UEFA Champions League Wed, 04 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

Fair price as of Mon · 23:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 19:35 UTC
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Most likely: Borussia Dortmund 56%
Over 2.5 goals: 64%
Most likely score 1–1 (10.1%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely outcome at 56% — fair odds of 1.78. On Borussia Dortmund, 1xBet offers 1.80 against a fair price of 1.78, a +1.0% gap: too small to call value, so we only monitor it (Micro-edge). Recent form — Borussia Dortmund: DWWWD; Real Betis: WDWLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Micro-edge on 1 · Borussia Dortmund: +1.0% at 1xBet, under 1.5% (monitor only) · Flag recorded 31 Oct: 1 · Borussia Dortmund at +3.3%

Value check Micro-edge

1 Borussia Dortmund @ 1.80

Bookmaker 1xBet

Price observed Mon, 02 Nov · 23:34 UTC

Flag recorded Sat, 31 Oct · 17:00 UTC @ 1.80 (1xBet) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 1.78

1xBet 1.80

Market Gap +1.0%

Edge at detection +3.3% @ 1.80 · 31 Oct

Edge right now +1.0% @ 1.80 · 1 hour ago

The gap has narrowed since detection — the sharp market moved toward the soft price. The number above is the edge that is actually left right now, not the one we flagged.

Market discrepancy: Borussia Dortmund (1) is priced at 1.80 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.78 — a +1.0% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

The market's two most likely results

1/X Home or draw 79%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	56%	22%	21%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	54%	23%	23%
Our model	53%	22%	24%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.29

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.78 / 4.04 / 4.09

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds now 1.27

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.80 / 4.30 / 4.70

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 38 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.78	4.45	4.67
Pinnacle sharp	1.75	4.25	4.45
1xBet	1.80 ★	4.16	4.57
888sport	1.73	3.90	4.20
BetAnything	1.75	4.24	4.43
BetOnline.ag	1.75	4.24	4.43
Coolbet	1.75	4.30 ★	4.55
Unibet (NL)	1.74	4.25	4.70 ★
Unibet (SE)	1.75	4.25	4.70 ★

Show all 38 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.81	4.40	4.50
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.81	4.40	4.50
Matchbook exchange	1.81	4.40	4.50
Smarkets exchange	1.81	4.30	4.50
BetVictor	1.70	4.20	4.40
Betclic (FR)	1.65	4.00	4.10
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.70	4.20	4.33
Betsson	1.72	4.10	4.40
Betway UK-only	1.70	4.00	4.20
BoyleSports UK-only	1.67	4.00	4.20
Casumo UK-only	1.64	3.80	4.10
Codere (IT)	1.75	4.00	4.40
Coral UK-only	1.75	4.20	4.20
GTbets	1.75	4.02	4.34
Grosvenor UK-only	1.70	4.00	4.40
Ladbrokes UK-only	1.75	4.00	4.20
LeoVegas UK-only	1.70	3.95	4.10
LeoVegas (SE)	1.70	4.00	4.40
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.68	3.90	4.30
Marathonbet	1.75	4.05	4.45
Nordic Bet	1.72	4.20	4.45
PMU (FR)	1.62	3.75	4.10
Paddy Power UK-only	1.73	4.00	4.20
Sky Bet UK-only	1.73	4.00	4.20
Unibet (FR)	1.58	3.80	4.10
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.73	4.00	4.25
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.68	3.90	4.30
William Hill	1.73	3.90	4.20
Winamax (DE)	1.66	4.20	4.20
Winamax (FR)	1.64	4.00	4.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of Mon · 20:17 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.75 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.32 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.71 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
2.25	1.41 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor	3.45 fair best 3.10 · 1xBet
2.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.75 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.70 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet	2.44 fair best 2.31 · SBO
3	1.89 fair best 1.83 · SBO	2.13 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
3.25	2.16 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet	1.86 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.32 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.71 · 1xBet
3.75	2.86 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet	1.54 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
4	3.64 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet	1.38 fair best 1.38 · 1xBet
4.25	4.08 fair best 3.46 · 1xBet	1.32 fair best 1.29 · 1xBet

Double chance

1X	12	X2
79% fair 1.27 best 1.24 · 1xBet	78% fair 1.29 best 1.27 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.28 best 2.17 · SBO

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Borussia Dortmund	Real Betis
−1.25	2.72 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet	1.58 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet
−1	2.36 fair best 2.24 · 1xBet	1.74 fair best 1.70 · Betano
−0.75	1.99 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	2.01 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet
−0.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.72 · Betano	44% fair 2.28 best 2.20 · SBO
−0.25	1.57 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet	2.76 fair best 2.51 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Borussia Dortmund	Real Betis
−1.75	3.85 fair best 3.40 · 1xBet	1.35 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−1.5	32% fair 3.12 best 2.99 · 1xBet	68% fair 1.47 best 1.47 · 1xBet
−1.25	2.72 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet	1.58 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet
−1	2.36 fair best 2.24 · 1xBet	1.74 fair best 1.70 · Betano
−0.75	1.99 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	2.01 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet
−0.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.72 · Betano	44% fair 2.28 best 2.20 · SBO
−0.25	1.57 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet	2.76 fair best 2.51 · 1xBet
0	1.36 fair best 1.32 · 1xBet	3.75 fair best 3.30 · Bet365
+0.25	1.30 fair best 1.26 · 1xBet	4.36 fair best 3.70 · Bet365

Goals by team

Borussia Dortmund goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.55 · BetVictor	39% fair 2.58 best 2.45 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.55 · BetVictor	39% fair 2.58 best 2.45 · 1xBet
2.5	32% fair 3.10 best 2.75 · BetVictor	68% fair 1.48 best 1.48 · 1xBet

Real Betis goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.50 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · Bet365	28% fair 3.59 best 3.20 · 1xBet
1.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.50 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
41% fair 2.47 best 2.30 · SBO	37% fair 2.69 best 2.50 · William Hill	22% fair 4.48 best 4.50 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.99 fair best 1.91 · SBO	2.01 fair best 1.95 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.36 · SBO	59% fair 1.69 best 1.71 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.38 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor	3.67 fair best 3.17 · 1xBet
1	1.54 fair best 1.53 · Betano	2.84 fair best 2.62 · 1xBet
1.25	1.99 fair best 1.91 · SBO	2.01 fair best 1.95 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.36 · SBO	59% fair 1.69 best 1.71 · 1xBet
1.75	3.14 fair best 2.58 · 1xBet	1.47 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook	35% fair 2.84 best 2.55 · Betano
9.5	52% fair 1.91 best 1.91 · Betfair Sportsbook	48% fair 2.09 best 1.95 · 1xBet
10.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook	60% fair 1.67 best 1.55 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook	35% fair 2.84 best 2.55 · Betano
9	1.68 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet	2.47 fair best 2.20 · 1xBet
9.5	52% fair 1.91 best 1.91 · Betfair Sportsbook	48% fair 2.09 best 1.95 · 1xBet
10	2.19 fair best 1.99 · 1xBet	1.84 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet
10.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook	60% fair 1.67 best 1.55 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Borussia Dortmund	Real Betis
−3	2.67 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet	1.60 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
−2.5	44% fair 2.28 best 2.07 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · Betano
−2	2.02 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
−1.5	55% fair 1.81 best 1.68 · 1xBet	45% fair 2.24 best 2.05 · 1xBet
−1	1.62 fair best 1.52 · Marathonbet	2.62 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
3.5	57% fair 1.74 best 1.67 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.35 best 2.45 · Betano
4	2.15 fair —	1.87 fair —
4.5	37% fair 2.68 best 2.05 · Betano	63% fair 1.59 best 1.75 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
3	1.41 fair —	3.41 fair —
3.5	57% fair 1.74 best 1.67 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.35 best 2.45 · Betano
4	2.15 fair —	1.87 fair —
4.5	37% fair 2.68 best 2.05 · Betano	63% fair 1.59 best 1.75 · Betano
5	3.88 fair —	1.35 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–110.1%fair 9.87
2–19.7%fair 10.26
2–08.0%fair 12.50
1–07.1%fair 14.11
3–16.7%fair 14.94
2–25.9%fair 16.86

Total goals

04%
111%
221%
322%
4+41%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Borussia Dortmund at home, Real Betis away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Borussia Dortmund	Real Betis
Goals scored per game	1.70 (2.40)	2.00 (1.60)
Goals conceded per game	1.00 (1.10)	1.40 (1.70)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (70%)	60% (60%)
Both teams scored	50% (50%)	70% (80%)
Clean sheets	40% (40%)	30% (20%)
Failed to score	20% (10%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	1.82 / 1.46	1.83 / 1.36
Corners for / against per game	7.00 / 4.10	5.10 / 4.60
Cards per game	1.70	1.90

Over 2.5 goals: Borussia Dortmund in 60% and Real Betis in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.

From 10 matches for Borussia Dortmund and 10 for Real Betis. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Borussia Dortmund averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Real Betis averaged 1.6 and 1.6 over 5.

The sharp market price on Borussia Dortmund has barely moved since opening (1.75 to 1.75) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Borussia Dortmund is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Borussia Dortmund here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Borussia Dortmund

D W W W D

avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Real Betis

W D W L W

avg 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Sat, 31 Oct · 17:00 UTC

1 Borussia Dortmund · soft 1.80 (1xBet) · fair 1.74 · edge +3.3%

Opening sharp

1.75

Current Value still active

soft 1.80 · sharp 1.75 · fair 1.78 · edge +1.0%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 28 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/X · Home or draw

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.24

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Borussia Dortmund

Odds when flagged 1.80

Fair odds 1.74

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint ecaf4060fdafda53

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit