API-Football predictions, audited against the closing line
Below the closing line In plain words: the best odds on API-Football's predictions, when we read them, were on average 2.59% below the fair closing price.
As of 27 Oct 2026, API-Football has 1,502 settled predictions on matches we price. Of the 1,381 that were won or lost at a bookmaker price recorded when we read them, 68.8% were right, against 72.2% needed to break even at those odds. Flat-stake return at the recorded odds: -5.7% on 1,381 priced predictions. Closing line value: -2.59% (95% interval -2.88% to -2.30%, 1,373 predictions). The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth.
Measured by market
| Market | CLV (95% interval) | Hit rate | Break-even | ROI | Settled | Read | On our matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | -1.20% [-2.26; -0.18] · n=153 | 58.2%n=153 | 61.5% | -8.0% | 153 | 159 | 159 |
| Double chance | -2.90% [-3.23; -2.57] · n=1,069 | 69.1%n=1,072 | 72.5% | -5.5% | 1,092 | 1,146 | 1,146 |
| Over/under goals | -1.86% [-2.34; -1.38] · n=151 | 76.9%n=156 | 80.2% | -4.9% | 257 | 261 | 261 |
| All except correct score | -2.59% [-2.88; -2.30] · n=1,373 | 68.8%n=1,381 | 72.2% | -5.7% | 1,502 | 1,566 | 1,566 |
Hit rate and break-even use the predictions won or lost at a bookmaker price recorded when we read them (n under the rate; the best soft-bookmaker odds, exchanges excluded). CLV is measured against Pinnacle's closing price on the same selection with the margin removed; the 95% interval appears from 30 predictions and the return from 100 priced predictions.
How we measure
We read API-Football's prediction for each match we price once, before kick-off, from its predictions API, and publish only aggregate figures, never their picks. A match-result pick is a team they name to win outright (or the highest of their three percentages when they name no team). When they name a team to win or draw, or their advice is a plain double chance, the pick is that double chance, not a match result. Their over/under pick is the line they give. Each prediction is settled on the 90-minute result, priced at the best bookmaker odds available when we read it (exchanges excluded) and compared with Pinnacle's closing price on the same selection with the margin removed. A prediction read after kick-off does not count.
Coverage since 15 Oct 2026: 1,566 predictions read on all markets, 1,566 of them on matches we price, of which 1,502 are settled and 60 still pending.
Full methodology → Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public → What is closing line value (CLV)? →
Frequently asked
Are API-Football's predictions accurate?
As of 27 Oct 2026, API-Football has 1,502 settled predictions on matches we price. Of the 1,381 that were won or lost at a bookmaker price recorded when we read them, 68.8% were right, against 72.2% needed to break even at those odds. Flat-stake return at the recorded odds: -5.7% on 1,381 priced predictions. Closing line value: -2.59% (95% interval -2.88% to -2.30%, 1,373 predictions). The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth.
How many of API-Football's predictions did TipsAudit check?
Since 15 Oct 2026 we have read 1,566 of API-Football's match predictions. 1,566 are on matches we price: 1,502 settled, 60 still pending, 0 read after kick-off (these do not count) and 4 void or without a usable result. We read API-Football's prediction for each match we price once, before kick-off, from its API, and publish only aggregate figures.
What is API-Football's closing line value?
Across 1,373 predictions with a measurable close, API-Football's average closing line value is -2.59% (95% interval -2.88% to -2.30%), measured against Pinnacle's closing price on the same selection with the margin removed. The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth.
Which market is API-Football best at?
Of the 3 markets with at least 30 predictions with a measurable close, the strongest by closing line value is Match result (1X2): -1.20% (95% interval -2.26% to -0.18%, 153 predictions). The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth.
Right of reply: if API-Football disputes a figure on this page, write to us and we will publish the response next to it.
API-Football is also one of our data providers: we pay for its fixtures, results and line-ups like any other customer, and the results we settle on come from it too. We have no other relationship with API-Football or with any bookmaker, sell no picks and measure our own predictions the same way.