.41

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.95 / 3.25 / 2.48

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 15 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.36

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 3.90 / 3.69 / 2.08

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 42 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	4.01	3.77	2.06
Pinnacle sharp	3.87	3.64	2.02
1xBet	3.79	3.69 ★	2.08 ★
888sport	3.30	3.60	1.95
BetAnything	3.70	3.60	2.00
BetOnline.ag	3.90 ★	3.67	1.97
BetVictor	3.60	3.60	2.00
GTbets	3.56	3.62	2.07
Unibet (SE)	3.75	3.65	2.07

Show all 42 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	3.90	3.70	2.08
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	3.90	3.70	2.10
Matchbook exchange	3.95	3.70	2.08
Smarkets exchange	3.95	3.70	2.06
Betano (UK) UK-only	3.60	3.60	2.00
Betclic (FR)	3.47	3.53	1.93
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	3.60	3.50	2.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only	3.50	3.50	2.00
Betsson	3.60	3.55	2.02
Betway UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.95
BoyleSports UK-only	3.30	3.60	1.91
Casumo UK-only	3.55	3.45	2.00
Codere (IT)	3.60	3.65	2.02
Coolbet	3.80	3.60	2.05
Coral UK-only	3.60	3.50	2.00
Everygame	3.65	3.50	2.00
Grosvenor UK-only	3.50	3.40	1.97
Ladbrokes UK-only	3.50	3.50	2.00
LeoVegas UK-only	3.45	3.60	1.98
LeoVegas (SE)	3.50	3.40	1.96
LiveScore Bet UK-only	3.50	3.40	2.00
Marathonbet	3.68	3.64	2.00
Nordic Bet	3.60	3.55	2.00
PMU (FR)	3.40	3.30	1.93
Paddy Power UK-only	3.60	3.40	2.00
Sky Bet UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.95
Tipico	3.70	3.60	1.95
Unibet (FR)	3.30	3.40	1.93
Unibet (NL)	3.65	3.55	2.02
Unibet (UK) UK-only	3.50	3.60	2.00
Virgin Bet UK-only	3.50	3.40	2.00
William Hill	3.30	3.60	2.00
Winamax (DE)	3.50	3.60	1.96
Winamax (FR)	3.40	3.45	1.92

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Sassuolo

Out F. Leysen · injury started 5 of 8 team matches this season
Out J. Idzes · injury started 3 of 8 team matches this season
Out D. Boloca · injury
Out I. Kone · other reason
Out Y. Paz · injury

Lazio

Out N. Rovella · injury started 2 of 8 team matches this season
Out A. Marusic · injury started 1 of 8 team matches this season
Doubtful A. Pinamonti · illness started 1 of 8 team matches this season
Out A. Furlanetto · injury
Out A. Gudmundsson · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 16:34 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	58% fair 1.73 best 1.77 · 1xBet	42% fair 2.37 best 2.31 · SBO
3.5	36% fair 2.80 best 2.85 · Coolbet	64% fair 1.56 best 1.50 · 1xBet

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.27 fair best 1.28 · BetVictor	4.70 fair best 3.82 · 1xBet
2	1.32 fair best 1.36 · Betano	4.08 fair best 3.46 · 1xBet
2.25	1.53 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet	2.88 fair best 2.64 · 1xBet
2.5	58% fair 1.73 best 1.77 · 1xBet	42% fair 2.37 best 2.31 · SBO
2.75	1.90 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet	2.11 fair best 2.12 · SBO
3	2.18 fair best 2.24 · Coolbet	1.85 fair best 1.86 · SBO
3.25	2.49 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet	1.67 fair best 1.66 · SBO
3.5	36% fair 2.80 best 2.85 · Coolbet	64% fair 1.56 best 1.50 · 1xBet
3.75	3.39 fair best 3.04 · 1xBet	1.42 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet
4	4.01 fair best 3.92 · 1xBet	1.33 fair best 1.25 · BetVictor

Both teams to score

Yes	No
62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Bet365	38% fair 2.61 best 2.38 · Betfair Sportsbook

Double chance

1X	12	X2
51% fair 1.94 best 1.80 · Betano	73% fair 1.36 best 1.33 · 1xBet	75% fair 1.33 best 1.34 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Sassuolo	Lazio
0	2.83 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet	1.55 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.19 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet	1.84 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
+0.5	53% fair 1.88 best 1.82 · Betano	47% fair 2.14 best 2.12 · SBO
+0.75	1.66 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet	2.50 fair best 2.47 · SBO
+1	1.46 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.19 fair best 3.00 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Sassuolo	Lazio
−1	6.21 fair best 6.25 · Bet365	1.19 fair best 1.14 · BetVictor
−0.75	5.25 fair best 4.25 · Bet365	1.24 fair best 1.21 · 1xBet
−0.5	25% fair 3.94 best 3.45 · Bet365	75% fair 1.34 best 1.35 · Betano
−0.25	3.38 fair best 3.00 · Bet365	1.42 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet
0	2.83 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet	1.55 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.19 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet	1.84 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
+0.5	53% fair 1.88 best 1.82 · Betano	47% fair 2.14 best 2.12 · SBO
+0.75	1.66 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet	2.50 fair best 2.47 · SBO
+1	1.46 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.19 fair best 3.00 · Bet365
+1.25	1.37 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.68 fair best 3.30 · Bet365

Goals by team

Sassuolo goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	34% fair 2.90 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.53 best 1.55 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.36 best 1.35 · 1xBet	27% fair 3.74 best 3.34 · Marathonbet
1.5	34% fair 2.90 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.53 best 1.55 · Marathonbet

Lazio goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.96 best 1.85 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.04 best 1.95 · Marathonbet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	81% fair 1.23 best 1.18 · Bet365	19% fair 5.31 best 5.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	51% fair 1.96 best 1.85 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.04 best 1.95 · Marathonbet
2.5	23% fair 4.26 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	77% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
24% fair 4.13 best 4.00 · BetVictor	39% fair 2.53 best 2.30 · William Hill	36% fair 2.76 best 2.65 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.17 fair best 2.02 · SBO	1.85 fair best 1.86 · SBO
1.5	37% fair 2.67 best 2.50 · Bet365	63% fair 1.60 best 1.59 · SBO

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.45 fair best 1.43 · BetVictor	3.22 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet
1	1.68 fair best 1.67 · Betano	2.48 fair best 2.44 · SBO
1.25	2.17 fair best 2.02 · SBO	1.85 fair best 1.86 · SBO
1.5	37% fair 2.67 best 2.50 · Bet365	63% fair 1.60 best 1.59 · SBO
1.75	3.48 fair best 2.88 · 1xBet	1.40 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.73 · Bet365	39% fair 2.60 best 2.27 · Marathonbet
9.5	49% fair 2.03 best 2.10 · Bet365	51% fair 1.97 best 1.80 · 1xBet
10.5	36% fair 2.76 best 2.80 · Betano	64% fair 1.57 best 1.45 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
8	1.56 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet	2.79 fair best 2.67 · 1xBet
8.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.73 · Bet365	39% fair 2.60 best 2.27 · Marathonbet
9	1.79 fair best 1.88 · Betano	2.26 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
9.5	49% fair 2.03 best 2.10 · Bet365	51% fair 1.97 best 1.80 · 1xBet
10	2.39 fair best 2.20 · 1xBet	1.72 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet
10.5	36% fair 2.76 best 2.80 · Betano	64% fair 1.57 best 1.45 · Betfair Sportsbook

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Sassuolo	Lazio
−0.5	38% fair 2.63 best 2.05 · Betano	62% fair 1.61 best 1.67 · Betano
0	2.35 fair best 2.05 · 1xBet	1.74 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
+0.5	48% fair 2.06 best 1.80 · Bet365	52% fair 1.94 best 2.00 · Bet365
+1	1.85 fair best 1.64 · Marathonbet	2.18 fair best 2.15 · 1xBet
+1.5	59% fair 1.69 best 1.52 · Marathonbet	41% fair 2.45 best 2.40 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.33 · Betano	24% fair 4.10 best 3.15 · Betano
3.5	55% fair 1.83 best 1.75 · Betano	45% fair 2.20 best 2.05 · Betano
4.5	35% fair 2.84 best 2.42 · Betano	65% fair 1.54 best 1.62 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.33 · Betano	24% fair 4.10 best 3.15 · Betano
3	1.46 fair —	3.19 fair —
3.5	55% fair 1.83 best 1.75 · Betano	45% fair 2.20 best 2.05 · Betano
4	2.28 fair best 1.85 · Betano	1.78 fair best 1.93 · Betano
4.5	35% fair 2.84 best 2.42 · Betano	65% fair 1.54 best 1.62 · 1xBet
5	3.83 fair —	1.35 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–112.4%fair 8.05
1–29.6%fair 10.42
0–27.8%fair 12.81
0–17.2%fair 13.89
2–16.7%fair 15.03
0–06.6%fair 15.25

Total goals

07%
112%
224%
322%
4+35%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Sassuolo at home, Lazio away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Sassuolo	Lazio
Goals scored per game	1.40 (1.90)	1.80 (1.40)
Goals conceded per game	2.00 (1.10)	0.80 (0.70)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (70%)	60% (30%)
Both teams scored	80% (70%)	50% (20%)
Clean sheets	0% (20%)	40% (50%)
Failed to score	20% (10%)	10% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.51 / 1.37	1.35 / 1.25
Corners for / against per game	3.70 / 5.90	5.20 / 4.70
Cards per game	1.40	2.00

Over 2.5 goals: Sassuolo in 70% and Lazio in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 58% for this match.

Both teams scored in 80% of Sassuolo's and 50% of Lazio's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 62% here.

From 10 matches for Sassuolo and 10 for Lazio. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Fri, 23 Oct · 13:00 UTC

2 Lazio · soft 2.53 (1xBet) · fair 2.50 · edge +1.2%

Opening sharp

2.49

Current Value still active

soft 2.08 · sharp 2.02 · fair 2.06 · edge +1.0%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Sassuolo averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Lazio averaged 2.4 and 0.8 over 5.

Since opening around 2.49, the sharp market price on Lazio has shortened to 2.02 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Sassuolo has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Sassuolo here.

Lazio has won its last 4 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Lazio here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Sassuolo

L L D L W

avg 1.4 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Lazio

W W W W D

avg 2.4 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

09 Mar 2026 Lazio 2–1 Sassuolo

14 Sep 2025 Sassuolo 1–0 Lazio

26 May 2024 Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo

21 Oct 2023 Sassuolo 0–2 Lazio

03 May 2023 Lazio 2–0 Sassuolo

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.35

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Lazio

Odds when flagged 2.53

Fair odds 2.50

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint cce5d1fd431156f3

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit