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QPR vs Burnley

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes QPR the most likely outcome at 48% — fair odds of 2.06. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — QPR: LWLWD; Burnley: DLLDW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 31 Oct: 1 · QPR at +1.5%

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +1.5% @ 2.00 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +1.5% on 1 on 31 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on QPR anyway? The best price we see is 2.06 at Codere (IT), -0.1% against the fair odds of 2.06. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 75%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now48%25%27%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded51%24%25%
Our model50%26%25%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.32
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.91 / 3.87 / 3.75

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.33
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.06 / 3.80 / 3.75
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.064.053.73
Pinnacle sharp 2.02 3.81 3.57
1xBet 1.99 3.64 3.42
Betway UK-only 1.95 3.80 ★ 3.40
Codere (IT) 2.06 ★ 3.65 3.45
Coral UK-only 2.00 3.80 ★ 3.40
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.95 3.80 ★ 3.40
LeoVegas (SE) 2.00 3.80 ★ 3.75 ★
Sky Bet UK-only 1.95 3.80 ★ 3.50
Show all 40 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 2.04 3.90 3.80
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 2.04 3.90 3.80
Matchbook exchange 2.04 3.85 3.80
Smarkets exchange 2.06 3.90 3.80
888sport 2.00 3.50 3.40
BetOnline.ag 2.00 3.79 3.50
BetVictor 1.95 3.70 3.40
Betano (UK) UK-only 1.95 3.70 3.40
Betclic (FR) 1.88 3.43 3.15
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.95 3.70 3.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only 1.95 3.60 3.25
Betsson 1.98 3.65 3.55
BoyleSports UK-only 1.91 3.60 3.25
Casumo UK-only 1.93 3.65 3.60
Coolbet 2.00 3.75 3.40
GTbets 1.98 3.61 3.50
Grosvenor UK-only 1.92 3.60 3.55
LeoVegas UK-only 2.05 3.65 3.35
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.92 3.55 3.50
Marathonbet 1.97 3.64 3.42
Nordic Bet 1.99 3.65 3.57
PMU (FR) 1.85 3.40 3.35
Paddy Power UK-only 1.95 3.70 3.50
Tipico 1.85 3.70 3.50
Unibet (FR) 1.76 3.25 3.00
Unibet (NL) 1.89 3.50 3.45
Unibet (SE) 1.93 3.65 3.60
Unibet (UK) UK-only 2.05 3.75 3.40
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.94 3.60 3.55
William Hill 2.00 3.50 3.40
Winamax (DE) 1.96 3.65 3.20
Winamax (FR) 1.92 3.60 3.15

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

QPR

  • Out A. S. Mbengue · injury started 7 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out N. Madsen · injury started 7 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out R. Burrell · inactive started 6 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out T. Lamptey · inactive started 2 of 13 team matches this season

Burnley

  • Out J. Bruun Larsen · injury started 8 of 12 team matches this season
  • Out Z. Amdouni · injury started 5 of 12 team matches this season
  • Out H. Mejbri · injury started 4 of 12 team matches this season
  • Out B. Humphreys · injury started 2 of 12 team matches this season
  • Doubtful A. Broja · injury started 2 of 12 team matches this season
  • Out B. Amos · inactive
  • Out J. Beyer · injury
  • Out M. Obafemi · inactive
  • Out M. Tresor Ndayishimiye · inactive
  • Out S. Sambo · inactive

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 81% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · BetVictor 19% fair 5.25 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · Bet365 43% fair 2.32 best 2.20 · Betano
3.5 34% fair 2.98 best 2.70 · Betano 66% fair 1.50 best 1.50 · Bet365
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 81% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · BetVictor 19% fair 5.25 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.25 1.55 fair best 1.49 · BetVictor 2.81 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet
2.5 57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · Bet365 43% fair 2.32 best 2.20 · Betano
2.75 1.95 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet 2.05 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
3 2.29 fair best 2.15 · Betano 1.78 fair best 1.75 · Betano
3.25 2.64 fair best 2.31 · BetVictor 1.61 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet
3.5 34% fair 2.98 best 2.70 · Betano 66% fair 1.50 best 1.50 · Bet365
4.5 17% fair 5.96 best 5.00 · Bet365 83% fair 1.20 best 1.20 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
73% fair 1.37 best 1.31 · Betano 75% fair 1.33 best 1.30 · William Hill 52% fair 1.94 best 1.82 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line QPRBurnley
−1 3.10 fair best 2.92 · Betano 1.48 fair best 1.44 · Betano
−0.75 2.43 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.70 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.5 48% fair 2.09 best 2.02 · Bet365 52% fair 1.92 best 1.83 · Betano
−0.25 1.82 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet 2.22 fair best 2.10 · Bet365
0 1.54 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 2.84 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
All lines (9)
Line QPRBurnley
−1.5 25% fair 4.05 best 3.60 · BetVictor 75% fair 1.33 best 1.30 · Bet365
−1.25 3.60 fair best 3.20 · BetVictor 1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−1 3.10 fair best 2.92 · Betano 1.48 fair best 1.44 · Betano
−0.75 2.43 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.70 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.5 48% fair 2.09 best 2.02 · Bet365 52% fair 1.92 best 1.83 · Betano
−0.25 1.82 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet 2.22 fair best 2.10 · Bet365
0 1.54 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 2.84 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
+0.25 1.43 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet 3.35 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+0.5 74% fair 1.35 best 1.27 · Bet365 26% fair 3.86 best 3.55 · Bet365

