← All matches › Championship
Championship

Portsmouth vs Swansea

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
  • Line-ups usually from
  • Check my slip

The sharp market makes Swansea the most likely outcome at 36% — fair odds of 2.79. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Portsmouth: DWDWW; Swansea: WLLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 31 Oct: 1 · Portsmouth at +6.4%

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +6.4% @ 2.70 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +6.4% on 1 on 31 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Swansea anyway? The best price we see is 2.67 at BetOnline.ag, -4.3% against the fair odds of 2.79. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 71%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now35%29%36%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded39%29%32%
Our model37%29%33%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.40
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.44 / 3.32 / 2.98

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.41
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.76 / 3.44 / 2.67
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.843.452.79
Pinnacle sharp 2.75 3.31 2.70
1xBet 2.66 3.18 2.60
888sport 2.62 3.10 2.62
BetOnline.ag 2.67 3.33 2.67 ★
Coolbet 2.60 3.40 ★ 2.60
LeoVegas (SE) 2.75 3.40 ★ 2.65
Nordic Bet 2.76 ★ 3.20 2.61
Unibet (UK) UK-only 2.65 3.40 ★ 2.65
Show all 40 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 2.88 3.40 2.76
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 2.88 3.40 2.76
Matchbook exchange 2.88 3.40 2.76
Smarkets exchange 2.88 3.40 2.76
BetVictor 2.62 3.25 2.60
Betano (UK) UK-only 2.62 3.25 2.60
Betclic (FR) 2.40 3.13 2.47
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 2.70 3.25 2.63
Betfred (UK) UK-only 2.50 3.25 2.60
Betsson 2.75 3.20 2.60
Betway UK-only 2.62 3.25 2.62
BoyleSports UK-only 2.60 3.25 2.60
Casumo UK-only 2.63 3.25 2.55
Codere (IT) 2.65 3.30 2.65
Coral UK-only 2.70 3.30 2.62
GTbets 2.58 3.26 2.64
Grosvenor UK-only 2.60 3.20 2.55
Ladbrokes UK-only 2.70 3.25 2.60
LeoVegas UK-only 2.65 3.35 2.65
LiveScore Bet UK-only 2.60 3.20 2.50
Marathonbet 2.66 3.18 2.60
PMU (FR) 2.50 3.05 2.45
Paddy Power UK-only 2.70 3.20 2.62
Sky Bet UK-only 2.70 3.30 2.63
Tipico 2.70 3.20 2.40
Unibet (FR) 2.20 2.95 2.35
Unibet (NL) 2.60 3.15 2.50
Unibet (SE) 2.63 3.25 2.55
Virgin Bet UK-only 2.63 3.20 2.55
William Hill 2.62 3.10 2.62
Winamax (DE) 2.50 3.30 2.50
Winamax (FR) 2.40 3.15 2.40

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

Beat the closing line

Which way will the market move before kick-off? Pick and score your closing line value. Free, no money.

Picking needs a free account: an email address, no card.

How the game works →

Team news

Portsmouth

  • Out B. Arthur · injury started 5 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out C. Bishop · injury started 5 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out L. Brooke-Smith · injury started 1 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out K. Anderson · other reason started 0 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out C. Ogilvie · injury
  • Out J. Swift · injury

Swansea

  • Out M. K. Yeo · injury started 9 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out Ronald · injury started 1 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out C. Burgess · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 75% fair 1.34 best 1.32 · BetVictor 25% fair 3.93 best 3.50 · Bet365
2.5 48% fair 2.09 best 2.00 · Bet365 52% fair 1.92 best 1.87 · Betano
3.5 26% fair 3.90 best 3.50 · Bet365 74% fair 1.34 best 1.33 · Betano
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 75% fair 1.34 best 1.32 · BetVictor 25% fair 3.93 best 3.50 · Bet365
2 1.53 fair best 1.50 · Betano 2.88 fair best 2.67 · Betano
2.25 1.81 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet 2.24 fair best 2.02 · 1xBet
2.5 48% fair 2.09 best 2.00 · Bet365 52% fair 1.92 best 1.87 · Betano
2.75 2.40 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet 1.71 fair best 1.60 · BetVictor
3 3.00 fair best 2.70 · Betano 1.50 fair best 1.50 · Betano
3.5 26% fair 3.90 best 3.50 · Bet365 74% fair 1.34 best 1.33 · Betano
4.5 11% fair 8.88 best 7.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 89% fair 1.13 best 1.13 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · Betano 71% fair 1.41 best 1.33 · William Hill 65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line PortsmouthSwansea
−0.5 35% fair 2.89 best 2.65 · Betano 65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Betano
−0.25 2.45 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.69 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
0 2.03 fair best 1.92 · Bet365 1.97 fair best 1.92 · Bet365
+0.25 1.73 fair best 1.62 · Bet365 2.37 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+0.5 64% fair 1.56 best 1.53 · Betano 36% fair 2.78 best 2.60 · Betano
All lines (9)
Line PortsmouthSwansea
−1 5.34 fair best 4.55 · BetVictor 1.23 fair best 1.20 · Bet365
−0.75 3.68 fair best 3.30 · Bet365 1.37 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−0.5 35% fair 2.89 best 2.65 · Betano 65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Betano
−0.25 2.45 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.69 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
0 2.03 fair best 1.92 · Bet365 1.97 fair best 1.92 · Bet365
+0.25 1.73 fair best 1.62 · Bet365 2.37 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+0.5 64% fair 1.56 best 1.53 · Betano 36% fair 2.78 best 2.60 · Betano
+0.75 1.39 fair best 1.35 · Bet365 3.54 fair best 3.12 · 1xBet
+1 1.24 fair best 1.21 · Bet365 5.14 fair best 4.40 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Portsmouth goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 36% fair 2.79 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook 64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 75% fair 1.34 best 1.32 · Betano 25% fair 3.93 best 3.42 · Marathonbet
1.5 36% fair 2.79 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook 64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · 1xBet

Swansea goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 36% fair 2.74 best 2.45 · BetVictor 64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Betano
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 75% fair 1.33 best 1.31 · Betano 25% fair 4.01 best 3.60 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 36% fair 2.74 best 2.45 · BetVictor 64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1X2
28% fair 3.56 best 3.25 · Bet365 43% fair 2.31 best 2.18 · Betano 29% fair 3.49 best 3.32 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.41 · BetVictor 30% fair 3.34 best 3.05 · Betano
1 1.99 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet 2.01 fair best 2.05 · Betano
1.5 30% fair 3.28 best 3.00 · Bet365 70% fair 1.44 best 1.50 · Betano
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.41 · BetVictor 30% fair 3.34 best 3.05 · Betano
0.75 1.60 fair best 1.55 · BetVictor 2.66 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet
1 1.99 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet 2.01 fair best 2.05 · Betano
1.25 2.63 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet 1.61 fair best 1.54 · BetVictor
1.5 30% fair 3.28 best 3.00 · Bet365 70% fair 1.44 best 1.50 · Betano

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 55% fair 1.81 best 1.82 · Bet365 45% fair 2.23 best 2.12 · 1xBet
10 1.99 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet 2.01 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
10.5 45% fair 2.21 best 2.35 · Betano 55% fair 1.83 best 1.71 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.61 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet 2.65 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet
9.5 55% fair 1.81 best 1.82 · Bet365 45% fair 2.23 best 2.12 · 1xBet
10 1.99 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet 2.01 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
10.5 45% fair 2.21 best 2.35 · Betano 55% fair 1.83 best 1.71 · 1xBet
11 2.58 fair best 2.33 · 1xBet 1.63 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line PortsmouthSwansea
−1.5 41% fair 2.45 best 2.23 · Marathonbet 59% fair 1.69 best 1.55 · Marathonbet
−1 2.23 fair best 2.06 · Marathonbet 1.82 fair best 1.66 · Marathonbet
−0.5 50% fair 2.00 best 1.85 · Bet365 50% fair 2.00 best 1.95 · Bet365
0 1.79 fair best 1.71 · Marathonbet 2.27 fair best 2.02 · 1xBet
+0.5 61% fair 1.65 — 39% fair 2.54 —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–113.9%fair 7.21
  2. 0–08.8%fair 11.39
  3. 0–18.5%fair 11.80
  4. 1–08.4%fair 11.96
  5. 1–28.2%fair 12.21
  6. 2–18.1%fair 12.34

Total goals

  • 09%
  • 117%
  • 226%
  • 322%
  • 4+26%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Portsmouth at home, Swansea away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesPortsmouthSwansea
Goals scored per game 1.10 (1.60) 1.50 (1.60)
Goals conceded per game 0.90 (1.30) 1.20 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals 30% (50%) 60% (70%)
Both teams scored 40% (60%) 40% (60%)
Clean sheets 40% (30%) 40% (30%)
Failed to score 40% (10%) 30% (10%)
xG for / against per game 1.12 / 1.09 1.65 / 1.36
Corners for / against per game 5.40 / 4.80 3.70 / 4.60
Cards per game 1.80 1.30

Over 2.5 goals: Portsmouth in 30% and Swansea in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 48% for this match.

From 10 matches for Portsmouth and 10 for Swansea. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Portsmouth averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Swansea averaged 1.4 and 1.4 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Portsmouth is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Portsmouth here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Portsmouth
D W D W W
avg 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)
Swansea
W L L W W
avg 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
10 Mar 2026 Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea
09 Dec 2025 Swansea 1–0 Portsmouth
01 Jan 2025 Portsmouth 4–0 Swansea
30 Nov 2024 Swansea 2–2 Portsmouth

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected ·
1 Portsmouth · soft 2.70 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 2.54 · edge +6.4%
Opening sharp
2.44

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.34
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Portsmouth
Odds when flagged 2.70
Fair odds 2.54
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 16e7007bbf65fa77

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.