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Championship

Charlton vs Bolton

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The sharp market makes Charlton the most likely outcome at 43% — fair odds of 2.34. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Charlton: LLLDD; Bolton: LLDWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here: no bookmaker's odds beat the fair price, so there is no price worth taking.

Betting on Charlton anyway? The best price we see is 2.35 at LeoVegas, +0.2% against the fair odds of 2.34. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 74%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now43%26%31%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded43%26%30%
Our model31%26%43%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.35
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.22 / 3.62 / 3.12

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.36
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.34 / 3.61 / 3.20
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.343.803.22
Pinnacle sharp 2.28 3.64 3.10
1xBet 2.20 3.48 3.05
888sport 2.30 3.30 2.90
BetOnline.ag 2.26 3.55 3.07
BetVictor 2.20 3.50 3.00
LeoVegas UK-only 2.35 ★ 3.45 2.90
LeoVegas (SE) 2.28 3.60 3.20 ★
Nordic Bet 2.26 3.61 ★ 2.95
Show all 40 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 2.40 3.60 3.20
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 2.40 3.60 3.20
Matchbook exchange 2.40 3.60 3.20
Smarkets exchange 2.40 3.60 3.20
Betano (UK) UK-only 2.20 3.50 3.00
Betclic (FR) 2.13 3.22 2.78
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 2.30 3.50 3.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only 2.20 3.40 2.88
Betsson 2.25 3.60 2.92
Betway UK-only 2.20 3.50 3.00
BoyleSports UK-only 2.15 3.40 2.88
Casumo UK-only 2.20 3.45 3.05
Codere (IT) 2.34 3.40 3.05
Coolbet 2.25 3.60 2.95
Coral UK-only 2.20 3.60 3.00
GTbets 2.26 3.39 3.10
Grosvenor UK-only 2.18 3.40 3.05
Ladbrokes UK-only 2.20 3.60 3.00
LiveScore Bet UK-only 2.20 3.40 3.05
Marathonbet 2.18 3.48 3.04
PMU (FR) 2.10 3.25 2.90
Paddy Power UK-only 2.25 3.40 3.00
Sky Bet UK-only 2.25 3.50 2.90
Tipico 2.10 3.50 3.00
Unibet (FR) 1.98 3.05 2.65
Unibet (NL) 2.16 3.35 3.00
Unibet (SE) 2.20 3.45 3.05
Unibet (UK) UK-only 2.30 3.50 3.00
Virgin Bet UK-only 2.20 3.40 3.05
William Hill 2.30 3.30 2.90
Winamax (DE) 2.20 3.45 2.80
Winamax (FR) 2.10 3.25 2.70

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Charlton

  • Out C. Sichenje · injury
  • Out R. Apter · injury
  • Doubtful M. Godden · injury

Bolton

  • Out E. Erhahon · injury started 9 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out J. McAtee · injury started 5 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out J. Nelson · inactive started 0 of 13 team matches this season
  • Out R. Hardie · injury started 0 of 13 team matches this season

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 80% fair 1.25 best 1.25 · Betano 20% fair 5.04 best 4.33 · Bet365
2.5 55% fair 1.81 best 1.78 · Betano 45% fair 2.24 best 2.10 · Bet365
3.5 32% fair 3.11 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook 68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 80% fair 1.25 best 1.25 · Betano 20% fair 5.04 best 4.33 · Bet365
2.25 1.59 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet 2.70 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet
2.5 55% fair 1.81 best 1.78 · Betano 45% fair 2.24 best 2.10 · Bet365
2.75 2.02 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet 1.98 fair best 1.80 · BetVictor
3 2.38 fair best 2.27 · Betano 1.72 fair best 1.67 · Betano
3.25 2.74 fair best 2.57 · 1xBet 1.57 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor
3.5 32% fair 3.11 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook 68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano
4.5 15% fair 6.51 best 5.50 · BetVictor 85% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · Betano 74% fair 1.36 best 1.30 · William Hill 57% fair 1.74 best 1.63 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line CharltonBolton
−0.75 2.85 fair best 2.60 · Bet365 1.54 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−0.5 42% fair 2.37 best 2.30 · Betano 58% fair 1.73 best 1.65 · Bet365
−0.25 2.04 fair best 1.98 · Bet365 1.96 fair best 1.88 · Bet365
0 1.72 fair best 1.62 · Bet365 2.39 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+0.25 1.54 fair best 1.45 · Bet365 2.85 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
All lines (9)
Line CharltonBolton
−1.25 4.37 fair best 3.80 · BetVictor 1.30 fair best 1.26 · Bet365
−1 3.84 fair best 3.60 · Betano 1.35 fair best 1.31 · Betano
−0.75 2.85 fair best 2.60 · Bet365 1.54 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−0.5 42% fair 2.37 best 2.30 · Betano 58% fair 1.73 best 1.65 · Bet365
−0.25 2.04 fair best 1.98 · Bet365 1.96 fair best 1.88 · Bet365
0 1.72 fair best 1.62 · Bet365 2.39 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+0.25 1.54 fair best 1.45 · Bet365 2.85 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
+0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Betano 30% fair 3.34 best 3.00 · Bet365
+0.75 1.30 fair best 1.26 · Bet365 4.36 fair best 3.70 · Bet365

Goals by team

Charlton goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.05 · Betano 54% fair 1.86 best 1.75 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.05 · Betano 54% fair 1.86 best 1.75 · 1xBet
2.5 19% fair 5.19 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 81% fair 1.24 best 1.21 · Betano

Bolton goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · Bet365 63% fair 1.58 best 1.55 · Betano
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 76% fair 1.32 best 1.30 · Bet365 24% fair 4.11 best 3.42 · Marathonbet
1.5 37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · Bet365 63% fair 1.58 best 1.55 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1X2
33% fair 3.01 best 2.90 · Betano 41% fair 2.47 best 2.30 · William Hill 26% fair 3.81 best 3.70 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.27 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet 1.78 fair best 1.67 · BetVictor
1.5 35% fair 2.83 best 2.62 · Betano 65% fair 1.55 best 1.50 · William Hill
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.48 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor 3.08 fair best 2.61 · 1xBet
1 1.75 fair best 1.78 · Betano 2.34 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
1.25 2.27 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet 1.78 fair best 1.67 · BetVictor
1.5 35% fair 2.83 best 2.62 · Betano 65% fair 1.55 best 1.50 · William Hill
1.75 3.77 fair best 3.06 · 1xBet 1.36 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 56% fair 1.78 best 1.64 · 1xBet 44% fair 2.28 best 2.35 · Betano
10 1.97 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet 2.03 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet
10.5 45% fair 2.22 best 2.03 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.82 best 1.82 · Bet365
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.58 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet 2.72 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet
9.5 56% fair 1.78 best 1.64 · 1xBet 44% fair 2.28 best 2.35 · Betano
10 1.97 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet 2.03 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet
10.5 45% fair 2.22 best 2.03 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.82 best 1.82 · Bet365
11 2.60 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet 1.63 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line CharltonBolton
−1 2.41 fair best 2.11 · 1xBet 1.71 fair best 1.61 · Marathonbet
−0.5 47% fair 2.11 — 53% fair 1.90 —
0 1.90 fair best 1.95 · Bet365 2.11 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
+0.5 57% fair 1.75 best 1.70 · Betano 43% fair 2.34 best 2.00 · Betano
+1 1.59 fair best 1.50 · Marathonbet 2.69 fair best 2.47 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–112.4%fair 8.10
  2. 2–19.1%fair 11.03
  3. 1–07.8%fair 12.77
  4. 1–27.6%fair 13.21
  5. 2–06.9%fair 14.55
  6. 0–16.4%fair 15.64

Total goals

  • 06%
  • 114%
  • 224%
  • 322%
  • 4+33%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Charlton at home, Bolton away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesCharltonBolton
Goals scored per game 0.60 (1.00) 1.60 (1.10)
Goals conceded per game 1.90 (1.20) 2.40 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals 50% (60%) 80% (40%)
Both teams scored 50% (70%) 70% (40%)
Clean sheets 20% (30%) 20% (30%)
Failed to score 50% (20%) 20% (50%)
xG for / against per game 1.03 / 1.59 1.42 / 2.20
Corners for / against per game 4.10 / 6.70 5.10 / 6.00
Cards per game 2.30 1.80

Over 2.5 goals: Charlton in 50% and Bolton in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 55% for this match.

From 10 matches for Charlton and 10 for Bolton. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Charlton averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Bolton averaged 1.4 and 2.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Charlton has lost its last 3 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Charlton here.
Bolton has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Bolton here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Charlton
L L L D D
avg 0.8 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)
Bolton
L L D W L
avg 1.4 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
21 Jan 2025 Bolton 1–2 Charlton
24 Aug 2024 Charlton 2–0 Bolton

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.30
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 057ab8929d3489f7

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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