Serie A Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC

AS Roma vs Cagliari

Fair price as of 16:44 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 19:20 UTC
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Most likely: AS Roma 75%
Over 2.5 goals: 53%
Both teams score: 38%
Most likely score 2–0 (15.1%, estimate)

The sharp market makes AS Roma the most likely outcome at 75% — fair odds of 1.34. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — AS Roma: DWWLD; Cagliari: LLDWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 20 Oct: 1 · AS Roma at +2.1%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +2.1% @ 1.40 · 20 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 15 minutes ago

We flagged +2.1% on 1 on 20 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on AS Roma anyway? The best price we see is 1.33 at 1xBet, -0.5% against the fair odds of 1.34. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1 Home win 75%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	75%	17%	8%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	72%	19%	9%
Our model	71%	18%	10%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.38

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.35 / 4.75 / 9.64

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 15 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.34

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.33 / 6.00 / 12.10

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 42 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.34	5.76	12.71
Pinnacle sharp	1.32	5.32	11.33
1xBet	1.33 ★	5.48	12.10 ★
888sport	1.30	5.00	10.00
BetAnything	1.31	5.25	10.85
BetOnline.ag	1.30	5.50	12.00
BetVictor	1.29	5.25	11.00
Betano (UK) UK-only	1.29	5.25	11.00
Unibet (SE)	1.29	6.00 ★	11.50

Show all 42 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.33	5.80	12.00
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.33	5.80	12.00
Matchbook exchange	1.33	5.70	12.00
Smarkets exchange	1.32	5.80	12.50
Betclic (FR)	1.26	5.25	10.00
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.29	5.50	11.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.30	5.00	11.00
Betsson	1.30	5.15	11.00
Betway UK-only	1.30	5.25	10.00
BoyleSports UK-only	1.29	5.00	10.00
Casumo UK-only	1.26	5.50	11.00
Codere (IT)	1.30	5.40	10.00
Coolbet	1.31	5.60	11.30
Coral UK-only	1.30	5.25	10.00
Everygame	1.28	5.25	11.00
GTbets	1.29	5.18	11.03
Grosvenor UK-only	1.25	5.40	10.50
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.30	5.25	10.00
LeoVegas UK-only	1.29	5.25	9.50
LeoVegas (SE)	1.25	5.30	10.50
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.25	5.30	11.00
Marathonbet	1.31	5.40	12.00
Nordic Bet	1.29	5.10	11.00
PMU (FR)	1.23	5.20	10.00
Paddy Power UK-only	1.25	5.00	10.00
Sky Bet UK-only	1.25	5.50	11.00
Tipico	1.27	5.50	11.00
Unibet (FR)	1.23	5.50	10.00
Unibet (NL)	1.27	5.60	11.50
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.30	5.25	10.50
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.27	5.30	11.00
William Hill	1.30	5.00	10.00
Winamax (DE)	1.27	5.30	10.00
Winamax (FR)	1.25	5.00	9.50

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

AS Roma

Doubtful P. Dybala · injury started 6 of 8 team matches this season
Out M. Kone · injury started 5 of 8 team matches this season
Out M. Svilar · injury started 5 of 8 team matches this season
Out L. Pellegrini · injury started 1 of 3 team matches this season
Out M. Bah · injury

Cagliari

Out H. Winks · injury started 8 of 8 team matches this season
Out M. Felici · injury started 0 of 8 team matches this season
Out R. Idrissi · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 16:29 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.82 · 1xBet	47% fair 2.11 best 2.31 · SBO
3.5	30% fair 3.35 best 2.95 · Coolbet	70% fair 1.43 best 1.53 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.35 fair best 1.30 · 1xBet	3.86 fair best 3.60 · 1xBet
2	1.43 fair best 1.37 · 1xBet	3.30 fair best 3.35 · Coolbet
2.25	1.66 fair best 1.61 · 1xBet	2.51 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet
2.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.82 · 1xBet	47% fair 2.11 best 2.31 · SBO
2.75	2.15 fair best 2.01 · BetAnything	1.87 fair best 2.09 · SBO
3	2.57 fair best 2.30 · Coolbet	1.64 fair best 1.72 · Betano
3.25	2.96 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet	1.51 fair best 1.64 · SBO
3.5	30% fair 3.35 best 2.95 · Coolbet	70% fair 1.43 best 1.53 · Bet365
3.75	4.17 fair best 3.28 · 1xBet	1.32 fair best 1.30 · 1xBet
4	4.44 fair best 4.75 · Coolbet	1.29 fair best 1.25 · BetVictor

Both teams to score

Yes	No
38% fair 2.61 best 2.30 · Betfair Sportsbook	62% fair 1.62 best 1.75 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
92% fair 1.09 best 1.08 · Betano	83% fair 1.21 best 1.19 · 1xBet	25% fair 3.96 best 3.68 · Marathonbet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	AS Roma	Cagliari
−2	2.79 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet	1.56 fair best 1.55 · Betano
−1.75	2.25 fair best 2.26 · SBO	1.80 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet
−1.5	51% fair 1.96 best 1.98 · SBO	49% fair 2.04 best 1.99 · 1xBet
−1.25	1.71 fair best 1.72 · SBO	2.40 fair best 2.23 · SBO
−1	1.47 fair best 1.51 · SBO	3.11 fair best 2.85 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	AS Roma	Cagliari
−2.5	27% fair 3.68 best 3.20 · Betano	73% fair 1.37 best 1.38 · Betano
−2.25	3.24 fair best 2.88 · 1xBet	1.45 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet
−2	2.79 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet	1.56 fair best 1.55 · Betano
−1.75	2.25 fair best 2.26 · SBO	1.80 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet
−1.5	51% fair 1.96 best 1.98 · SBO	49% fair 2.04 best 1.99 · 1xBet
−1.25	1.71 fair best 1.72 · SBO	2.40 fair best 2.23 · SBO
−1	1.47 fair best 1.51 · SBO	3.11 fair best 2.85 · Betano
−0.75	1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365	3.62 fair best 3.25 · BetVictor
−0.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.38 · Betano	24% fair 4.14 best 3.70 · BetVictor

Goals by team

AS Roma goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	38% fair 2.65 best 2.40 · Betfair Sportsbook	62% fair 1.60 best 1.62 · Bet365

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.46 · Marathonbet	33% fair 3.04 best 2.75 · 1xBet
2.5	38% fair 2.65 best 2.40 · Betfair Sportsbook	62% fair 1.60 best 1.62 · Bet365
3.5	19% fair 5.18 best 4.80 · Betfair Sportsbook	81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Bet365

Cagliari goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.10 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.83 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
55% fair 1.82 best 1.78 · Betano	36% fair 2.75 best 2.55 · BetVictor	9% fair 11.40 best 9.50 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · 1xBet	28% fair 3.54 best 3.50 · Bet365
1	1.84 fair best 1.77 · 1xBet	2.19 fair best 2.36 · SBO
1.5	33% fair 2.99 best 2.63 · 1xBet	67% fair 1.50 best 1.57 · Bet365

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · 1xBet	28% fair 3.54 best 3.50 · Bet365
0.75	1.54 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet	2.87 fair best 2.61 · 1xBet
1	1.84 fair best 1.77 · 1xBet	2.19 fair best 2.36 · SBO
1.25	2.41 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet	1.71 fair best 1.82 · SBO
1.5	33% fair 2.99 best 2.63 · 1xBet	67% fair 1.50 best 1.57 · Bet365
1.75	3.70 fair best 3.28 · 1xBet	1.37 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	61% fair 1.65 best 1.65 · Betfair Sportsbook	39% fair 2.54 best 2.27 · Marathonbet
9.5	48% fair 2.09 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	52% fair 1.91 best 1.83 · 1xBet
10.5	36% fair 2.79 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook	64% fair 1.56 best 1.46 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	61% fair 1.65 best 1.65 · Betfair Sportsbook	39% fair 2.54 best 2.27 · Marathonbet
9	1.83 fair best 1.80 · Bet365	2.21 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet
9.5	48% fair 2.09 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	52% fair 1.91 best 1.83 · 1xBet
10	2.46 fair best 2.14 · 1xBet	1.69 fair best 1.60 · 1xBet
10.5	36% fair 2.79 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook	64% fair 1.56 best 1.46 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	AS Roma	Cagliari
−4.5	40% fair 2.50 best 2.30 · Marathonbet	60% fair 1.67 best 1.54 · 1xBet
−4	2.21 fair best 2.06 · Marathonbet	1.83 fair best 1.85 · Bet365
−3.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.84 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.05 best 2.02 · Betano
−3	1.74 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet	2.35 fair best 2.11 · Marathonbet
−2.5	62% fair 1.61 best 1.50 · 1xBet	38% fair 2.65 best 2.37 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.28 · Betano	23% fair 4.36 best 3.45 · Betano
2.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.78 · Betano	49% fair 2.03 best 2.02 · Betano
3.5	30% fair 3.33 best 2.67 · Betano	70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Betano

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.28 · Betano	23% fair 4.36 best 3.45 · Betano
2	1.46 fair —	3.19 fair —
2.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.78 · Betano	49% fair 2.03 best 2.02 · Betano
3	2.63 fair best 2.10 · Betano	1.61 fair best 1.72 · Betano
3.5	30% fair 3.33 best 2.67 · Betano	70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Betano
4	3.93 fair —	1.34 fair —
4.5	27% fair 3.65 —	73% fair 1.38 —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–015.1%fair 6.62
1–013.4%fair 7.47
3–011.1%fair 8.98
2–18.7%fair 11.56
1–18.1%fair 12.38
0–06.4%fair 15.57

Total goals

06%
117%
224%
322%
4+31%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: AS Roma at home, Cagliari away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	AS Roma	Cagliari
Goals scored per game	2.30 (2.70)	1.00 (0.90)
Goals conceded per game	1.10 (0.80)	1.10 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (70%)	40% (60%)
Both teams scored	50% (40%)	40% (50%)
Clean sheets	50% (60%)	30% (30%)
Failed to score	10% (0%)	30% (30%)
xG for / against per game	2.05 / 1.15	1.35 / 1.50
Corners for / against per game	6.10 / 2.80	3.90 / 5.60
Cards per game	2.10	1.50

Over 2.5 goals: AS Roma in 60% and Cagliari in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 53% for this match.

Both teams scored in 50% of AS Roma's and 40% of Cagliari's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 38% here.

From 10 matches for AS Roma and 10 for Cagliari. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Tue, 20 Oct · 10:00 UTC

1 AS Roma · soft 1.40 (1xBet) · fair 1.37 · edge +2.1%

Opening sharp

1.34

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

AS Roma averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Cagliari averaged 0.8 and 1.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

AS Roma is averaging 2.4 goals scored over its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on AS Roma here.

Cagliari has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Cagliari here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

AS Roma

D W W L D

avg 2.4 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Cagliari

L L D W W

avg 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

09 Feb 2026 AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari

07 Dec 2025 Cagliari 1–0 AS Roma

16 Mar 2025 AS Roma 1–0 Cagliari

18 Aug 2024 Cagliari 0–0 AS Roma

05 Feb 2024 AS Roma 4–0 Cagliari

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.35

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · AS Roma

Odds when flagged 1.40

Fair odds 1.37

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint fca17e1c9803675c

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit