Brazil Serie B Mon, 02 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UTC

Goias vs CRB

Fair price as of 22:24 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 23:05 UTC
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Most likely: Goias 40%
Over 2.5 goals: 54%
Most likely score 1–1 (12.7%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Goias the most likely outcome at 40% — fair odds of 2.47. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Goias: WDWWL; CRB: WLDWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here: no bookmaker's odds beat the fair price, so there is no price worth taking.

Betting on Goias anyway? The best price we see is 2.43 at Casumo, -1.7% against the fair odds of 2.47. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 73%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	40%	27%	33%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	38%	27%	35%
Our model	43%	28%	29%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.37

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.51 / 3.45 / 2.73

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 30 minutes ago

Fair odds now 1.37

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.43 / 3.50 / 2.95

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 33 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.47	3.71	3.07
Pinnacle sharp	2.27	3.65	3.11
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	2.15	3.50 ★	3.00 ★
Betway UK-only	2.20	3.50 ★	3.00 ★
Casumo UK-only	2.43 ★	3.45	2.75
Coolbet	2.30	3.50 ★	2.90
Tipico	1.97	3.50 ★	3.00 ★
Unibet (NL)	2.43 ★	3.45	2.75
Unibet (SE)	2.43 ★	3.45	2.75
Unibet (UK) UK-only	2.25	3.40	3.00 ★

Show all 33 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.30	3.70	3.20
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.30	3.70	3.20
Matchbook exchange	2.30	3.70	3.20
Smarkets exchange	2.28	3.65	3.15
1xBet	2.28	3.38	2.90
888sport	2.20	3.30	2.90
BetOnline.ag	2.24	3.45	2.98
BetVictor	2.15	3.40	2.88
Betano (UK) UK-only	2.15	3.40	2.88
Betfred (UK) UK-only	2.20	3.30	2.75
Betsson	2.22	3.30	2.95
BoyleSports UK-only	2.10	3.40	2.70
Codere (IT)	2.21	3.35	2.95
Coral UK-only	2.15	3.30	2.87
Grosvenor UK-only	2.33	3.30	2.60
Ladbrokes UK-only	2.15	3.30	2.87
LeoVegas UK-only	2.20	3.40	2.95
LeoVegas (SE)	2.32	3.25	2.60
LiveScore Bet UK-only	2.28	3.20	2.55
Marathonbet	2.26	3.38	2.88
Nordic Bet	2.22	3.30	2.95
Paddy Power UK-only	2.10	3.40	2.90
Virgin Bet UK-only	2.33	3.30	2.60
William Hill	2.20	3.30	2.90

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 22:34 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · Coolbet	21% fair 4.77 best 4.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	54% fair 1.85 best 1.76 · Unibet (NL)	46% fair 2.17 best 2.14 · SBO
3.5	30% fair 3.29 best 2.88 · BetVictor	70% fair 1.44 best 1.42 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · Coolbet	21% fair 4.77 best 4.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.25	1.63 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor	2.60 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet
2.5	54% fair 1.85 best 1.76 · Unibet (NL)	46% fair 2.17 best 2.14 · SBO
2.75	2.10 fair best 1.98 · SBO	1.91 fair best 1.86 · SBO
3	2.52 fair best 2.25 · Coolbet	1.66 fair best 1.65 · Betano
3.25	2.90 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
3.5	30% fair 3.29 best 2.88 · BetVictor	70% fair 1.44 best 1.42 · Betano
4.5	14% fair 6.96 best 5.50 · Bet365	86% fair 1.17 best 1.17 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
67% fair 1.48 best 1.44 · Betano	73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · Bet365	60% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Goias	CRB
−0.75	3.13 fair best 2.75 · Bet365	1.47 fair best 1.42 · Bet365
−0.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.35 · Bet365	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Betano
−0.25	2.19 fair best 2.13 · SBO	1.84 fair best 1.78 · Bet365
0	1.83 fair best 1.73 · 1xBet	2.20 fair best 2.15 · Bet365
+0.25	1.61 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet	2.64 fair best 2.50 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Goias	CRB
−1.25	5.00 fair best 4.00 · Bet365	1.25 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
−1	4.41 fair best 3.55 · Bet365	1.29 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
−0.75	3.13 fair best 2.75 · Bet365	1.47 fair best 1.42 · Bet365
−0.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.35 · Bet365	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Betano
−0.25	2.19 fair best 2.13 · SBO	1.84 fair best 1.78 · Bet365
0	1.83 fair best 1.73 · 1xBet	2.20 fair best 2.15 · Bet365
+0.25	1.61 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet	2.64 fair best 2.50 · Bet365
+0.5	68% fair 1.48 best 1.45 · Betano	32% fair 3.09 best 3.00 · Bet365
+0.75	1.34 fair best 1.29 · 1xBet	3.96 fair best 3.55 · Bet365
+1	1.21 fair best 1.16 · Bet365	5.76 fair best 5.25 · Bet365

Goals by team

Goias goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	43% fair 2.32 best 2.10 · BetVictor	57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.25 best 1.24 · Betano	20% fair 5.00 best 4.10 · 1xBet
1.5	43% fair 2.32 best 2.10 · BetVictor	57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · Bet365

CRB goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	38% fair 2.64 best 2.38 · Bet365	62% fair 1.61 best 1.60 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	77% fair 1.29 best 1.28 · Bet365	23% fair 4.40 best 3.60 · BetVictor
1.5	38% fair 2.64 best 2.38 · Bet365	62% fair 1.61 best 1.60 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
32% fair 3.16 best 2.90 · BetVictor	41% fair 2.44 best 2.30 · Bet365	27% fair 3.64 best 3.42 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.38 · Betano	27% fair 3.72 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	1.78 fair best 1.75 · Betano	2.28 fair best 2.14 · SBO
1.5	35% fair 2.88 best 2.60 · Betano	65% fair 1.53 best 1.51 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.38 · Betano	27% fair 3.72 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.50 fair best 1.43 · BetVictor	3.00 fair best 2.68 · 1xBet
1	1.78 fair best 1.75 · Betano	2.28 fair best 2.14 · SBO
1.25	2.33 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet	1.75 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet
1.5	35% fair 2.88 best 2.60 · Betano	65% fair 1.53 best 1.51 · 1xBet
1.75	3.80 fair best 2.91 · 1xBet	1.36 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
10.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.77 · 1xBet	46% fair 2.20 best 2.30 · Betano
11	2.05 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
11.5	43% fair 2.31 best 2.19 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.76 best 1.82 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
10	1.62 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet	2.60 fair best 2.22 · 1xBet
10.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.77 · 1xBet	46% fair 2.20 best 2.30 · Betano
11	2.05 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
11.5	43% fair 2.31 best 2.19 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.76 best 1.82 · Betano
12	2.76 fair best 2.58 · 1xBet	1.57 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Goias	CRB
−2	2.63 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet	1.61 fair best 1.41 · 1xBet
−1.5	45% fair 2.24 best 2.08 · 1xBet	55% fair 1.81 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
−1	2.03 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet	1.97 fair best 1.82 · Marathonbet
−0.5	54% fair 1.85 best 1.98 · Bet365	46% fair 2.17 best 1.82 · Bet365
0	1.69 fair best 1.58 · Marathonbet	2.46 fair best 2.20 · Marathonbet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–112.7%fair 7.85
2–18.8%fair 11.30
1–27.8%fair 12.79
1–07.8%fair 12.80
0–06.9%fair 14.59
0–16.8%fair 14.74

Total goals

07%
115%
225%
322%
4+32%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Goias at home, CRB away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Goias	CRB
Goals scored per game	1.10 (1.00)	1.60 (0.90)
Goals conceded per game	1.00 (0.70)	1.40 (1.60)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (30%)	80% (50%)
Both teams scored	30% (40%)	60% (30%)
Clean sheets	30% (30%)	10% (40%)
Failed to score	50% (40%)	30% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.42 / 1.00	1.66 / 1.00
Corners for / against per game	6.20 / 5.40	7.50 / 4.60
Cards per game	2.30	1.40

Over 2.5 goals: Goias in 40% and CRB in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 54% for this match.

From 10 matches for Goias and 10 for CRB. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Goias averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; CRB averaged 1.6 and 1.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Goias

W D W W L

avg 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

CRB

W L D W L

avg 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

12 Jul 2026 CRB 2–2 Goias

08 Oct 2025 Goias 1–2 CRB

14 Jun 2025 CRB 2–0 Goias

09 Nov 2024 CRB 0–1 Goias

26 Jul 2024 Goias 1–1 CRB

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Mon, 26 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.31

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint e49dd7a2c4838db2

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit