After the whistle
Benfica 1–0 Alverca half-time 0–0
Goals and cards
- 15' Yaya Bojang · yellow card · Alverca
- 25' Yaya Bojang · disallowed by VAR · Alverca
- 51' 1–0 Vangelis Pavlidis (pen.) · Benfica
- 58' Francisco Chiquinho · yellow card · Alverca
- 63' Ian Luccas · yellow card · Alverca
- 65' Clément Lenglet · yellow card · Benfica
Match stats
| Match stats | Benfica | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 65 | 35 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.68 | 0.62 |
| Shots | 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 4 |
| Corners | 8 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 15 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 3 |
Provisional stats from the final whistle; the final numbers replace them within a day.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Benfica 4-2-3-1
- 24 Samuel Soares GK
- 6 A. Bah DF
- 44 Tomás Araújo DF
- 2 C. Lenglet DF
- 26 S. Dahl DF
- 8 F. Aursnes MF
- 36 João Palhinha MF
- 11 D. Lukebakio MF
- 25 G. Prestianni MF
- 21 A. Schjelderup MF
- 14 V. Pavlidis FW
Bench: H. Sudakov, A. Trubin, Manu, J. Kamiński, Tiago Freitas, S. El Karouani, C. Echeverri, J. Durán, A. Circati, Daniel Banjaqui, A. Cabral, Rafa
Coach: Marco Silva
Regular starters not in the XI
- Rafa — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Alverca 3-4-3
- 31 Matheus Mendes GK
- 4 Y. Bojang DF
- 21 Sergi Gómez DF
- 12 I. James DF
- 2 Zoubdi MF
- 25 Ian Luccas MF
- 6 D. Gui MF
- 55 Francisco Chissumba MF
- 10 Chiquinho FW
- 19 D. Camara FW
- 22 Figueiredo FW
Bench: Z. Kassary, Zé Rafael, J. Martínez, Matheus França, Vasco Moreira, C. Nuozzi, André Paulo, Vivaldo Semedo, Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques, Toni Tamarit, E. Jemide, S. Merheg
Coach: Sérgio Ferreira
Regular starters not in the XI
- S. Baseya — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Rayan — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 86% | 9% | 5% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 85% | 11% | 5% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Benfica averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Alverca averaged 1.6 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- 100% sure football predictions? How often favourites really win
- Accumulator tips today, with the real chance it wins
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is WinDrawWin accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
