← All matches › MLS
MLS

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
  • Line-ups usually from
  • Check my slip

The sharp market makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely outcome at 57% — fair odds of 1.77. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Vancouver Whitecaps: WLWDD; Seattle Sounders: LDDLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here: no bookmaker's odds beat the fair price, so there is no price worth taking.

Betting on Vancouver Whitecaps anyway? The best price we see is 1.75 at BetAnything, -1.0% against the fair odds of 1.77. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's most likely result

1 Home win 57%
1X2
Sharp now57%22%22%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded62%20%18%
Our model53%26%21%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.61
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.57 / 4.63 / 4.99

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.77
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.75 / 4.42 / 4.75
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.774.604.60
Pinnacle sharp 1.73 4.35 4.34
1xBet 1.74 4.37 4.42
888sport 1.70 3.90 4.00
BetAnything 1.75 ★ 4.42 ★ 4.20
BetOnline.ag 1.75 ★ 4.42 ★ 4.20
BetVictor 1.70 4.10 4.20
Betano (UK) UK-only 1.70 4.10 4.20
LeoVegas (SE) 1.68 4.30 4.75 ★
Show all 40 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.76 4.30 4.60
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.76 4.30 4.60
Matchbook exchange 1.77 4.30 4.60
Smarkets exchange 1.76 4.30 4.50
Betclic (FR) 1.63 3.93 3.98
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.73 4.20 4.20
Betfred (UK) UK-only 1.67 4.00 4.00
Betsson 1.70 4.15 4.25
Betway UK-only 1.70 4.20 4.00
BoyleSports UK-only 1.62 4.00 3.80
Casumo UK-only 1.65 4.10 4.50
Coolbet 1.72 4.20 4.20
Coral UK-only 1.65 3.90 4.00
GTbets 1.65 4.41 4.33
Grosvenor UK-only 1.63 3.95 4.35
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.65 3.90 4.00
LeoVegas UK-only 1.68 4.10 4.00
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.63 4.00 4.40
Marathonbet 1.67 4.20 4.25
MyBookie.ag 1.71 4.20 4.20
Nordic Bet 1.70 4.15 4.25
PMU (FR) 1.56 3.80 4.20
Paddy Power UK-only 1.70 4.20 4.20
Sky Bet UK-only 1.67 4.33 4.00
Tipico 1.60 4.20 4.30
Unibet (FR) 1.55 3.95 3.95
Unibet (NL) 1.65 4.10 4.50
Unibet (SE) 1.65 4.10 4.50
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.63 3.95 4.35
William Hill 1.70 3.90 4.00
Winamax (DE) 1.66 4.10 3.95
Winamax (FR) 1.60 3.90 3.70

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

Beat the closing line

Which way will the market move before kick-off? Pick and score your closing line value. Free, no money.

Picking needs a free account: an email address, no card.

How the game works →

Team news

Vancouver Whitecaps

  • Doubtful T. Blackmon · injury started 28 of 30 team matches this season
  • Out A. Cubas · injury started 24 of 30 team matches this season
  • Out E. Sabbi · injury started 19 of 30 team matches this season
  • Doubtful R. Modesto · injury started 3 of 30 team matches this season
  • Out K. G. Cabrera Nakamura · injury started 2 of 30 team matches this season
  • Out R. Elloumi · suspended started 2 of 30 team matches this season
  • Out S. Adekugbe · injury started 0 of 30 team matches this season
  • Out B. Halbouni · injury

Seattle Sounders

  • Doubtful P. Rothrock · injury started 19 of 31 team matches this season
  • Doubtful D. Musovski · injury started 13 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out P. Kingston · suspended started 10 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out Y. Gomez Andrade · injury started 5 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out N. Petkovic · injury started 2 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out P. de La Vega · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 86% fair 1.17 best 1.17 · Betano 14% fair 6.95 best 6.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.53 · Bet365 35% fair 2.84 best 2.63 · Coolbet
3.5 42% fair 2.36 best 2.28 · SBO 58% fair 1.73 best 1.73 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
1.5 86% fair 1.17 best 1.17 · Betano 14% fair 6.95 best 6.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.53 · Bet365 35% fair 2.84 best 2.63 · Coolbet
2.75 1.66 fair best 1.57 · BetVictor 2.52 fair best 2.21 · Marathonbet
3 1.83 fair best 1.81 · BetOnline.ag 2.20 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet
3.25 2.10 fair best 2.05 · SBO 1.91 fair best 1.79 · SBO
3.5 42% fair 2.36 best 2.28 · SBO 58% fair 1.73 best 1.73 · 1xBet
3.75 2.74 fair best 2.50 · Marathonbet 1.57 fair best 1.49 · BetVictor
4.5 23% fair 4.35 best 3.90 · BetVictor 77% fair 1.30 best 1.28 · 1xBet
5.5 11% fair 9.06 best 8.00 · Bet365 89% fair 1.12 best 1.11 · Betano

Both teams to score
YesNo
63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · Bet365 37% fair 2.71 best 2.55 · BetVictor

Double chance
1X12X2
78% fair 1.28 best 1.25 · Betano 78% fair 1.28 best 1.22 · William Hill 43% fair 2.30 best 2.25 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
−1.25 2.64 fair best 2.47 · BetVictor 1.61 fair best 1.61 · SBO
−1 2.32 fair best 2.18 · Betano 1.76 fair best 1.78 · SBO
−0.75 1.99 fair best 1.92 · Bet365 2.01 fair best 2.03 · SBO
−0.5 56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · Betano 44% fair 2.26 best 2.20 · Bet365
−0.25 1.59 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor 2.70 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
All lines (10)
Line Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
−2 4.61 fair best 4.30 · Marathonbet 1.28 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
−1.75 3.70 fair best 3.20 · Marathonbet 1.37 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−1.5 34% fair 2.98 best 2.77 · BetVictor 66% fair 1.51 best 1.48 · Bet365
−1.25 2.64 fair best 2.47 · BetVictor 1.61 fair best 1.61 · SBO
−1 2.32 fair best 2.18 · Betano 1.76 fair best 1.78 · SBO
−0.75 1.99 fair best 1.92 · Bet365 2.01 fair best 2.03 · SBO
−0.5 56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · Betano 44% fair 2.26 best 2.20 · Bet365
−0.25 1.59 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor 2.70 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
0 1.38 fair best 1.30 · BetVictor 3.63 fair best 3.55 · Bet365
+0.25 1.31 fair best 1.23 · Bet365 4.18 fair best 4.10 · Bet365

Goals by team

Vancouver Whitecaps goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 62% fair 1.62 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook 38% fair 2.62 best 2.43 · Marathonbet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 62% fair 1.62 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook 38% fair 2.62 best 2.43 · Marathonbet
2.5 33% fair 3.08 best 2.75 · BetVictor 67% fair 1.48 best 1.45 · Betano

Seattle Sounders goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 34% fair 2.92 best 3.00 · Bet365 66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 72% fair 1.39 best 1.40 · Bet365 28% fair 3.56 best 3.25 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 34% fair 2.92 best 3.00 · Bet365 66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1X2
44% fair 2.28 best 2.22 · Betano 36% fair 2.76 best 2.50 · William Hill 20% fair 5.03 best 4.75 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 1.93 fair best 1.91 · SBO 2.08 fair best 1.93 · SBO
1.5 42% fair 2.35 best 2.27 · Betano 58% fair 1.74 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.36 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor 3.80 fair best 2.94 · BetVictor
1 1.51 fair best 1.53 · Betano 2.96 fair best 2.67 · Marathonbet
1.25 1.93 fair best 1.91 · SBO 2.08 fair best 1.93 · SBO
1.5 42% fair 2.35 best 2.27 · Betano 58% fair 1.74 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
1.75 2.97 fair best 2.47 · BetVictor 1.51 fair best 1.46 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 56% fair 1.77 best 1.61 · Marathonbet 44% fair 2.29 best 2.42 · Betano
10 1.99 fair — 2.01 fair —
10.5 44% fair 2.26 best 2.03 · Marathonbet 56% fair 1.79 best 1.87 · Betano
All lines (6)
Line OverUnder
9 1.54 fair — 2.84 fair —
9.5 56% fair 1.77 best 1.61 · Marathonbet 44% fair 2.29 best 2.42 · Betano
10 1.99 fair — 2.01 fair —
10.5 44% fair 2.26 best 2.03 · Marathonbet 56% fair 1.79 best 1.87 · Betano
11 2.65 fair — 1.61 fair —
11.5 36% fair 2.75 best 2.63 · Marathonbet 64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
−3.5 38% fair 2.64 — 62% fair 1.61 —
−3 2.36 fair best 2.08 · Marathonbet 1.74 fair best 1.60 · Marathonbet
−2.5 48% fair 2.08 best 2.02 · Betano 52% fair 1.93 best 1.80 · Marathonbet
−2 1.84 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 2.19 fair best 2.01 · Marathonbet
−1.5 60% fair 1.67 best 1.67 · Betano 40% fair 2.50 best 2.19 · Marathonbet

Cards (bookings)
Line OverUnder
3.5 56% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · Bet365 44% fair 2.30 best 2.15 · Betano
4 2.19 fair — 1.84 fair —
4.5 36% fair 2.76 best 2.30 · Betano 64% fair 1.57 best 1.57 · Betano
All lines (6)
Line OverUnder
2.5 75% fair 1.34 — 25% fair 3.95 —
3 1.44 fair — 3.27 fair —
3.5 56% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · Bet365 44% fair 2.30 best 2.15 · Betano
4 2.19 fair — 1.84 fair —
4.5 36% fair 2.76 best 2.30 · Betano 64% fair 1.57 best 1.57 · Betano
5 4.07 fair — 1.33 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 2–19.7%fair 10.32
  2. 1–19.7%fair 10.34
  3. 2–07.8%fair 12.82
  4. 1–07.0%fair 14.24
  5. 3–16.8%fair 14.78
  6. 2–26.0%fair 16.62

Total goals

  • 04%
  • 111%
  • 220%
  • 322%
  • 4+43%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Vancouver Whitecaps at home, Seattle Sounders away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesVancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
Goals scored per game 1.80 (2.40) 1.70 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game 1.20 (1.20) 1.10 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals 70% (80%) 50% (50%)
Both teams scored 60% (60%) 60% (60%)
Clean sheets 30% (30%) 20% (10%)
Failed to score 20% (10%) 20% (30%)
xG for / against per game 1.75 / 1.25 1.55 / 1.37
Corners for / against per game 6.40 / 4.50 6.60 / 5.10
Cards per game 1.90 1.50

Over 2.5 goals: Vancouver Whitecaps in 70% and Seattle Sounders in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 65% for this match.

Both teams scored in 60% of Vancouver Whitecaps's and 60% of Seattle Sounders's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 63% here.

From 10 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps and 10 for Seattle Sounders. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Vancouver Whitecaps averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Seattle Sounders averaged 1.2 and 1.0 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Vancouver Whitecaps
W L W D D
avg 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)
Seattle Sounders
L D D L W
avg 1.2 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
17 Aug 2026 Seattle Sounders 0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
28 Sep 2025 Seattle Sounders 2–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
09 Jun 2025 Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Seattle Sounders

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.57
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 748047a2795f9298

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.