Goals by team

QPR goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 51% fair 1.97 best 1.83 · BetVictor 49% fair 2.03 best 1.93 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 51% fair 1.97 best 1.83 · BetVictor 49% fair 2.03 best 1.93 · 1xBet
2.5 23% fair 4.37 best 3.80 · Betfair Sportsbook 77% fair 1.30 best 1.29 · Betano

Burnley goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 34% fair 2.97 best 2.62 · Bet365 66% fair 1.51 best 1.49 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · Bet365 27% fair 3.74 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 34% fair 2.97 best 2.62 · Bet365 66% fair 1.51 best 1.49 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1X2
37% fair 2.67 best 2.60 · Bet365 40% fair 2.52 best 2.38 · Bet365 23% fair 4.37 best 4.00 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.21 fair best 1.98 · BetVictor 1.83 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
1.5 37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · Bet365 63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.46 fair best 1.42 · BetVictor 3.18 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet
1 1.70 fair best 1.70 · Betano 2.43 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet
1.25 2.21 fair best 1.98 · BetVictor 1.83 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
1.5 37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · Bet365 63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · 1xBet
1.75 3.61 fair best 2.82 · BetVictor 1.38 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 53% fair 1.87 best 1.92 · Bet365 47% fair 2.15 best 1.99 · 1xBet
10 2.11 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 1.90 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
10.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.42 · Betano 58% fair 1.72 best 1.61 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.65 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet 2.54 fair best 2.32 · 1xBet
9.5 53% fair 1.87 best 1.92 · Bet365 47% fair 2.15 best 1.99 · 1xBet
10 2.11 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 1.90 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
10.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.42 · Betano 58% fair 1.72 best 1.61 · 1xBet
11 2.82 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet 1.55 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line QPRBurnley
−2 2.51 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet 1.66 fair best 1.50 · Marathonbet
−1.5 46% fair 2.18 best 2.02 · Marathonbet 54% fair 1.85 best 1.67 · Marathonbet
−1 1.95 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 2.05 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
−0.5 56% fair 1.78 best 1.65 · Betano 44% fair 2.28 best 2.05 · Betano
0 1.62 fair best 1.56 · Marathonbet 2.62 fair best 2.25 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–111.5%fair 8.66
  2. 2–19.5%fair 10.49
  3. 1–08.4%fair 11.88
  4. 2–07.7%fair 12.94
  5. 1–26.8%fair 14.70
  6. 2–25.9%fair 17.01

Total goals

  • 06%
  • 114%
  • 223%
  • 322%
  • 4+34%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: QPR at home, Burnley away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesQPRBurnley
Goals scored per game 1.60 (1.70) 1.30 (1.10)
Goals conceded per game 1.40 (1.10) 1.60 (2.30)
Over 2.5 goals 60% (60%) 60% (70%)
Both teams scored 60% (60%) 80% (70%)
Clean sheets 20% (30%) 20% (20%)
Failed to score 30% (30%) 10% (20%)
xG for / against per game 1.55 / 1.17 1.30 / 1.48
Corners for / against per game 5.60 / 4.40 4.60 / 4.50
Cards per game 2.30 1.90

Over 2.5 goals: QPR in 60% and Burnley in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 57% for this match.

From 10 matches for QPR and 10 for Burnley. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

QPR averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Burnley averaged 1.6 and 1.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

QPR is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on QPR here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

QPR
L W L W D
avg 2.2 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)
Burnley
D L L D W
avg 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
26 Apr 2025 QPR 0–5 Burnley
26 Oct 2024 Burnley 0–0 QPR

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected ·
1 QPR · soft 2.00 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 1.97 · edge +1.5%
Opening sharp
1.91

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.27
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · QPR
Odds when flagged 2.00
Fair odds 1.97
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 426204a924fcd1c5

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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