Ligue 1 Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 16:15 UTC

Lyon vs Angers

Fair price as of 15:24 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 15:50 UTC
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Most likely: Lyon 70%
Over 2.5 goals: 59%
Both teams score: 50%
Most likely score 2–0 (11.9%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Lyon the most likely outcome at 70% — fair odds of 1.43. On Lyon, 1xBet offers 1.45 against a fair price of 1.43, a +1.4% gap: too small to call value, so we only monitor it (Micro-edge). Recent form — Lyon: LLWWL; Angers: DLLWD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Micro-edge on 1 · Lyon: +1.4% at 1xBet, under 1.5% (monitor only) · Flag recorded 24 Oct: 1 · Lyon at +1.0%

Value check Micro-edge

1 Lyon @ 1.45

Bookmaker 1xBet

Price observed Sun, 01 Nov · 15:24 UTC

Flag recorded Sat, 24 Oct · 05:30 UTC @ 1.44 (LeoVegas (SE)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 1.43

1xBet 1.45

Market Gap +1.4%

Edge at detection +1.0% @ 1.44 · 24 Oct

Edge right now +1.4% @ 1.45 · 13 minutes ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Lyon (1) is priced at 1.45 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.43 — a +1.4% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

The market's most likely result

1 Home win 70%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	70%	18%	12%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	70%	18%	12%
Our model	77%	15%	8%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.42

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.39 / 5.04 / 7.06

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 13 minutes ago

Fair odds now 1.43

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.45 / 5.20 / 8.00

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.43	5.47	8.53
Pinnacle sharp	1.41	5.13	7.87
1xBet	1.45 ★	4.97	7.90
BetOnline.ag	1.42	5.05 ★	7.50
Coolbet	1.44	4.90	7.60
LeoVegas (SE)	1.43	5.00	8.00 ★
Marathonbet	1.43	4.90	7.80
Sky Bet UK-only	1.36	5.00	8.00 ★
Unibet (SE)	1.43	5.00	8.00 ★

Show all 40 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.44	5.10	8.60
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.44	5.10	8.60
Smarkets exchange	1.43	5.00	8.40
888sport	1.40	4.50	7.00
BetVictor	1.40	4.75	7.50
Betano (UK) UK-only	1.40	4.75	7.50
Betclic (FR)	1.38	4.60	6.25
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.36	4.75	7.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.40	5.00	7.50
Betsson	1.40	4.70	7.40
Betway UK-only	1.40	4.75	7.00
BoyleSports UK-only	1.36	4.50	7.00
Casumo UK-only	1.40	4.70	7.00
Codere (IT)	1.42	4.90	7.00
Coral UK-only	1.40	4.80	7.00
Everygame	1.36	5.00	7.50
GTbets	1.40	4.85	7.26
Grosvenor UK-only	1.38	4.60	7.00
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.40	4.80	7.00
LeoVegas UK-only	1.40	4.75	6.75
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.40	4.60	7.00
Nordic Bet	1.40	4.70	7.40
PMU (FR)	1.36	4.40	6.75
Paddy Power UK-only	1.36	4.50	7.50
Tipico	1.37	4.80	7.50
Unibet (FR)	1.35	4.60	6.60
Unibet (NL)	1.40	4.70	7.00
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.42	4.75	6.50
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.40	4.60	7.00
William Hill	1.40	4.50	7.00
Winamax (DE)	1.41	4.70	6.50
Winamax (FR)	1.39	4.60	6.25

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Lyon

Out T. Morton · injury started 6 of 8 team matches this season
Out L. Openda · injury started 5 of 8 team matches this season
Out P. Sulc · injury started 5 of 8 team matches this season
Out M. Ouedraogo · injury started 1 of 8 team matches this season
Out S. Kango · other reason started 1 of 3 team matches this season

Angers

Out A. El Ouazzani · injury started 7 of 8 team matches this season

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 15:19 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	59% fair 1.70 best 1.71 · 1xBet	41% fair 2.44 best 2.32 · 1xBet
3.5	36% fair 2.79 best 2.72 · Coolbet	64% fair 1.56 best 1.51 · Coolbet

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.27 fair —	4.71 fair —
2	1.32 fair best 1.32 · Coolbet	4.11 fair best 3.70 · Coolbet
2.25	1.51 fair —	2.97 fair —
2.5	59% fair 1.70 best 1.71 · 1xBet	41% fair 2.44 best 2.32 · 1xBet
2.75	1.87 fair —	2.15 fair —
3	2.14 fair best 2.13 · Coolbet	1.88 fair best 1.79 · BetOnline.ag
3.25	2.45 fair —	1.69 fair —
3.5	36% fair 2.79 best 2.72 · Coolbet	64% fair 1.56 best 1.51 · Coolbet
3.75	3.38 fair —	1.42 fair —
4	3.95 fair best 4.25 · Coolbet	1.34 fair best 1.29 · 1xBet

Both teams to score

Yes	No
50% fair 1.99 best 1.85 · William Hill	50% fair 2.01 best 1.91 · William Hill

Double chance

1X	12	X2
88% fair 1.13 best 1.12 · Betano	82% fair 1.22 best 1.20 · 1xBet	30% fair 3.33 best 3.02 · Marathonbet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Lyon	Angers
−1.75	2.55 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet	1.65 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
−1.5	46% fair 2.19 best 2.17 · 1xBet	54% fair 1.84 best 1.80 · 1xBet
−1.25	1.92 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet	2.09 fair best 2.02 · SBO
−1	1.65 fair best 1.62 · Betano	2.53 fair best 2.35 · Betano
−0.75	1.51 fair best 1.48 · Bet365	2.95 fair best 2.62 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Lyon	Angers
−2.25	3.67 fair best 3.30 · Bet365	1.37 fair best 1.34 · 1xBet
−2	3.23 fair best 2.97 · 1xBet	1.45 fair best 1.42 · Betano
−1.75	2.55 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet	1.65 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
−1.5	46% fair 2.19 best 2.17 · 1xBet	54% fair 1.84 best 1.80 · 1xBet
−1.25	1.92 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet	2.09 fair best 2.02 · SBO
−1	1.65 fair best 1.62 · Betano	2.53 fair best 2.35 · Betano
−0.75	1.51 fair best 1.48 · Bet365	2.95 fair best 2.62 · 1xBet
−0.5	70% fair 1.42 best 1.42 · Betano	30% fair 3.38 best 3.00 · Betano
−0.25	1.29 fair best 1.26 · Bet365	4.43 fair best 3.80 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Lyon goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.38 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.66 best 1.58 · 1xBet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · 1xBet	31% fair 3.20 best 2.76 · 1xBet
2.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.38 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.66 best 1.58 · 1xBet
3.5	18% fair 5.46 best 4.80 · Betfair Sportsbook	82% fair 1.22 best 1.21 · Betano

Angers goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	59% fair 1.69 best 1.62 · Betano	41% fair 2.46 best 2.25 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	59% fair 1.69 best 1.62 · Betano	41% fair 2.46 best 2.25 · Bet365
1.5	21% fair 4.75 best 4.25 · 1xBet	79% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
53% fair 1.88 best 1.90 · Betano	34% fair 2.92 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook	13% fair 7.95 best 7.00 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.01 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.91 · SBO
1.5	40% fair 2.47 best 2.37 · Betano	60% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Bet365

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.39 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor	3.58 fair best 2.90 · 1xBet
1	1.57 fair best 1.60 · Betano	2.76 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
1.25	2.01 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.91 · SBO
1.5	40% fair 2.47 best 2.37 · Betano	60% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Bet365
1.75	3.16 fair best 2.88 · 1xBet	1.46 fair best 1.41 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
9.5	59% fair 1.71 best 1.56 · Marathonbet	41% fair 2.41 best 2.35 · Betano
10	1.89 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet	2.12 fair best 2.03 · 1xBet
10.5	47% fair 2.15 best 2.00 · Bet365	53% fair 1.87 best 1.85 · Betano

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
9	1.50 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet	2.99 fair best 2.67 · 1xBet
9.5	59% fair 1.71 best 1.56 · Marathonbet	41% fair 2.41 best 2.35 · Betano
10	1.89 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet	2.12 fair best 2.03 · 1xBet
10.5	47% fair 2.15 best 2.00 · Bet365	53% fair 1.87 best 1.85 · Betano
11	2.52 fair best 2.12 · 1xBet	1.66 fair best 1.61 · 1xBet
11.5	35% fair 2.83 best 2.51 · Marathonbet	65% fair 1.55 best 1.50 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Lyon	Angers
−3.5	41% fair 2.42 best 2.20 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.58 · 1xBet
−3	2.15 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.87 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
−2.5	52% fair 1.92 best 1.82 · Bet365	48% fair 2.09 best 1.98 · Bet365
−2	1.71 fair best 1.61 · 1xBet	2.40 fair best 2.15 · 1xBet
−1.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.49 · 1xBet	37% fair 2.69 best 2.40 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Lyon	Angers
−4	2.63 fair best 2.55 · 1xBet	1.61 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet
−3.5	41% fair 2.42 best 2.20 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.58 · 1xBet
−3	2.15 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.87 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
−2.5	52% fair 1.92 best 1.82 · Bet365	48% fair 2.09 best 1.98 · Bet365
−2	1.71 fair best 1.61 · 1xBet	2.40 fair best 2.15 · 1xBet
−1.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.49 · 1xBet	37% fair 2.69 best 2.40 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	67% fair 1.50 best 1.40 · Betano	33% fair 3.01 best 2.82 · Betano
3.5	44% fair 2.26 best 1.90 · Betano	56% fair 1.79 best 1.88 · Betano
4.5	27% fair 3.74 best 2.72 · Betano	73% fair 1.36 best 1.42 · Betano

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
2	1.19 fair —	6.26 fair —
2.5	67% fair 1.50 best 1.40 · Betano	33% fair 3.01 best 2.82 · Betano
3	1.76 fair —	2.32 fair —
3.5	44% fair 2.26 best 1.90 · Betano	56% fair 1.79 best 1.88 · Betano
4	3.08 fair —	1.48 fair —
4.5	27% fair 3.74 best 2.72 · Betano	73% fair 1.36 best 1.42 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–011.9%fair 8.39
1–010.4%fair 9.60
2–19.6%fair 10.42
3–08.9%fair 11.18
1–18.7%fair 11.52
3–17.2%fair 13.87

Total goals

05%
114%
222%
322%
4+37%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Lyon at home, Angers away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Lyon	Angers
Goals scored per game	1.60 (2.40)	1.10 (0.90)
Goals conceded per game	1.30 (1.50)	1.70 (2.10)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (90%)	40% (50%)
Both teams scored	60% (70%)	60% (60%)
Clean sheets	20% (20%)	30% (20%)
Failed to score	30% (10%)	30% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.58 / 1.23	1.32 / 1.78
Corners for / against per game	4.70 / 6.50	5.40 / 5.50
Cards per game	1.40	1.60

Over 2.5 goals: Lyon in 70% and Angers in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 59% for this match.

Both teams scored in 60% of Lyon's and 60% of Angers's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 50% here.

From 10 matches for Lyon and 10 for Angers. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Lyon averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Angers averaged 1.0 and 2.0 over 5.

The sharp market price on Lyon has barely moved since opening (1.40 to 1.41) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Lyon has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Lyon here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Lyon

L L W W L

avg 1.2 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Angers

D L L W D

avg 1 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

05 Apr 2026 Angers 0–0 Lyon

19 Sep 2025 Lyon 1–0 Angers

17 May 2025 Lyon 2–0 Angers

07 Dec 2024 Angers 0–3 Lyon

25 Feb 2023 Angers 1–3 Lyon

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value improving

Detected · Sat, 24 Oct · 05:30 UTC

1 Lyon · soft 1.44 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 1.43 · edge +1.0%

Opening sharp

1.40

Current Value improving

soft 1.45 · sharp 1.41 · fair 1.43 · edge +1.4%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.39

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Lyon

Odds when flagged 1.44

Fair odds 1.43

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint da7d07d336fc3ee9

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit