Most likely wins tomorrow
The market's strongest favourites: every home or away win that Pinnacle's price, without the margin, puts at 65% or more, in all the competitions we cover. Sorted by chance.
Yesterday: 38 of 50 won (chance shown: 74% on average). Full record →
This is the market's price, not a tip of ours: none of our models picks winners better than it. A high chance is not a profit: bookmakers usually pay less than the fair odds on favourites, and every match added to a slip lowers its chance.
| Kick-off | Match | Win | Chance | Fair odds | Best price | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Manchester City
 AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League · price
|
Manchester City to win (1) | 90% | 1.11 | 1.11 Unibet (SE) | ||
 Sabah FA
 Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League · price
|
Borussia Dortmund to win (2) | 76% | 1.32 | 1.33 GTbets | ||
 Al-Nassr
 NEOM
Saudi Pro League · price
|
Al-Nassr to win (1) | 70% | 1.43 | 1.39 1xBet | ||
 Asyut Petrol
 Zamalek SC
Egypt Premier League · price
|
Zamalek SC to win (2) | 69% | 1.45 | — | ||
 Al Taawon
 Al-Qadisiyah FC
Saudi Pro League · price
|
Al-Qadisiyah FC to win (2) | 67% | 1.50 | 1.48 1xBet | ||
 Liverpool
 Villarreal
UEFA Champions League · price
|
Liverpool to win (1) | 66% | 1.51 | 1.52 GTbets | ||
 Al Diriyah
 Al Riyadh
Saudi Pro League · price
|
Al Diriyah to win (1) | 66% | 1.52 | 1.49 1xBet |
Football predictions, answered honestly
How do you choose the most likely wins?
We don't choose them. We take Pinnacle's current 1X2 price, remove the margin and list every home or away win the market puts at 65% or more, in all the competitions we cover. The draw is never on the list.
How often do they win?
About as often as the chance shown. In our backtest on 6,779 matches, favourites shown at 74% on average won 75% of the time. Every match on the list is recorded before kick-off, and the public record compares the chance shown with the result.
Are these favourites profitable?
Not by themselves: the chance is already in the price. In our backtest, betting on every one at Pinnacle's closing odds returned -0.6 per 100 staked (95% interval -4.4 to +3.2), and most bookmakers pay less than Pinnacle on favourites.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included