Serie B Wed, 28 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Juve Stabia vs Hellas Verona

Fair price as of 17:24 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
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Most likely: Hellas Verona 37%
Over 2.5 goals: 50%
Most likely score 1–1 (13.5%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Hellas Verona the most likely outcome at 37% — fair odds of 2.71. On Juve Stabia, Unibet (NL) offers 2.90 against a fair price of 2.88, a +0.5% gap: too small to call value, so we only monitor it (Micro-edge). Recent form — Juve Stabia: WWDDD; Hellas Verona: DDLWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Micro-edge on 1 · Juve Stabia: +0.5% at Unibet (NL), under 1.5% (monitor only) · Flag recorded 27 Oct: 1 · Juve Stabia at +1.1%

Value check Micro-edge

1 Juve Stabia @ 2.90

Bookmaker Unibet (NL)

Price observed Tue, 27 Oct · 17:24 UTC

Flag recorded Tue, 27 Oct · 10:00 UTC @ 3.00 (Codere (IT)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 2.88

Unibet (NL) 2.90

Market Gap +0.5%

Edge at detection +1.1% @ 3.00 · 27 Oct

Edge right now +0.5% @ 2.90 · 29 minutes ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Juve Stabia (1) is priced at 2.90 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.88 — a +0.5% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 72%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	35%	28%	37%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	31%	28%	42%
Our model	45%	28%	27%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.38

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 3.09 / 3.41 / 2.31

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 29 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.40

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.90 / 3.50 / 2.52

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 38 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.88	3.52	2.71
Pinnacle sharp	2.75	3.33	2.59
1xBet	2.71	3.28	2.49
BetOnline.ag	2.74	3.15	2.52 ★
Casumo UK-only	2.90 ★	3.30	2.38
Coolbet	2.75	3.50 ★	2.50
Grosvenor UK-only	2.90 ★	3.30	2.38
Unibet (NL)	2.90 ★	3.30	2.38
Unibet (SE)	2.90 ★	3.30	2.38

Show all 38 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.78	3.40	2.68
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.78	3.40	2.68
Matchbook exchange	2.82	3.40	2.72
Smarkets exchange	2.74	3.30	2.60
888sport	2.70	3.10	2.50
BetVictor	2.60	3.30	2.45
Betano (UK) UK-only	2.60	3.30	2.45
Betclic (FR)	2.65	3.10	2.28
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	2.70	3.40	2.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only	2.62	3.30	2.40
Betsson	2.75	3.20	2.42
Betway UK-only	2.70	3.30	2.50
BoyleSports UK-only	2.50	3.10	2.40
Codere (IT)	2.85	3.35	2.50
Coral UK-only	2.62	3.20	2.37
Ladbrokes UK-only	2.62	3.20	2.37
LeoVegas (SE)	2.75	3.10	2.28
LiveScore Bet UK-only	2.75	3.10	2.25
Marathonbet	2.71	3.28	2.49
Nordic Bet	2.75	3.20	2.42
PMU (FR)	2.65	3.00	2.18
Paddy Power UK-only	2.62	3.30	2.40
Sky Bet UK-only	2.50	3.25	2.38
Tipico	2.70	2.95	2.50
Unibet (FR)	2.65	3.05	2.10
Unibet (UK) UK-only	2.80	3.30	2.45
Virgin Bet UK-only	2.80	3.15	2.28
William Hill	2.70	3.10	2.50
Winamax (DE)	2.65	3.25	2.35
Winamax (FR)	2.60	3.20	2.30

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 16:16 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Betano	24% fair 4.23 best 3.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	50% fair 2.02 best 1.90 · Bet365	50% fair 1.98 best 1.98 · Betano
3.5	27% fair 3.74 best 3.25 · Bet365	73% fair 1.36 best 1.39 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Betano	24% fair 4.23 best 3.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2	1.48 fair best 1.44 · Betano	3.08 fair best 2.90 · Betano
2.25	1.75 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor	2.34 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet
2.5	50% fair 2.02 best 1.90 · Bet365	50% fair 1.98 best 1.98 · Betano
2.75	2.32 fair best 2.16 · SBO	1.76 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
3	2.87 fair best 2.47 · Betano	1.53 fair best 1.57 · Betano
3.5	27% fair 3.74 best 3.25 · Bet365	73% fair 1.36 best 1.39 · Betano
4.5	12% fair 8.33 best 7.00 · BetVictor	88% fair 1.14 best 1.15 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · William Hill	72% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · Bet365	65% fair 1.53 best 1.45 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Juve Stabia	Hellas Verona
−0.5	34% fair 2.96 best 2.77 · Betano	66% fair 1.51 best 1.47 · Betano
−0.25	2.50 fair best 2.35 · Bet365	1.67 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
0	2.06 fair best 1.98 · Bet365	1.94 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
+0.25	1.74 fair best 1.80 · SBO	2.35 fair best 2.15 · Bet365
+0.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano	36% fair 2.77 best 2.52 · Betano

All lines (10)

Line	Juve Stabia	Hellas Verona
−1	5.72 fair best 4.65 · Bet365	1.21 fair best 1.18 · Bet365
−0.75	3.77 fair best 3.45 · Bet365	1.36 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.5	34% fair 2.96 best 2.77 · Betano	66% fair 1.51 best 1.47 · Betano
−0.25	2.50 fair best 2.35 · Bet365	1.67 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
0	2.06 fair best 1.98 · Bet365	1.94 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
+0.25	1.74 fair best 1.80 · SBO	2.35 fair best 2.15 · Bet365
+0.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano	36% fair 2.77 best 2.52 · Betano
+0.75	1.40 fair best 1.39 · BetVictor	3.48 fair best 3.00 · Bet365
+1	1.24 fair best 1.29 · Betano	5.10 fair best 4.10 · Bet365
+1.25	1.25 fair best 1.19 · Bet365	4.94 fair best 4.50 · Bet365

Goals by team

Juve Stabia goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	36% fair 2.75 best 2.50 · Bet365	64% fair 1.57 best 1.55 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	75% fair 1.33 best 1.33 · Bet365	25% fair 4.06 best 3.40 · Marathonbet
1.5	36% fair 2.75 best 2.50 · Bet365	64% fair 1.57 best 1.55 · Betano

Hellas Verona goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	38% fair 2.63 best 2.30 · BetVictor	62% fair 1.61 best 1.62 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.25 · Bet365	23% fair 4.28 best 3.75 · Bet365
1.5	38% fair 2.63 best 2.30 · BetVictor	62% fair 1.61 best 1.62 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
28% fair 3.58 best 3.40 · BetVictor	43% fair 2.34 best 2.20 · William Hill	29% fair 3.41 best 3.25 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	71% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano	29% fair 3.41 best 3.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	1.93 fair best 1.89 · SBO	2.07 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
1.5	31% fair 3.18 best 2.80 · Betano	69% fair 1.46 best 1.45 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	71% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano	29% fair 3.41 best 3.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.58 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor	2.73 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet
1	1.93 fair best 1.89 · SBO	2.07 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
1.25	2.54 fair best 2.21 · BetVictor	1.65 fair best 1.57 · BetVictor
1.5	31% fair 3.18 best 2.80 · Betano	69% fair 1.46 best 1.45 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–113.5%fair 7.38
1–28.4%fair 11.94
0–18.3%fair 12.02
0–08.2%fair 12.22
2–18.1%fair 12.39
1–08.0%fair 12.53

Total goals

08%
116%
226%
322%
4+28%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Juve Stabia at home, Hellas Verona away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Juve Stabia	Hellas Verona
Goals scored per game	1.20 (1.40)	1.60 (1.00)
Goals conceded per game	1.20 (1.10)	1.60 (1.80)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (40%)	60% (60%)
Both teams scored	60% (60%)	80% (80%)
Clean sheets	20% (20%)	10% (0%)
Failed to score	20% (20%)	10% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.32 / 1.14	1.61 / 1.80
Corners for / against per game	4.00 / 4.40	5.80 / 4.20
Cards per game	1.70	2.30

Over 2.5 goals: Juve Stabia in 50% and Hellas Verona in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 50% for this match.

From 10 matches for Juve Stabia and 10 for Hellas Verona. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Tue, 27 Oct · 10:00 UTC

1 Juve Stabia · soft 3.00 (Codere (IT)) · fair 2.97 · edge +1.1%

Opening sharp

3.09

Current Value still active

soft 2.90 · sharp 2.75 · fair 2.88 · edge +0.5%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Juve Stabia averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Hellas Verona averaged 1.6 and 2.0 over 5.

Since opening around 3.09, the sharp market price on Juve Stabia has shortened to 2.75 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Juve Stabia has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Juve Stabia here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Juve Stabia

W W D D D

avg 1.4 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Hellas Verona

D D L W L

avg 1.6 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.32

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Juve Stabia

Odds when flagged 3.00

Fair odds 2.97

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 6d414498efec2c34

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit