Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · Latest results
When the micro-edge on Sporting CP was recorded live, the sharp market made Sporting CP the most likely outcome at 80% (fair odds 1.25). On Sporting CP, Marathonbet offered 1.26 against a fair price of 1.25, a +0.6% gap: too small to call value (Micro-edge). Recent form — Casa Pia: WWLWL; Sporting CP: LLWWD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 9' David Sousa · yellow card · Casa Pia
- 13' 0–1 Pedro Lima Barros · goal · assist Iván Fresneda · Sporting CP
- 20' Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira · yellow card · Casa Pia
- 29' Silas Andersen · yellow card · Sporting CP
- 90+3' Maximiliano Araujo · yellow card · Sporting CP
- 90+4' 0–2 Geny Catamo · goal · assist Iván Fresneda · Sporting CP
Match stats
| Match stats | Casa Pia | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 45 | 55 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.39 | 2.71 |
| Shots | 12 | 23 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 11 |
| Corners | 3 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 15 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 9 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Casa Pia win 10% did not happen
- Draw 16% did not happen
- Sporting CP win 74% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 64% did not happen
- Micro-edge flagged before kick-off (under 1.5%, monitor only): 2 · Sporting CP @ 1.26 (Marathonbet) Won
CLV -6.6% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
- 1 P. Sequeira GK
- 18 Geraldes DF
- 3 Kaly DF
- 43 David Sousa DF
- 75 Pedro Rosas DF
- 24 S. Pérez MF
- 80 L. Ofori MF
- 11 M. El Boukammiri MF
- 70 João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo MF
- 77 B. Pauwels MF
- 9 Henrique Araújo FW
Bench: K. Prieto, Cassiano, Silvi, Abdu Dafe, Felipe Silva, Gabi Pereira, João Goulart, A. Jatta, JP, J. Livolant, Ivan Mandić, E. Maurin
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Regular starters not in the XI
- Silvi — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
- 30 Kaique GK
- 22 Iván Fresneda DF
- 72 Eduardo Quaresma DF
- 25 Gonçalo Inácio DF
- 20 M. Araújo DF
- 5 Sergi Altimira MF
- 4 S. Andersen MF
- 31 Luis Guilherme MF
- 21 Pedro Lima MF
- 19 N. Irankunda MF
- 97 L. Suárez FW
Bench: João Simões, Rui Silva, Rafael Ferreira Nel, F. Ioannidis, Flávio Gonçalves, Eduardo Felicíssimo, I. Doumbia, J. Derry, Geny Catamo, Ibrahima Ba, G. Vagiannidis, M. Zekri
Coach: Rui Borges
Regular starters not in the XI
- I. Doumbia — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Geny Catamo — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 10 / 16 / 74% when the line-ups came out, 10 / 16 / 74% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Sporting CP (2) was priced at 1.26 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.25 — a +0.6% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 7% | 12% | 81% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 10% | 12% | 77% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Casa Pia averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Sporting CP averaged 2.0 and 1.6 over 5.
Since opening around 1.21, the sharp market price on Sporting CP has drifted to 1.35 — the market has moved against this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
