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Serie B

Hellas Verona 2–2 Catanzaro

Final score · Half-time 1–1 · Latest results

When the value flag on Hellas Verona was recorded live, the sharp market made Hellas Verona the most likely outcome at 53% (fair odds 1.88). On Hellas Verona, Codere (IT) offered 1.92, +2.1% above its fair price of 1.88 (Value flag). Recent form — Hellas Verona: LWLWD; Catanzaro: LLWLL.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 11' 0–1 Antonio Candela · goal · assist Marco Imperiale · Catanzaro
  2. 37' 1–1 Daniel Mosquera · goal · assist Dailon Livramento · Hellas Verona
  3. 41' Dailon Livramento · yellow card · Hellas Verona
  4. 67' 2–1 Daniel Mosquera · goal · assist Amin Sarr · Hellas Verona
  5. 75' 2–2 Emanuele Pecorino (pen.) · Catanzaro
  6. 76' Gabriele Alesi · yellow card · Catanzaro
  7. 90+1' Marco Imperiale · yellow card · Catanzaro

Match stats

Match statsHellas VeronaCatanzaro
Possession %5743
Expected goals (xG)1.971.24
Shots257
Shots on target64
Corners130
Yellow cards12
Red cards00
Fouls2111
Offsides01
Goalkeeper saves23

What the market said before kick-off

  • Hellas Verona win 55% did not happen
  • Draw 25% happened
  • Catanzaro win 20% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 52% happened
  • Value flag before kick-off: 1 · Hellas Verona @ 1.92 (Codere (IT)) Lost

CLV +5.1% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Mario Perri · Venue: Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1

  1. 34 S. Perilli GK
  2. 4 G. Zappa DF
  3. 37 N. Calabrese DF
  4. 27 P. Dawidowicz DF
  5. 71 D. De Battisti DF
  6. 17 A. Le Borgne MF
  7. 24 A. Bernede MF
  8. 14 D. Livramento MF
  9. 44 E. Iannoni MF
  10. 9 A. Sarr MF
  11. 25 D. Mosquera FW

Bench: C. Ekuban, S. Cerbone, F. Cham, A. Harroui, G. Kastanos, N. Leali, N. Lella, S. Mulattieri, K. Sezonienko, T. Slotsager, M. Frese, R. Akale

Coach: M. Baroni

Regular starters not in the XI

  • A. Edmundsson — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • N. Leali — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
  • S. Mulattieri — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Catanzaro 3-4-2-1

  1. 22 M. Pigliacelli GK
  2. 24 M. Ruggero DF
  3. 4 Matias Antonini DF
  4. 3 M. Imperiale DF
  5. 27 A. Candela MF
  6. 98 N. Mosti MF
  7. 10 J. Petriccione MF
  8. 29 F. Di Francesco MF
  9. 14 S. Giovane MF
  10. 9 P. Iemmello MF
  11. 31 E. Pecorino FW

Bench: G. Arditi, G. Alesi, N. Buso, M. D'Alessandro, M. Dorval, R. Frosinini, N. Koffi, C. Marietta, S. Pafundi, Niccolò Postiglione, F. Tchaouna, B. Verrengia

Coach: Giorgio Gorgone

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 59 / 23 / 18% when the line-ups came out, 55 / 25 / 20% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Value flag

1 Hellas Verona @ 1.92
Bookmaker Codere (IT)
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 1.92 (Codere (IT)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 1.88
Codere (IT) 1.92
Market Gap +2.1%
Confidence High
Model agreement Low

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Value flag result Lost · 1 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Hellas Verona (1) was priced at 1.92 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.88 — a +2.1% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/X Home or draw 76% · as recorded

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded51%25%24%
Other estimates
Our model37%27%36%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.32
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.91 / 3.70 / 3.88
Pick result (single or double chance) Won · X

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
1 Hellas Verona · soft 1.92 (Codere (IT)) · fair 1.88 · edge +2.1%
Opening sharp
1.91
At close
1.83 · CLV +5.1%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Hellas Verona averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Catanzaro averaged 0.8 and 1.8 over 5.

Since opening around 1.91, the sharp market price on Hellas Verona has shortened to 1.83 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Hellas Verona is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Hellas Verona at +2.1% above fair.
Catanzaro has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Catanzaro here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Hellas Verona
L W L W D
avg 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Catanzaro
L L W L L
avg 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/X · Home or draw
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.21
Prediction CLV +4.3%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Hellas Verona
Odds when flagged 1.92
Fair odds 1.88
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) 1.83
Value CLV +5.1%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 66ae576342aac3e1

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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