Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · Latest results
When the micro-edge on Melbourne Victory was recorded live, the sharp market made Melbourne Victory the most likely outcome at 44% (fair odds 2.27). On Melbourne Victory, Coolbet offered 2.30 against a fair price of 2.27, a +1.1% gap: too small to call value (Micro-edge). Recent form — Wellington Phoenix: LWLWW; Melbourne Victory: WDLWD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 14' 1–0 C. Piper · goal · assist M. Sheridan · Wellington Phoenix
- 24' 1–1 C. Nduka · goal · Melbourne Victory
- 45' P. Ziereis · yellow card · Melbourne Victory
- 71' D. Genreau · yellow card · Melbourne Victory
- 77' 2–1 R. Bidois · goal · assist N. Walker · Wellington Phoenix
Match stats
| Match stats | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 38 | 62 |
| Shots | 9 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 3 |
| Corners | 6 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 6 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 2 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71 | 78 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Wellington Phoenix win 26% happened
- Draw 26% did not happen
- Melbourne Victory win 48% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 55% happened
- Micro-edge flagged before kick-off (under 1.5%, monitor only): 2 · Melbourne Victory @ 2.30 (Coolbet) Lost
CLV +11.2% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Wellington Phoenix 4-4-2
- 13 Henry Gray GK
- 7 Bryce Duke DF
- 28 Bill Tuiloma DF
- 18 Lukas Kelly-Heald DF
- 23 James McGarry DF
- 27 Matthew Sheridan MF
- 35 Luke Mitchell MF
- 8 Max Anderson MF
- 25 Kazuki Nagasawa MF
- 99 Corban Piper FW
- 9 Rafael Duran FW
Bench: Alby Kelly-Heald, Walter Scott, Dylan Gardiner, Tze-xuan Loke, Anaru Cassidy, Nathan Walker, Riley Bidois
Melbourne Victory 4-4-2
- 25 Jack Duncan GK
- 16 Joshua Inserra DF
- 4 Philipp Ziereis DF
- 3 Jason Davidson DF
- 18 Franco Lino DF
- 14 Matthew Grimaldi MF
- 10 Denis Genreau MF
- 8 Jordi Valadon MF
- 11 Clarismario MF
- 21 Guillermo May FW
- 44 Charles Nduka FW
Bench: Jack Warshawsky, Tom Lockyer, Brendan Hamill, Harrison Shillington, Keegan Jelacic, Xavier Stella, Michael Ghossaini
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 28 / 26 / 46% when the line-ups came out, 26 / 26 / 48% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Melbourne Victory (2) was priced at 2.30 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.27 — a +1.1% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 33% | 25% | 42% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
Wellington Phoenix averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Melbourne Victory averaged 1.6 and 0.8 over 5.
Since opening around 2.29, the sharp market price on Melbourne Victory has shortened to 2.07 — the market has moved towards this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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