UEFA Champions League Wed, 04 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

Fair price as of 22:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 19:35 UTC
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Most likely: Manchester City 63%
Over 2.5 goals: 72%
Most likely score 1–2 (9.3%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Manchester City the most likely outcome at 63% — fair odds of 1.59. Unibet (SE) offers 1.62, a market gap of +2.0% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is High and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — RB Leipzig: WWWLL; Manchester City: LDLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Value flag

2 Manchester City @ 1.62

Bookmaker Unibet (SE)

Price observed Mon, 02 Nov · 22:34 UTC

Flag recorded Wed, 28 Oct · 11:00 UTC @ 1.61 (GTbets) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 1.59

Unibet (SE) 1.62

Market Gap +2.0%

Confidence High

Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Edge at detection +2.5% @ 1.61 · 28 Oct

Edge right now +2.0% @ 1.62 · 1 hour ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Manchester City (2) is priced at 1.62 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.59 — a +2.0% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

The market's most likely result

2 Away win 63%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	18%	19%	63%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	17%	19%	64%
Our model	24%	20%	55%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.57

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 5.19 / 4.80 / 1.53

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds now 1.59

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 5.54 / 4.93 / 1.62

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 38 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	5.66	5.18	1.59
Pinnacle sharp	5.31	4.87	1.56
1xBet	5.54 ★	4.93 ★	1.58
888sport	5.00	4.50	1.53
BetAnything	5.31	4.87	1.56
BetOnline.ag	5.31	4.87	1.56
Coolbet	5.25	4.80	1.60
Unibet (NL)	5.10	4.80	1.61
Unibet (SE)	5.10	4.80	1.62 ★

Show all 38 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	5.70	4.90	1.59
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	5.70	4.90	1.59
Matchbook exchange	5.70	4.90	1.59
Smarkets exchange	5.70	4.90	1.58
BetVictor	5.25	4.75	1.53
Betclic (FR)	4.60	4.60	1.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only	5.50	4.60	1.53
Betsson	5.35	4.70	1.52
Betway UK-only	4.75	4.75	1.53
BoyleSports UK-only	5.00	4.50	1.53
Casumo UK-only	4.50	4.25	1.51
Codere (IT)	5.00	4.60	1.57
Coral UK-only	5.00	4.60	1.50
GTbets	5.17	4.78	1.53
Grosvenor UK-only	4.75	4.50	1.57
Ladbrokes UK-only	5.00	4.60	1.50
LeoVegas UK-only	4.70	4.60	1.52
LeoVegas (SE)	4.75	4.50	1.57
LiveScore Bet UK-only	4.60	4.40	1.56
Marathonbet	5.40	4.80	1.54
Nordic Bet	5.45	4.80	1.55
PMU (FR)	4.40	4.20	1.50
Paddy Power UK-only	5.00	4.50	1.53
Sky Bet UK-only	5.00	4.50	1.53
Unibet (FR)	4.50	4.30	1.46
Unibet (UK) UK-only	5.00	4.75	1.54
Virgin Bet UK-only	4.60	4.40	1.56
William Hill	5.00	4.50	1.53
Winamax (DE)	4.70	4.90	1.52
Winamax (FR)	4.50	4.70	1.49

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 20:17 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	72% fair 1.40 best 1.38 · Betano	28% fair 3.51 best 3.20 · Bet365
3.5	50% fair 1.99 best 1.98 · 1xBet	50% fair 2.01 best 1.96 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	72% fair 1.40 best 1.38 · Betano	28% fair 3.51 best 3.20 · Bet365
2.75	1.47 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet	3.15 fair best 2.80 · 1xBet
3	1.57 fair best 1.55 · 1xBet	2.75 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet
3.25	1.78 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet	2.29 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet
3.5	50% fair 1.99 best 1.98 · 1xBet	50% fair 2.01 best 1.96 · 1xBet
3.75	2.25 fair best 2.20 · SBO	1.80 fair best 1.73 · 1xBet
4	2.68 fair best 2.52 · Betano	1.60 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet
4.25	3.02 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet	1.50 fair best 1.44 · BetVictor
4.5	30% fair 3.38 best 3.04 · 1xBet	70% fair 1.42 best 1.40 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
37% fair 2.70 best 2.55 · Marathonbet	81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · 1xBet	82% fair 1.21 best 1.20 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	RB Leipzig	Manchester City
+0.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.47 · Betano	63% fair 1.58 best 1.57 · Betano
+0.75	2.41 fair best 2.27 · 1xBet	1.71 fair best 1.70 · SBO
+1	2.11 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	1.90 fair best 1.90 · Betano
+1.25	1.85 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet	2.18 fair best 2.17 · SBO
+1.5	60% fair 1.68 best 1.67 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.47 best 2.40 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	RB Leipzig	Manchester City
0	4.78 fair best 4.21 · 1xBet	1.26 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
+0.25	3.39 fair best 3.02 · 1xBet	1.42 fair best 1.38 · Bet365
+0.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.47 · Betano	63% fair 1.58 best 1.57 · Betano
+0.75	2.41 fair best 2.27 · 1xBet	1.71 fair best 1.70 · SBO
+1	2.11 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	1.90 fair best 1.90 · Betano
+1.25	1.85 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet	2.18 fair best 2.17 · SBO
+1.5	60% fair 1.68 best 1.67 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.47 best 2.40 · Betano
+1.75	1.52 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet	2.94 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet
+2	1.35 fair best 1.34 · 1xBet	3.83 fair best 3.35 · BetVictor

Goals by team

RB Leipzig goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	35% fair 2.85 best 2.53 · Marathonbet	65% fair 1.54 best 1.51 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · Betano	27% fair 3.74 best 3.40 · Bet365
1.5	35% fair 2.85 best 2.53 · Marathonbet	65% fair 1.54 best 1.51 · 1xBet

Manchester City goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	43% fair 2.33 best 2.20 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.72 · Marathonbet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	71% fair 1.41 best 1.40 · Betano	29% fair 3.44 best 3.14 · Marathonbet
2.5	43% fair 2.33 best 2.20 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.72 · Marathonbet
3.5	20% fair 4.89 best 4.10 · 1xBet	80% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
19% fair 5.16 best 5.00 · 1xBet	34% fair 2.93 best 2.80 · Betfair Sportsbook	46% fair 2.15 best 2.04 · SBO

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	47% fair 2.12 best 2.02 · Betano	53% fair 1.89 best 1.88 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.40 fair best 1.40 · Betano	3.51 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet
1.25	1.75 fair best 1.69 · SBO	2.33 fair best 2.25 · 1xBet
1.5	47% fair 2.12 best 2.02 · Betano	53% fair 1.89 best 1.88 · 1xBet
1.75	2.60 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet	1.62 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
2	3.67 fair best 3.20 · Betano	1.37 fair best 1.39 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	37% fair 2.74 best 2.65 · Betano
9.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.85 · Betfair Sportsbook	49% fair 2.06 best 2.02 · Betano
10.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.40 · Betfair Sportsbook	60% fair 1.68 best 1.60 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	63% fair 1.58 best 1.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	37% fair 2.74 best 2.65 · Betano
9	1.72 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet	2.40 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet
9.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.85 · Betfair Sportsbook	49% fair 2.06 best 2.02 · Betano
10	2.20 fair best 2.02 · Betano	1.83 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
10.5	40% fair 2.48 best 2.40 · Betfair Sportsbook	60% fair 1.68 best 1.60 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	RB Leipzig	Manchester City
+1.5	42% fair 2.36 best 2.17 · 1xBet	58% fair 1.73 best 1.61 · Marathonbet
+2	2.12 fair best 2.00 · Bet365	1.90 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
+2.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.80 · Bet365	47% fair 2.11 best 2.00 · Bet365
+3	1.71 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet	2.41 fair best 2.22 · 1xBet
+3.5	63% fair 1.60 best 1.47 · 1xBet	37% fair 2.68 best 2.45 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.62 · 1xBet	35% fair 2.85 best 2.25 · Betano
3	1.83 fair best 1.91 · Betano	2.21 fair best 1.87 · Betano
3.5	43% fair 2.35 best 2.30 · Betano	57% fair 1.74 best 1.67 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
2	1.21 fair —	5.69 fair —
2.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.62 · 1xBet	35% fair 2.85 best 2.25 · Betano
3	1.83 fair best 1.91 · Betano	2.21 fair best 1.87 · Betano
3.5	43% fair 2.35 best 2.30 · Betano	57% fair 1.74 best 1.67 · 1xBet
4	3.30 fair —	1.43 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–29.3%fair 10.80
1–18.1%fair 12.38
1–37.6%fair 13.22
0–27.4%fair 13.57
0–36.0%fair 16.63
2–25.8%fair 17.17

Total goals

03%
18%
217%
321%
4+51%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: RB Leipzig at home, Manchester City away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	RB Leipzig	Manchester City
Goals scored per game	2.30 (3.20)	2.70 (2.00)
Goals conceded per game	1.70 (0.30)	1.50 (0.70)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (80%)	80% (50%)
Both teams scored	40% (30%)	60% (40%)
Clean sheets	50% (70%)	30% (60%)
Failed to score	10% (0%)	10% (0%)
xG for / against per game	2.29 / 1.73	2.07 / 1.57
Corners for / against per game	4.90 / 6.70	6.00 / 4.00
Cards per game	1.50	1.30

Over 2.5 goals: RB Leipzig in 70% and Manchester City in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 72% for this match.

From 10 matches for RB Leipzig and 10 for Manchester City. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

RB Leipzig averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Manchester City averaged 2.2 and 1.6 over 5.

The sharp market price on Manchester City has barely moved since opening (1.54 to 1.56) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

RB Leipzig has won its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on RB Leipzig here.

Manchester City is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.

✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Manchester City at +2.0% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

RB Leipzig

W W W L L

avg 2 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Manchester City

L D L W W

avg 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

28 Nov 2023 Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig

04 Oct 2023 RB Leipzig 1–3 Manchester City

14 Mar 2023 Manchester City 7–0 RB Leipzig

22 Feb 2023 RB Leipzig 1–1 Manchester City

07 Dec 2021 RB Leipzig 2–1 Manchester City

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Wed, 28 Oct · 11:00 UTC

2 Manchester City · soft 1.61 (GTbets) · fair 1.57 · edge +2.5%

Opening sharp

1.54

Current Value still active

soft 1.62 · sharp 1.56 · fair 1.59 · edge +2.0%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 28 Oct 2026 · 06:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.53

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Manchester City

Odds when flagged 1.61

Fair odds 1.57

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 582760f1f85f5f40

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit