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Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Portland Timbers the most likely outcome at 55% — fair odds of 1.82. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Portland Timbers: WWDLD; Houston Dynamo: WDDDD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Gap now +0.1%, under our 0.5% minimum · Flag recorded 29 Oct: 1 · Portland Timbers at +5.7%

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +5.7% @ 2.12 ·
Edge right now +0.1%

We flagged +5.7% on 1 on 29 Oct. The gap is now +0.1%, under our 0.5% minimum, so we no longer call it value. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Portland Timbers anyway? The best price we see is 1.82 at 1xBet, +0.1% against the fair odds of 1.82. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 76%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now55%24%21%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded50%24%26%
Our model37%29%34%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.32
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.94 / 3.88 / 3.60

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.31
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.82 / 4.22 / 4.40
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.824.224.71
Pinnacle sharp 1.78 3.99 4.43
1xBet 1.82 ★ 4.08 4.21
888sport 1.75 3.70 4.00
BetAnything 1.77 4.22 ★ 4.30
BetOnline.ag 1.77 4.22 ★ 4.30
Betsson 1.72 3.85 4.40 ★
LeoVegas (SE) 1.82 ★ 4.10 4.20
Nordic Bet 1.72 3.85 4.40 ★
Show all 40 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.78 4.30 4.50
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.78 4.30 4.50
Matchbook exchange 1.78 4.30 4.50
Smarkets exchange 1.77 4.30 4.50
BetVictor 1.73 4.00 4.20
Betano (UK) UK-only 1.73 4.00 4.20
Betclic (FR) 1.68 3.75 3.85
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.70 4.10 4.33
Betfred (UK) UK-only 1.67 3.75 4.00
Betway UK-only 1.75 3.80 4.20
BoyleSports UK-only 1.70 3.80 3.60
Casumo UK-only 1.76 3.95 3.95
Coolbet 1.78 4.00 4.00
Coral UK-only 1.73 3.60 3.80
GTbets 1.81 4.04 4.07
Grosvenor UK-only 1.74 3.80 3.85
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.73 3.60 3.80
LeoVegas UK-only 1.73 3.90 3.95
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.75 3.85 3.90
Marathonbet 1.75 3.92 4.05
MyBookie.ag 1.78 3.95 4.10
PMU (FR) 1.67 3.70 3.70
Paddy Power UK-only 1.70 4.00 4.33
Sky Bet UK-only 1.67 4.20 4.00
Tipico 1.62 4.00 4.30
Unibet (FR) 1.60 3.75 3.85
Unibet (NL) 1.76 3.95 3.95
Unibet (SE) 1.76 3.95 3.95
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.74 3.80 3.85
William Hill 1.75 3.70 3.90
Winamax (DE) 1.72 3.95 3.85
Winamax (FR) 1.66 3.70 3.60

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Portland Timbers

  • Out K. Miller · suspended started 22 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out B. Bye · injury started 19 of 31 team matches this season
  • Doubtful Antony · injury started 16 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out A. Bonetig · injury started 7 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out J. Mosquera · injury started 1 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out T. Muse · other reason
  • Out Z. McGraw · injury

Houston Dynamo

  • Doubtful Guilherme · injury started 29 of 31 team matches this season
  • Doubtful Felipe Andrade · injury started 20 of 31 team matches this season
  • Doubtful H. Herrera · injury started 19 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out M. Saracchi · injury started 1 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out J. Maurer · injury started 0 of 31 team matches this season

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 82% fair 1.21 best 1.21 · Betano 18% fair 5.66 best 5.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 59% fair 1.69 best 1.65 · Betano 41% fair 2.45 best 2.38 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5 37% fair 2.72 best 2.57 · Betano 63% fair 1.58 best 1.56 · Marathonbet
All lines (7)
Line OverUnder
1.5 82% fair 1.21 best 1.21 · Betano 18% fair 5.66 best 5.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 59% fair 1.69 best 1.65 · Betano 41% fair 2.45 best 2.38 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75 1.85 fair best 1.74 · SBO 2.17 fair best 2.11 · SBO
3 2.10 fair best 2.02 · Betano 1.91 fair best 1.84 · SBO
3.25 2.41 fair best 2.19 · SBO 1.71 fair best 1.68 · SBO
3.5 37% fair 2.72 best 2.57 · Betano 63% fair 1.58 best 1.56 · Marathonbet
4.5 20% fair 5.09 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 80% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Betano

Both teams to score
YesNo
60% fair 1.66 best 1.60 · Betano 40% fair 2.52 best 2.40 · William Hill

Double chance
1X12X2
79% fair 1.27 best 1.25 · Betano 76% fair 1.31 best 1.25 · William Hill 45% fair 2.22 best 2.09 · SBO

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Portland TimbersHouston Dynamo
−1.25 2.89 fair best 2.60 · Bet365 1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−1 2.49 fair best 2.32 · Betano 1.67 fair best 1.65 · Betano
−0.75 2.06 fair best 2.00 · SBO 1.94 fair best 1.86 · SBO
−0.5 55% fair 1.83 best 1.78 · Betano 45% fair 2.20 best 2.12 · SBO
−0.25 1.60 fair best 1.58 · SBO 2.66 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
All lines (10)
Line Portland TimbersHouston Dynamo
−1.75 4.15 fair best 3.45 · Bet365 1.32 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−1.5 30% fair 3.29 best 3.00 · Betano 70% fair 1.44 best 1.42 · Betano
−1.25 2.89 fair best 2.60 · Bet365 1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−1 2.49 fair best 2.32 · Betano 1.67 fair best 1.65 · Betano
−0.75 2.06 fair best 2.00 · SBO 1.94 fair best 1.86 · SBO
−0.5 55% fair 1.83 best 1.78 · Betano 45% fair 2.20 best 2.12 · SBO
−0.25 1.60 fair best 1.58 · SBO 2.66 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
0 1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365 3.62 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+0.25 1.31 fair best 1.27 · Bet365 4.26 fair best 3.55 · Bet365
+0.5 78% fair 1.28 best 1.37 · Betano 22% fair 4.60 best 4.00 · Bet365

Goals by team

Portland Timbers goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Betano 43% fair 2.34 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Betano 43% fair 2.34 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 29% fair 3.47 best 3.00 · Bet365 71% fair 1.40 best 1.39 · Marathonbet

Houston Dynamo goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 31% fair 3.23 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook 69% fair 1.45 best 1.47 · Marathonbet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.42 best 1.40 · Betfair Sportsbook 30% fair 3.39 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5 31% fair 3.23 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook 69% fair 1.45 best 1.47 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1X2
42% fair 2.36 best 2.30 · Betano 38% fair 2.64 best 2.50 · William Hill 20% fair 5.08 best 4.35 · Betano

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.10 fair best 1.98 · SBO 1.91 fair best 1.86 · SBO
1.5 38% fair 2.60 best 2.42 · Betano 62% fair 1.62 best 1.63 · Marathonbet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.42 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor 3.40 fair best 2.78 · BetVictor
1 1.62 fair best 1.62 · Betano 2.60 fair best 2.45 · Marathonbet
1.25 2.10 fair best 1.98 · SBO 1.91 fair best 1.86 · SBO
1.5 38% fair 2.60 best 2.42 · Betano 62% fair 1.62 best 1.63 · Marathonbet
1.75 3.35 fair best 2.61 · BetVictor 1.43 fair best 1.41 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.80 · Betfair Sportsbook 46% fair 2.18 best 2.02 · Betano
10 2.09 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 1.92 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
10.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.25 · Betano 58% fair 1.72 best 1.60 · Betano
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.62 fair — 2.61 fair —
9.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.80 · Betfair Sportsbook 46% fair 2.18 best 2.02 · Betano
10 2.09 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 1.92 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
10.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.25 · Betano 58% fair 1.72 best 1.60 · Betano
11 2.88 fair — 1.53 fair —

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line Portland TimbersHouston Dynamo
−3 2.71 fair — 1.58 fair —
−2.5 44% fair 2.27 best 2.05 · Betano 56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · Marathonbet
−2 2.04 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 1.96 fair best 1.92 · Marathonbet
−1.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.67 · Betano 46% fair 2.17 best 2.14 · Marathonbet
−1 1.67 fair best 1.48 · Marathonbet 2.50 fair best 2.40 · Marathonbet
All lines (6)
Line Portland TimbersHouston Dynamo
−3 2.71 fair — 1.58 fair —
−2.5 44% fair 2.27 best 2.05 · Betano 56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · Marathonbet
−2 2.04 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 1.96 fair best 1.92 · Marathonbet
−1.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.67 · Betano 46% fair 2.17 best 2.14 · Marathonbet
−1 1.67 fair best 1.48 · Marathonbet 2.50 fair best 2.40 · Marathonbet
−0.5 62% fair 1.61 — 38% fair 2.65 —

Cards (bookings)
Line OverUnder
3.5 63% fair 1.58 best 1.47 · Betano 37% fair 2.73 best 2.57 · Betano
4 1.87 fair — 2.15 fair —
4.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.20 · Bet365 58% fair 1.72 best 1.82 · Betano
All lines (6)
Line OverUnder
3 1.30 fair — 4.31 fair —
3.5 63% fair 1.58 best 1.47 · Betano 37% fair 2.73 best 2.57 · Betano
4 1.87 fair — 2.15 fair —
4.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.20 · Bet365 58% fair 1.72 best 1.82 · Betano
5 3.16 fair — 1.46 fair —
5.5 30% fair 3.38 best 2.67 · Betano 70% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–111.0%fair 9.05
  2. 2–19.9%fair 10.14
  3. 2–08.7%fair 11.53
  4. 1–08.1%fair 12.31
  5. 3–16.4%fair 15.74
  6. 1–25.8%fair 17.24

Total goals

  • 05%
  • 113%
  • 223%
  • 322%
  • 4+37%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Portland Timbers at home, Houston Dynamo away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesPortland TimbersHouston Dynamo
Goals scored per game 1.80 (2.00) 1.20 (1.30)
Goals conceded per game 2.10 (1.60) 1.30 (0.90)
Over 2.5 goals 70% (80%) 50% (30%)
Both teams scored 70% (80%) 50% (40%)
Clean sheets 10% (10%) 30% (50%)
Failed to score 30% (20%) 40% (20%)
xG for / against per game 1.59 / 1.59 1.02 / 1.78
Corners for / against per game 5.20 / 4.00 3.90 / 5.70
Cards per game 1.50 2.00

Over 2.5 goals: Portland Timbers in 70% and Houston Dynamo in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 59% for this match.

Both teams scored in 70% of Portland Timbers's and 50% of Houston Dynamo's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 60% here.

From 10 matches for Portland Timbers and 10 for Houston Dynamo. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Portland Timbers averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Houston Dynamo averaged 1.6 and 1.4 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Portland Timbers has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Portland Timbers here.
Houston Dynamo is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Houston Dynamo here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Portland Timbers
W W D L D
avg 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)
Houston Dynamo
W D D D D
avg 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
15 Mar 2026 Houston Dynamo 3–2 Portland Timbers
21 Sep 2025 Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland Timbers
30 Mar 2025 Portland Timbers 3–1 Houston Dynamo

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected ·
1 Portland Timbers · soft 2.12 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 2.01 · edge +5.7%
Opening sharp
1.94

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Portland Timbers
Odds when flagged 2.12
Fair odds 2.01
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 84bcb3f494cb60fe

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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