MLS Thu, 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC

St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 00:05 UTC
Check my slip

Most likely: St. Louis City 56%
Over 2.5 goals: 69%
Most likely score 2–1 (9.3%, estimate)

The sharp market makes St. Louis City the most likely outcome at 56% — fair odds of 1.79. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — St. Louis City: LLDWW; Portland Timbers: WDLDL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on St. Louis City anyway? The best price we see is 1.80 at 1xBet, +0.4% against the fair odds of 1.79. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 56%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	56%	21%	23%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	59%	21%	21%
Our model	59%	24%	17%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.71

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.65 / 4.35 / 4.35

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.79

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.80 / 4.40 / 4.60

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.79	4.68	4.38
Pinnacle sharp	1.74	4.33	4.06
1xBet	1.80 ★	4.32	4.10
888sport	1.75	3.90	3.80
BetAnything	1.74	4.40 ★	4.03
BetOnline.ag	1.74	4.40 ★	4.03
BetVictor	1.70	4.20	4.10
Coolbet	1.70	4.40 ★	4.20
LeoVegas (SE)	1.70	4.40 ★	4.60 ★

Show all 40 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.77	4.50	4.20
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.77	4.60	4.20
Matchbook exchange	1.78	4.50	4.20
Smarkets exchange	1.76	4.50	4.10
Betano (UK) UK-only	1.70	4.20	4.10
Betclic (FR)	1.67	3.90	3.65
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.70	4.33	4.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.67	4.20	3.75
Betsson	1.70	4.05	4.10
Betway UK-only	1.73	4.33	3.80
BoyleSports UK-only	1.67	4.00	3.60
Casumo UK-only	1.65	4.25	4.35
Coral UK-only	1.70	3.80	3.75
GTbets	1.78	4.20	3.94
Grosvenor UK-only	1.63	4.10	4.20
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.70	3.80	3.75
LeoVegas UK-only	1.73	4.00	3.80
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.63	4.10	4.25
Marathonbet	1.73	4.15	3.94
MyBookie.ag	1.74	4.10	3.85
Nordic Bet	1.70	4.05	4.10
PMU (FR)	1.56	3.95	4.00
Paddy Power UK-only	1.70	4.33	4.00
Sky Bet UK-only	1.67	4.20	3.90
Tipico	1.62	4.20	4.10
Unibet (FR)	1.64	4.00	3.70
Unibet (NL)	1.65	4.25	4.35
Unibet (SE)	1.65	4.25	4.35
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.63	4.10	4.20
William Hill	1.75	3.90	3.75
Winamax (DE)	1.70	4.10	3.65
Winamax (FR)	1.68	4.00	3.55

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

Beat the closing line

Which way will the market move before kick-off? Pick and score your closing line value. Free, no money.

Picking needs a free account: an email address, no card.

How the game works →

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 12:30 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	88% fair 1.14 best 1.14 · Betano	12% fair 8.21 best 6.50 · Bet365
2.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Betano	31% fair 3.24 best 3.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5	46% fair 2.15 best 2.07 · SBO	54% fair 1.87 best 1.87 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	88% fair 1.14 best 1.14 · Betano	12% fair 8.21 best 6.50 · Bet365
2.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Betano	31% fair 3.24 best 3.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.54 fair best 1.47 · BetVictor	2.86 fair best 2.49 · Marathonbet
3	1.67 fair best 1.65 · Betano	2.49 fair best 2.32 · Betano
3.25	1.90 fair best 1.84 · SBO	2.11 fair best 1.98 · SBO
3.5	46% fair 2.15 best 2.07 · SBO	54% fair 1.87 best 1.87 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.75	2.44 fair best 2.17 · Marathonbet	1.69 fair best 1.59 · BetVictor
4	2.90 fair best 2.75 · Betano	1.53 fair best 1.47 · Betano
4.5	27% fair 3.71 best 3.40 · Bet365	73% fair 1.37 best 1.36 · Betfair Sportsbook
5.5	14% fair 7.28 best 6.50 · BetVictor	86% fair 1.16 best 1.15 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
77% fair 1.30 best 1.27 · Betano	79% fair 1.27 best 1.23 · Betano	44% fair 2.26 best 2.15 · SBO

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	St. Louis City	Portland Timbers
−1.25	2.76 fair best 2.44 · BetVictor	1.57 fair best 1.52 · Bet365
−1	2.39 fair best 2.32 · Betano	1.72 fair best 1.68 · Bet365
−0.75	2.03 fair best 1.90 · Bet365	1.97 fair best 1.96 · SBO
−0.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.78 · Betano	45% fair 2.23 best 2.17 · SBO
−0.25	1.61 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.64 fair best 2.42 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	St. Louis City	Portland Timbers
−1.75	3.84 fair best 3.30 · Bet365	1.35 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−1.5	32% fair 3.11 best 2.92 · Betano	68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Bet365
−1.25	2.76 fair best 2.44 · BetVictor	1.57 fair best 1.52 · Bet365
−1	2.39 fair best 2.32 · Betano	1.72 fair best 1.68 · Bet365
−0.75	2.03 fair best 1.90 · Bet365	1.97 fair best 1.96 · SBO
−0.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.78 · Betano	45% fair 2.23 best 2.17 · SBO
−0.25	1.61 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.64 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
0	1.40 fair best 1.35 · Bet365	3.50 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+0.25	1.33 fair best 1.27 · Bet365	4.01 fair best 3.55 · Bet365

Goals by team

St. Louis City goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	36% fair 2.81 best 2.55 · Betano	64% fair 1.55 best 1.53 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · Betano	35% fair 2.84 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	36% fair 2.81 best 2.55 · Betano	64% fair 1.55 best 1.53 · Betfair Sportsbook

Portland Timbers goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.38 · Bet365	61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Betfair Sportsbook	24% fair 4.25 best 3.60 · BetVictor
1.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.38 · Bet365	61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
44% fair 2.29 best 2.27 · Betano	35% fair 2.87 best 2.62 · William Hill	21% fair 4.67 best 4.10 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	46% fair 2.18 best 2.12 · Betano	54% fair 1.85 best 1.85 · SBO

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.42 fair best 1.47 · Betano	3.38 fair best 2.82 · Marathonbet
1.25	1.79 fair best 1.66 · BetVictor	2.26 fair best 2.05 · BetVictor
1.5	46% fair 2.18 best 2.12 · Betano	54% fair 1.85 best 1.85 · SBO
1.75	2.68 fair best 2.25 · BetVictor	1.59 fair best 1.55 · BetVictor
2	3.92 fair best 3.30 · Betano	1.34 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–19.3%fair 10.71
1–19.0%fair 11.09
3–16.8%fair 14.61
2–06.8%fair 14.65
2–26.4%fair 15.65
1–25.8%fair 17.20

Total goals

03%
19%
218%
321%
4+48%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: St. Louis City at home, Portland Timbers away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	St. Louis City	Portland Timbers
Goals scored per game	2.60 (2.60)	1.60 (1.40)
Goals conceded per game	1.70 (1.20)	2.10 (2.00)
Over 2.5 goals	90% (70%)	70% (60%)
Both teams scored	70% (70%)	70% (70%)
Clean sheets	20% (30%)	10% (0%)
Failed to score	20% (10%)	30% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.77 / 1.78	1.68 / 1.50
Corners for / against per game	4.20 / 5.70	5.40 / 3.80
Cards per game	1.90	1.20

Over 2.5 goals: St. Louis City in 90% and Portland Timbers in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 69% for this match.

From 10 matches for St. Louis City and 10 for Portland Timbers. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

St. Louis City averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Portland Timbers averaged 1.4 and 2.0 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

St. Louis City has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on St. Louis City here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

St. Louis City

L L D W W

avg 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Portland Timbers

W D L D L

avg 1.4 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

10 Sep 2026 Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis City

13 Jul 2025 St. Louis City 2–1 Portland Timbers

08 Jun 2025 Portland Timbers 2–1 St. Louis City

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.65

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 6f86aa21170666c0

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit