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Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls

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The sharp market makes Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 65% — fair odds of 1.55. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Nashville SC: DWDWW; New York Red Bulls: LWLLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here: no bookmaker's odds beat the fair price, so there is no price worth taking.

Betting on Nashville SC anyway? The best price we see is 1.53 at 1xBet, -1.2% against the fair odds of 1.55. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's most likely result

1 Home win 65%
1X2
Sharp now65%19%16%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded68%18%14%
Our model70%21%9%
Fair odds (as recorded) 1.47
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.43 / 4.96 / 6.07

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds now 1.55
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.53 / 4.95 / 6.00
Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.555.236.12
Pinnacle sharp 1.51 4.93 5.67
1xBet 1.53 ★ 4.95 5.67
888sport 1.50 4.40 5.00
BetAnything 1.53 ★ 4.88 5.70
BetOnline.ag 1.53 ★ 4.88 5.70
BetVictor 1.45 4.80 5.75
LeoVegas (SE) 1.50 4.90 6.00 ★
Sky Bet UK-only 1.44 5.00 ★ 5.00
Show all 40 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.54 5.10 5.90
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.54 5.10 5.90
Matchbook exchange 1.55 5.10 5.90
Smarkets exchange 1.53 5.00 6.00
Betano (UK) UK-only 1.45 4.80 5.75
Betclic (FR) 1.45 4.45 4.85
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 1.50 4.75 5.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only 1.44 4.50 5.50
Betsson 1.48 4.80 5.90
Betway UK-only 1.50 4.75 5.25
BoyleSports UK-only 1.44 4.50 4.75
Casumo UK-only 1.47 4.70 5.60
Coolbet 1.48 4.75 5.75
Coral UK-only 1.48 4.40 4.80
GTbets 1.47 4.81 5.60
Grosvenor UK-only 1.44 4.50 5.40
Ladbrokes UK-only 1.48 4.40 4.80
LeoVegas UK-only 1.48 4.70 5.00
LiveScore Bet UK-only 1.46 4.60 5.50
Marathonbet 1.47 4.75 5.45
MyBookie.ag 1.48 4.70 5.90
Nordic Bet 1.48 4.80 5.90
PMU (FR) 1.40 4.30 5.20
Paddy Power UK-only 1.50 4.75 5.00
Tipico 1.42 4.90 5.30
Unibet (FR) 1.39 4.45 4.85
Unibet (NL) 1.47 4.70 5.60
Unibet (SE) 1.47 4.70 5.60
Virgin Bet UK-only 1.45 4.50 5.40
William Hill 1.50 4.40 5.00
Winamax (DE) 1.47 4.70 4.80
Winamax (FR) 1.43 4.40 4.50

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Nashville SC

  • Out O. Presthus · injury
  • Doubtful F. Camara · injury

New York Red Bulls

  • Out R. Donkor · suspended started 28 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out D. Nealis · suspended started 27 of 31 team matches this season
  • Out J. Che · injury started 18 of 31 team matches this season

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 87% fair 1.16 best 1.13 · Betano 13% fair 7.42 best 7.00 · BetVictor
2.5 68% fair 1.47 best 1.41 · Nordic Bet 32% fair 3.14 best 3.10 · Bet365
3.5 46% fair 2.17 best 2.04 · SBO 54% fair 1.85 best 1.91 · 1xBet
All lines (10)
Line OverUnder
1.5 87% fair 1.16 best 1.13 · Betano 13% fair 7.42 best 7.00 · BetVictor
2.5 68% fair 1.47 best 1.41 · Nordic Bet 32% fair 3.14 best 3.10 · Bet365
2.75 1.56 fair best 1.47 · BetVictor 2.78 fair best 2.52 · Marathonbet
3 1.70 fair best 1.60 · Betano 2.43 fair best 2.42 · Betano
3.25 1.93 fair best 1.81 · SBO 2.07 fair best 2.03 · SBO
3.5 46% fair 2.17 best 2.04 · SBO 54% fair 1.85 best 1.91 · 1xBet
3.75 2.52 fair best 2.12 · Marathonbet 1.66 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor
4 2.89 fair best 2.65 · Betano 1.53 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet
4.5 25% fair 3.95 best 3.25 · Bet365 75% fair 1.34 best 1.38 · 1xBet
5.5 12% fair 8.40 best 6.00 · BetVictor 88% fair 1.14 best 1.16 · Betano

Both teams to score
YesNo
62% fair 1.62 best 1.54 · MyBookie.ag 38% fair 2.61 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook

Double chance
1X12X2
84% fair 1.20 best 1.17 · Bet365 81% fair 1.24 best 1.19 · Betano 35% fair 2.82 best 2.60 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Nashville SCNew York Red Bulls
−1.75 2.80 fair best 2.53 · BetVictor 1.56 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−1.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.29 · SBO 58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Betano
−1.25 2.11 fair best 2.06 · SBO 1.90 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
−1 1.84 fair best 1.80 · Betano 2.19 fair best 2.07 · Betano
−0.75 1.66 fair best 1.60 · Bet365 2.51 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
All lines (10)
Line Nashville SCNew York Red Bulls
−2.25 4.05 fair best 3.45 · Bet365 1.33 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−2 3.57 fair best 3.20 · BetVictor 1.39 fair best 1.38 · Betano
−1.75 2.80 fair best 2.53 · BetVictor 1.56 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−1.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.29 · SBO 58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Betano
−1.25 2.11 fair best 2.06 · SBO 1.90 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
−1 1.84 fair best 1.80 · Betano 2.19 fair best 2.07 · Betano
−0.75 1.66 fair best 1.60 · Bet365 2.51 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
−0.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · Betano 35% fair 2.85 best 2.62 · Betano
−0.25 1.39 fair best 1.35 · Bet365 3.57 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
0 1.24 fair best 1.22 · Bet365 5.11 fair best 4.15 · Bet365

Goals by team

Nashville SC goals

Line OverUnder
2.5 42% fair 2.36 best 2.25 · Bet365 58% fair 1.74 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
1.5 71% fair 1.41 best 1.44 · Bet365 29% fair 3.43 best 3.00 · BetVictor
2.5 42% fair 2.36 best 2.25 · Bet365 58% fair 1.74 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
3.5 20% fair 5.04 best 4.50 · Bet365 80% fair 1.25 best 1.24 · Betano

New York Red Bulls goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 32% fair 3.13 best 3.00 · Bet365 68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365 30% fair 3.35 best 3.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 32% fair 3.13 best 3.00 · Bet365 68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1X2
50% fair 1.99 best 1.97 · SBO 33% fair 3.01 best 2.70 · Betfair Sportsbook 17% fair 6.03 best 5.25 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · Bet365 54% fair 1.86 best 1.80 · Marathonbet
All lines (6)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.32 fair best 1.31 · BetVictor 4.08 fair best 3.05 · BetVictor
1 1.41 fair best 1.42 · Betano 3.42 fair best 2.97 · Marathonbet
1.25 1.78 fair best 1.75 · SBO 2.27 fair best 2.09 · SBO
1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · Bet365 54% fair 1.86 best 1.80 · Marathonbet
1.75 2.65 fair best 2.25 · BetVictor 1.61 fair best 1.55 · BetVictor
2 3.80 fair best 3.30 · Betano 1.36 fair best 1.35 · Marathonbet

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.87 · Betano 46% fair 2.18 best 2.01 · Marathonbet
10 2.09 fair — 1.92 fair —
10.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.42 · Betano 58% fair 1.72 best 1.59 · Marathonbet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.62 fair — 2.62 fair —
9.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.87 · Betano 46% fair 2.18 best 2.01 · Marathonbet
10 2.09 fair — 1.92 fair —
10.5 42% fair 2.38 best 2.42 · Betano 58% fair 1.72 best 1.59 · Marathonbet
11 2.88 fair — 1.53 fair —

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line Nashville SCNew York Red Bulls
−3 2.85 fair best 2.71 · Marathonbet 1.54 fair best 1.38 · Marathonbet
−2.5 41% fair 2.41 best 2.12 · Marathonbet 59% fair 1.71 best 1.58 · Marathonbet
−2 2.12 fair best 1.93 · Marathonbet 1.89 fair best 1.74 · Marathonbet
−1.5 53% fair 1.87 best 1.90 · Bet365 47% fair 2.15 best 1.92 · Marathonbet
−1 1.67 fair best 1.60 · Marathonbet 2.50 fair best 2.14 · Marathonbet
All lines (6)
Line Nashville SCNew York Red Bulls
−3 2.85 fair best 2.71 · Marathonbet 1.54 fair best 1.38 · Marathonbet
−2.5 41% fair 2.41 best 2.12 · Marathonbet 59% fair 1.71 best 1.58 · Marathonbet
−2 2.12 fair best 1.93 · Marathonbet 1.89 fair best 1.74 · Marathonbet
−1.5 53% fair 1.87 best 1.90 · Bet365 47% fair 2.15 best 1.92 · Marathonbet
−1 1.67 fair best 1.60 · Marathonbet 2.50 fair best 2.14 · Marathonbet
−0.5 64% fair 1.55 best 1.65 · Betano 36% fair 2.80 best 2.05 · Betano

Cards (bookings)
Line OverUnder
2.5 66% fair 1.52 best 1.38 · Betano 34% fair 2.92 best 2.90 · Betano
3.5 45% fair 2.24 best 2.10 · Bet365 55% fair 1.80 best 1.90 · Betano
4.5 25% fair 3.95 best 2.65 · Betano 75% fair 1.34 best 1.45 · Betano
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
2.5 66% fair 1.52 best 1.38 · Betano 34% fair 2.92 best 2.90 · Betano
3 1.77 fair — 2.30 fair —
3.5 45% fair 2.24 best 2.10 · Bet365 55% fair 1.80 best 1.90 · Betano
4 3.15 fair — 1.46 fair —
4.5 25% fair 3.95 best 2.65 · Betano 75% fair 1.34 best 1.45 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 2–19.6%fair 10.46
  2. 2–08.4%fair 11.87
  3. 1–18.4%fair 11.91
  4. 3–17.6%fair 13.18
  5. 1–06.7%fair 14.88
  6. 3–06.7%fair 14.97

Total goals

  • 03%
  • 110%
  • 219%
  • 322%
  • 4+47%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Nashville SC at home, New York Red Bulls away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesNashville SCNew York Red Bulls
Goals scored per game 1.90 (2.40) 1.10 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game 0.60 (0.40) 1.30 (1.40)
Over 2.5 goals 50% (60%) 40% (60%)
Both teams scored 40% (30%) 30% (60%)
Clean sheets 60% (70%) 40% (30%)
Failed to score 20% (10%) 40% (20%)
xG for / against per game 2.14 / 1.06 2.06 / 1.60
Corners for / against per game 4.80 / 4.10 5.50 / 4.90
Cards per game 1.40 2.00

Over 2.5 goals: Nashville SC in 50% and New York Red Bulls in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 68% for this match.

Both teams scored in 40% of Nashville SC's and 30% of New York Red Bulls's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 62% here.

From 10 matches for Nashville SC and 10 for New York Red Bulls. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Nashville SC averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; New York Red Bulls averaged 1.8 and 1.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Nashville SC is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Nashville SC here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Nashville SC
D W D W W
avg 2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)
New York Red Bulls
L W L L W
avg 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
19 Aug 2026 New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SC
15 May 2025 Nashville SC 2–1 New York Red Bulls
02 Mar 2025 New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SC

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.43
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 90f67d055e87e304

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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