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Argentina Liga Profesional

Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS

The sharp market makes Argentinos JRS the most likely outcome at 36% — fair odds of 2.76. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Atletico Tucuman: WLDLL; Argentinos JRS: WWDWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 28 Oct: 1 · Atletico Tucuman at +3.5%

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +3.5% @ 3.30 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +3.5% on 1 on 28 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Argentinos JRS anyway? The best price we see is 2.64 at BetAnything, -4.2% against the fair odds of 2.76. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 68%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now32%32%36%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded33%32%35%
Our model27%26%47%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.47
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.89 / 2.93 / 2.68

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.46
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 3.05 / 3.10 / 2.65
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 27 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 3.113.172.76
Pinnacle sharp 3.00 3.06 2.70
1xBet 3.02 ★ 3.02 2.57
BetAnything 3.00 3.10 ★ 2.64 ★
BetOnline.ag 3.00 3.10 ★ 2.64 ★
Betclic (FR) 2.82 2.83 2.43
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 2.88 2.88 2.63
Betfred (UK) UK-only 2.80 3.00 2.50
Betsson 2.90 3.00 2.62
Show all 27 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 3.05 3.05 2.80
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 3.05 3.05 2.80
Smarkets exchange 3.00 3.05 2.78
Betway UK-only 2.88 3.00 2.60
BoyleSports UK-only 2.90 2.90 2.50
Codere (IT) 3.00 2.90 2.60
Ladbrokes UK-only 3.00 3.00 2.50
LeoVegas (SE) 2.80 2.85 2.32
LiveScore Bet UK-only 2.88 2.88 2.35
Marathonbet 2.96 2.96 2.52
Nordic Bet 2.90 3.00 2.62
Paddy Power UK-only 2.80 2.80 2.60
Sky Bet UK-only 2.75 2.75 2.50
Unibet (FR) 2.65 2.65 2.20
Unibet (SE) 3.00 3.05 2.48
Unibet (UK) UK-only 2.90 3.00 2.60
Virgin Bet UK-only 2.88 2.88 2.35
Winamax (DE) 2.80 2.95 2.50
Winamax (FR) 2.70 2.80 2.35

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Starting line-ups

Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 L. Ingolotti GK
  2. 24 L. Di Plácido DF
  3. 26 C. Ferreira DF
  4. 36 Luciano Vallejo DF
  5. 32 J. Infante DF
  6. 5 J. Fernández MF
  7. 11 R. Tesuri MF
  8. 31 L. Godoy MF
  9. 10 F. Nicola MF
  10. 23 N. Laméndola MF
  11. 9 L. Díaz FW

Bench: A. Canelo, M. Brondo, Mauro Carrizo, G. Compagnucci, T. Durso, G. Ferrari, R. Granillo, E. Ham, Ramiro Paunero, F. Pimienta, J. Rodríguez, M. Villa

Coach: J. Falcioni

Regular starters not in the XI

  • L. Vega — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • R. Ruíz Rodríguez — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)

Argentinos JRS 4-3-3

  1. 25 B. Cortés GK
  2. 17 F. Paredes DF
  3. 16 F. Álvarez DF
  4. 4 É. Godoy DF
  5. 20 S. Prieto DF
  6. 5 Facundo Carrizo MF
  7. 15 K. Gutiérrez MF
  8. 11 N. Oroz MF
  9. 7 D. Porcel FW
  10. 9 G. Verón FW
  11. 19 M. Giménez FW

Bench: C. Bravo, K. Coronel, G. Florentín, J. Gho, Santino Gianini, G. Infantino, F. Jainikoski, H. López, M. Mendoza, T. Molina, G. Siri, A. Alcaraz

Coach: N. Diez

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 65% fair 1.53 best 1.45 · Codere (IT) 35% fair 2.87 best 2.50 · Codere (IT)
2.5 37% fair 2.73 best 2.49 · 1xBet 63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Unibet (SE)
3.5 17% fair 6.02 best 4.30 · Codere (IT) 83% fair 1.20 best 1.17 · Codere (IT)
All lines (7)
Line OverUnder
0.5 89% fair 1.12 best 1.09 · Codere (IT) 11% fair 9.12 best 5.80 · Codere (IT)
1.5 65% fair 1.53 best 1.45 · Codere (IT) 35% fair 2.87 best 2.50 · Codere (IT)
1.75 1.68 fair — 2.47 fair —
2 1.95 fair best 1.86 · BetOnline.ag 2.06 fair best 1.92 · BetOnline.ag
2.25 2.34 fair — 1.75 fair —
2.5 37% fair 2.73 best 2.49 · 1xBet 63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Unibet (SE)
3.5 17% fair 6.02 best 4.30 · Codere (IT) 83% fair 1.20 best 1.17 · Codere (IT)

Double chance
1X12X2
64% fair 1.57 best 1.50 · 1xBet 68% fair 1.46 best 1.40 · William Hill 68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Atletico TucumanArgentinos JRS
−0.5 32% fair 3.09 best 2.85 · Betano 68% fair 1.48 best 1.45 · Betano
−0.25 2.58 fair best 2.47 · 1xBet 1.63 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
0 2.08 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
+0.25 1.72 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet 2.39 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+0.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · Betano 35% fair 2.85 best 2.62 · Betano
All lines (9)
Line Atletico TucumanArgentinos JRS
−1 6.70 fair best 5.61 · 1xBet 1.18 fair best 1.15 · Bet365
−0.75 4.09 fair best 3.64 · 1xBet 1.32 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
−0.5 32% fair 3.09 best 2.85 · Betano 68% fair 1.48 best 1.45 · Betano
−0.25 2.58 fair best 2.47 · 1xBet 1.63 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
0 2.08 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
+0.25 1.72 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet 2.39 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+0.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · Betano 35% fair 2.85 best 2.62 · Betano
+0.75 1.37 fair best 1.34 · 1xBet 3.67 fair best 3.30 · Bet365
+1 1.21 fair best 1.18 · Bet365 5.83 fair best 4.65 · Bet365

Goals by team

Atletico Tucuman goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · Betano 33% fair 3.01 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · Betano 33% fair 3.01 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 27% fair 3.73 best 3.25 · Bet365 73% fair 1.37 best 1.35 · Betano

Argentinos JRS goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 68% fair 1.46 best 1.42 · Betano 32% fair 3.16 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 68% fair 1.46 best 1.42 · Betano 32% fair 3.16 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 29% fair 3.49 best 3.00 · Bet365 71% fair 1.40 best 1.38 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1X2
25% fair 3.97 best 3.80 · 1xBet 48% fair 2.08 best 1.95 · William Hill 27% fair 3.75 best 3.40 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 62% fair 1.60 best 1.56 · 1xBet 38% fair 2.66 best 2.50 · William Hill
0.75 1.88 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet 2.14 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
All lines (4)
Line OverUnder
0.5 62% fair 1.60 best 1.56 · 1xBet 38% fair 2.66 best 2.50 · William Hill
0.75 1.88 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet 2.14 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
1 2.60 fair best 2.32 · 1xBet 1.62 fair best 1.62 · Betano
1.25 3.44 fair best 2.91 · 1xBet 1.41 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
8.5 57% fair 1.76 best 1.82 · Betano 43% fair 2.31 best 2.11 · Marathonbet
9 1.97 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet 2.03 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
9.5 44% fair 2.25 best 2.37 · Betano 56% fair 1.80 best 1.67 · Marathonbet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
8 1.55 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet 2.81 fair best 2.28 · 1xBet
8.5 57% fair 1.76 best 1.82 · Betano 43% fair 2.31 best 2.11 · Marathonbet
9 1.97 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet 2.03 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
9.5 44% fair 2.25 best 2.37 · Betano 56% fair 1.80 best 1.67 · Marathonbet
10 2.67 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet 1.60 fair best 1.40 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line Atletico TucumanArgentinos JRS
−1 2.75 fair best 2.55 · 1xBet 1.57 fair best 1.50 · Marathonbet
−0.5 43% fair 2.31 — 57% fair 1.76 —
0 2.05 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 1.95 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
+0.5 55% fair 1.83 best 1.72 · Betano 45% fair 2.20 best 1.98 · Betano
+1 1.64 fair best 1.56 · Marathonbet 2.57 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–114.5%fair 6.90
  2. 0–012.6%fair 7.93
  3. 0–111.9%fair 8.42
  4. 1–010.9%fair 9.13
  5. 1–27.5%fair 13.30
  6. 0–27.2%fair 13.82

Total goals

  • 013%
  • 123%
  • 228%
  • 319%
  • 4+17%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Atletico Tucuman at home, Argentinos JRS away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesAtletico TucumanArgentinos JRS
Goals scored per game 1.00 (0.80) 0.90 (0.90)
Goals conceded per game 1.10 (1.10) 0.80 (1.00)
Over 2.5 goals 40% (40%) 20% (20%)
Both teams scored 50% (50%) 50% (40%)
Clean sheets 40% (50%) 30% (30%)
Failed to score 30% (40%) 30% (40%)
xG for / against per game 0.67 / 1.00 0.94 / 1.08
Corners for / against per game 4.90 / 5.00 6.20 / 3.70
Cards per game 2.50 2.30

Over 2.5 goals: Atletico Tucuman in 40% and Argentinos JRS in 20% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 37% for this match.

From 10 matches for Atletico Tucuman and 10 for Argentinos JRS. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Atletico Tucuman averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Argentinos JRS averaged 1.0 and 0.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Argentinos JRS has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Argentinos JRS here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Atletico Tucuman
W L D L L
avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Argentinos JRS
W W D W L
avg 1 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
19 Apr 2026 Argentinos JRS 1–0 Atletico Tucuman
30 Sep 2024 Argentinos JRS 0–0 Atletico Tucuman
13 May 2023 Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Argentinos JRS
20 Sep 2022 Argentinos JRS 1–2 Atletico Tucuman
21 Apr 2022 Atletico Tucuman 2–4 Argentinos JRS

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected ·
1 Atletico Tucuman · soft 3.30 (Unibet (SE)) · fair 3.19 · edge +3.5%
Opening sharp
2.89

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.39
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Atletico Tucuman
Odds when flagged 3.30
Fair odds 3.19
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint bb7c2c66604b9ae8

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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