UEFA Champions League Tue, 03 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

Fair price as of 22:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:20 UTC
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Most likely: Sporting CP 49%
Over 2.5 goals: 57%
Both teams score: 59%
Most likely score 1–1 (11.6%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Sporting CP the most likely outcome at 49% — fair odds of 2.05. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Shakhtar Donetsk: DLWWW; Sporting CP: WLLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 27 Oct: 2 · Sporting CP at +2.8%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +2.8% @ 2.00 · 27 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 1 hour ago

We flagged +2.8% on 2 on 27 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Sporting CP anyway? The best price we see is 2.02 at Codere (IT), -1.6% against the fair odds of 2.05. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 75%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	26%	25%	49%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	25%	23%	51%
Our model	37%	24%	40%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.30

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 3.67 / 4.01 / 1.88

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds now 1.33

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 3.82 / 3.92 / 2.02

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 39 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	3.77	4.03	2.05
Pinnacle sharp	3.62	3.87	2.01
1xBet	3.82 ★	3.92 ★	2.00
888sport	3.50	3.60	1.91
BetAnything	3.63	3.85	2.00
Codere (IT)	3.60	3.60	2.02 ★
Coolbet	3.75	3.85	2.02 ★
Unibet (NL)	3.80	3.80	2.02 ★
Unibet (SE)	3.80	3.80	2.02 ★

Show all 39 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	3.75	3.85	2.10
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	3.75	3.85	2.10
Matchbook exchange	3.75	3.85	2.10
Smarkets exchange	3.70	3.85	2.08
BetOnline.ag	3.63	3.85	2.00
BetVictor	3.50	3.70	2.00
Betclic (FR)	3.40	3.55	1.91
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	3.60	3.75	2.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only	3.50	3.75	2.00
Betsson	3.60	3.70	1.98
Betway UK-only	3.40	3.80	1.95
BoyleSports UK-only	3.50	3.75	1.91
Casumo UK-only	3.40	3.40	1.88
Coral UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.91
GTbets	3.74	3.66	1.93
Grosvenor UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.94
Ladbrokes UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.91
LeoVegas UK-only	3.40	3.60	1.98
LeoVegas (SE)	3.60	3.60	1.94
LiveScore Bet UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.95
Marathonbet	3.72	3.82	1.95
Nordic Bet	3.60	3.75	2.00
PMU (FR)	3.40	3.40	1.85
Paddy Power UK-only	3.50	3.60	1.95
Sky Bet UK-only	3.50	3.75	1.95
Unibet (FR)	3.30	3.40	1.85
Unibet (UK) UK-only	3.50	3.60	1.98
Virgin Bet UK-only	3.60	3.60	1.95
William Hill	3.50	3.60	1.91
Winamax (DE)	3.45	3.80	1.92
Winamax (FR)	3.35	3.70	1.88

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Shakhtar Donetsk

Out Pedrinho · injury started 3 of 10 team matches this season
Out P. Obah · other reason started 1 of 10 team matches this season
Out D. Tvardovskyi · other reason
Out Eguinaldo · injury
Out M. Shved · other reason
Out T. Puzankov · other reason
Out V. Korniyenko · other reason
Doubtful Marlon · injury

Sporting CP

Out R. Zalazar · injury started 6 of 10 team matches this season
Out Z. Debast · injury started 5 of 10 team matches this season
Out N. Santos · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 22:19 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.32 best 2.28 · 1xBet
3.5	35% fair 2.89 best 2.80 · Betfair Sportsbook	65% fair 1.53 best 1.48 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.28 fair best 1.26 · BetVictor	4.51 fair best 3.90 · 1xBet
2	1.35 fair best 1.35 · Betano	3.88 fair best 3.51 · 1xBet
2.25	1.55 fair best 1.49 · BetVictor	2.82 fair best 2.58 · 1xBet
2.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.32 best 2.28 · 1xBet
2.75	1.94 fair best 1.90 · SBO	2.06 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
3	2.24 fair best 2.20 · Betano	1.80 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet
3.25	2.57 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
3.5	35% fair 2.89 best 2.80 · Betfair Sportsbook	65% fair 1.53 best 1.48 · 1xBet
3.75	3.54 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet	1.39 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet

Both teams to score

Yes	No
59% fair 1.70 best 1.62 · William Hill	41% fair 2.43 best 2.38 · Betfair Sportsbook

Double chance

1X	12	X2
51% fair 1.95 best 1.90 · 1xBet	75% fair 1.33 best 1.30 · 1xBet	74% fair 1.36 best 1.33 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Shakhtar Donetsk	Sporting CP
0	2.87 fair best 2.82 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.25 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet	1.80 fair best 1.76 · SBO
+0.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.87 · SBO	48% fair 2.07 best 2.01 · SBO
+0.75	1.73 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet	2.38 fair best 2.27 · 1xBet
+1	1.51 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet	2.95 fair best 2.87 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Shakhtar Donetsk	Sporting CP
−0.5	26% fair 3.90 best 3.45 · Bet365	74% fair 1.35 best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.25	3.38 fair best 3.10 · 1xBet	1.42 fair best 1.35 · 1xBet
0	2.87 fair best 2.82 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.25 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet	1.80 fair best 1.76 · SBO
+0.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.87 · SBO	48% fair 2.07 best 2.01 · SBO
+0.75	1.73 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet	2.38 fair best 2.27 · 1xBet
+1	1.51 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet	2.95 fair best 2.87 · Betano
+1.25	1.42 fair best 1.38 · 1xBet	3.38 fair best 3.15 · BetVictor
+1.5	74% fair 1.36 best 1.30 · 1xBet	26% fair 3.81 best 3.55 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Shakhtar Donetsk goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook	66% fair 1.51 best 1.50 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · Betano	28% fair 3.52 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook	66% fair 1.51 best 1.50 · Marathonbet

Sporting CP goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.85 · Betano	48% fair 2.07 best 2.02 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.85 · Betano	48% fair 2.07 best 2.02 · Marathonbet
2.5	24% fair 4.11 best 3.75 · Bet365	76% fair 1.32 best 1.30 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
23% fair 4.42 best 4.10 · 1xBet	39% fair 2.53 best 2.40 · William Hill	38% fair 2.64 best 2.55 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.21 fair best 2.13 · SBO	1.83 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet
1.5	37% fair 2.71 best 2.50 · Bet365	63% fair 1.58 best 1.57 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.46 fair best 1.42 · BetVictor	3.16 fair best 2.91 · 1xBet
1	1.70 fair best 1.67 · Betano	2.44 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet
1.25	2.21 fair best 2.13 · SBO	1.83 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet
1.5	37% fair 2.71 best 2.50 · Bet365	63% fair 1.58 best 1.57 · 1xBet
1.75	3.57 fair best 2.90 · 1xBet	1.39 fair best 1.37 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.69 · Marathonbet	46% fair 2.19 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
9	2.10 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet	1.91 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
9.5	41% fair 2.43 best 2.19 · Marathonbet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.73 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8	1.60 fair best 1.45 · 1xBet	2.67 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet
8.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.69 · Marathonbet	46% fair 2.19 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
9	2.10 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet	1.91 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
9.5	41% fair 2.43 best 2.19 · Marathonbet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.73 · Betfair Sportsbook
10	2.89 fair best 2.40 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Shakhtar Donetsk	Sporting CP
−1	2.78 fair best 2.40 · 1xBet	1.56 fair best 1.51 · Marathonbet
−0.5	43% fair 2.34 —	57% fair 1.75 —
0	2.11 fair best 2.00 · Bet365	1.90 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet
+0.5	53% fair 1.90 best 2.00 · Bet365	47% fair 2.11 best 1.80 · Bet365
+1	1.69 fair best 1.55 · Marathonbet	2.45 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
3.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.44 · Betano	27% fair 3.71 best 2.67 · Betano
4.5	53% fair 1.87 best 1.88 · Betano	47% fair 2.15 best 1.88 · Betano
5.5	36% fair 2.75 best 2.57 · Betano	64% fair 1.57 best 1.47 · Betano

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
3.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.44 · Betano	27% fair 3.71 best 2.67 · Betano
4	1.51 fair —	2.97 fair —
4.5	53% fair 1.87 best 1.88 · Betano	47% fair 2.15 best 1.88 · Betano
5	2.27 fair —	1.79 fair —
5.5	36% fair 2.75 best 2.57 · Betano	64% fair 1.57 best 1.47 · Betano
6	3.49 fair —	1.40 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–111.6%fair 8.63
1–29.5%fair 10.47
0–18.3%fair 11.98
0–27.8%fair 12.87
2–16.8%fair 14.80
2–25.9%fair 17.04

Total goals

06%
114%
223%
322%
4+35%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Shakhtar Donetsk at home, Sporting CP away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Shakhtar Donetsk	Sporting CP
Goals scored per game	1.60 (1.90)	2.20 (1.90)
Goals conceded per game	0.70 (1.00)	1.00 (0.60)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (60%)	60% (40%)
Both teams scored	40% (50%)	60% (50%)
Clean sheets	40% (30%)	40% (50%)
Failed to score	30% (30%)	0% (20%)
Corners for / against per game	7.33 / 3.17	5.10 / 3.00
Cards per game	2.50	2.10

Over 2.5 goals: Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% and Sporting CP in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 57% for this match.

Both teams scored in 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk's and 60% of Sporting CP's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 59% here.

From 10 matches for Shakhtar Donetsk and 10 for Sporting CP. xG, corners and cards: 6 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Shakhtar Donetsk averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Sporting CP averaged 2.0 and 1.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Sporting CP is averaging 2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Sporting CP here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Shakhtar Donetsk

D L W W W

avg 1.6 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Sporting CP

W L L W W

avg 2 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Tue, 27 Oct · 11:00 UTC

2 Sporting CP · soft 2.00 (Codere (IT)) · fair 1.95 · edge +2.8%

Opening sharp

1.81

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.24

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Sporting CP

Odds when flagged 2.00

Fair odds 1.95

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 4c5ca180a989dda0

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit