Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 Libertad
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Deportivo Cuenca the most likely outcome at 57% — fair odds of 1.75. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Deportivo Cuenca: WLDLL; Libertad: DLWDW.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Deportivo Cuenca | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 55 | 45 |
| Shots | 25 | 8 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 5 |
| Corners | 12 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 9 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Deportivo Cuenca win 54% did not happen
- Draw 27% did not happen
- Libertad win 19% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Deportivo Cuenca 4-2-3-1
- F. Ferrero GK
- Marcos Andrés López Cabrera DF
- P. Boolsen DF
- S. Postel DF
- Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua DF
- M. Maccari MF
- É. Vega MF
- Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia MF
- C. Arboleda MF
- J. Ordoñez MF
- C. Benalcazar FW
Libertad 5-4-1
- D. Cabezas GK
- E. Patta DF
- M. Lucas DF
- C. Gruezo DF
- O. Quiñónez DF
- J. Rodríguez DF
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín MF
- C. Valencia MF
- X. Pineda MF
- D. Coronel MF
- A. Chére FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 54 / 27 / 19% when the line-ups came out, 54 / 27 / 19% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–2 (Deportivo Cuenca wins – draws – Libertad wins).
Deportivo Cuenca scored 0.6 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Libertad scored 1.2 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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