Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City
Final score · Half-time 0–2 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, St. Louis City was the most likely outcome at 38% (fair odds 2.60). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Minnesota United FC: DDLLL; St. Louis City: DWWWW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 4' 0–1 Rafael Navarro Leal · goal · St. Louis City
- 10' 0–2 Sang-bin Jung · goal · assist Rafael Navarro Leal · St. Louis City
- 24' Aziel Jackson · yellow card · Minnesota United FC
- 26' Miguel Perez · yellow card · St. Louis City
- 49' 1–2 Aziel Jackson · goal · assist Kelvin Yeboah · Minnesota United FC
- 51' Sang-bin Jung · yellow card · St. Louis City
- 68' 2–2 Kelvin Yeboah · goal · assist Mauricio González Carabalí · Minnesota United FC
- 86' 3–2 Marcus Caldeira · goal · assist Joaquín Pereyra · Minnesota United FC
- 90' Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño · yellow card · Minnesota United FC
Match stats
| Match stats | Minnesota United FC | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 45 | 55 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 3.46 | 1.70 |
| Shots | 27 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 11 | 6 |
| Corners | 6 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 14 | 15 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 7 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Minnesota United FC win 41% happened
- Draw 25% did not happen
- St. Louis City win 35% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 63% happened
- Both teams score 68% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
- 12 D. Callender GK
- 52 Cherrion Valerius DF
- 28 J. Díaz DF
- 23 M. Duggan DF
- 21 B. Hlongwane MF
- 25 N. Triantis MF
- 20 W. Trapp MF
- 13 A. Markanich MF
- 18 M. Gonzalez MF
- 16 A. Jackson FW
- 9 K. Yeboah FW
Bench: N. Romero, Kayne Rizvanovich, J. Pereyra, M. Malone, O. Gene, K. Duncan, T. Chancalay, Marcus Caldeira, M. Boxall
Coach: C. Knowles
Regular starters not in the XI
- O. Gene — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- M. Boxall — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- T. Chancalay — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
St. Louis City 3-4-3
- 1 R. Bürki GK
- 99 J. Orozco DF
- 32 T. Baumgartl DF
- 27 F. Fall DF
- 59 M. Joyner MF
- 21 D. Polvara MF
- 28 M. Perez MF
- 14 T. Totland MF
- 77 Jeong Sang-Bin FW
- 9 Rafael Navarro FW
- 11 S. Becher FW
Bench: Rafael Santos, C. Brunet, D. Downs, D. Edelman, C. Holse, B. Lundt, L. MacNaughton, A. Mățan, T. Ostrák
Coach: Y. Damet
Regular starters not in the XI
- C. Wallem — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- C. Holse — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- D. Edelman — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Christopher Durkin — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Alexandru Mățan — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 38 / 24 / 38% when the line-ups came out, 41 / 25 / 35% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 22% | 21% | 58% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Minnesota United FC averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; St. Louis City averaged 3.2 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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