Dropping odds: where the sharp market moved

Pinnacle's fair probability (margin removed) when we logged the match, usually several days before, against now, for the matches in the next 48 hours. Biggest moves first.

Next 48 hours

Last 90 days: the 964 outcomes whose odds shortened by 5 probability points or more before kick-off won 48.7% of the time; the closing price said 48.8%. The difference is within chance: once you can see a drop, it is already in the price. Moves are measured on Pinnacle's fair probability, the sharpest price we track; other bookmakers may lag behind. A drop is not a tip.

Dropping odds: where the sharp market moved
TimeMatch OutcomeWhen loggedNowMove (probability points)
Sassuolo LazioSerie A Lazio 39%2.48 49%2.02 39% 49%2.48 → 2.02 → +9.9 ppodds shortened
Liverpool ChelseaEFL Cup Liverpool 34%2.79 43%2.22 34% 43%2.79 → 2.22 → +9.2 ppodds shortened
Benevento CatanzaroSerie B Benevento 55%1.76 62%1.58 55% 62%1.76 → 1.58 → +7.4 ppodds shortened
Padova SudtirolSerie B Sudtirol 30%3.08 24%4.04 30% 24%3.08 → 4.04 → −6.8 ppodds drifted
AIK Stockholm IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan IF Elfsborg 44%2.18 49%1.98 44% 49%2.18 → 1.98 → +5.5 ppodds shortened
New York City FC Atlanta United FCMLS New York City FC 51%1.88 56%1.73 51% 56%1.88 → 1.73 → +5.0 ppodds shortened
Dinamo Zagreb HNK RijekaCroatia HNL Dinamo Zagreb 58%1.67 62%1.56 58% 62%1.67 → 1.56 → +4.8 ppodds shortened
Juve Stabia Hellas VeronaSerie B Hellas Verona 42%2.31 37%2.59 42% 37%2.31 → 2.59 → −4.7 ppodds drifted
Cesena EmpoliSerie B Empoli 28%3.31 24%4.05 28% 24%3.31 → 4.05 → −4.6 ppodds drifted
Pisa PalermoSerie B Pisa 36%2.65 41%2.37 36% 41%2.65 → 2.37 → +4.5 ppodds shortened
Monza NapoliSerie A Napoli 51%1.91 55%1.78 51% 55%1.91 → 1.78 → +4.4 ppodds shortened
Luton DoncasterLeague One Luton 63%1.55 67%1.47 63% 67%1.55 → 1.47 → +4.2 ppodds shortened
AC Oulu VPSVeikkausliiga AC Oulu 36%2.63 40%2.40 36% 40%2.63 → 2.40 → +4.0 ppodds shortened
Santos PalmeirasBrazil Serie A Palmeiras 40%2.40 43%2.23 40% 43%2.40 → 2.23 → +3.5 ppodds shortened
Inter Miami FC CincinnatiMLS Inter Miami 63%1.53 67%1.46 63% 67%1.53 → 1.46 → +3.4 ppodds shortened
AS Roma CagliariSerie A AS Roma 72%1.35 76%1.30 72% 76%1.35 → 1.30 → +3.4 ppodds shortened
Ascoli SampdoriaSerie B Ascoli 41%2.33 44%2.20 41% 44%2.33 → 2.20 → +3.4 ppodds shortened
Charlotte CF MontrealMLS Charlotte 62%1.56 65%1.49 62% 65%1.56 → 1.49 → +3.4 ppodds shortened
Sheffield Wednesday Cambridge UnitedLeague One Sheffield Wednesday 44%2.20 47%2.08 44% 47%2.20 → 2.08 → +3.2 ppodds shortened
Fulham Crystal PalaceEFL Cup Fulham 50%1.94 53%1.83 50% 53%1.94 → 1.83 → +3.1 ppodds shortened
Arda Kardzhali Levski SofiaBulgaria First League Levski Sofia 56%1.71 59%1.64 56% 59%1.71 → 1.64 → +3.1 ppodds shortened
Bournemouth Aston VillaEFL Cup Bournemouth 45%2.16 42%2.31 45% 42%2.16 → 2.31 → −3.0 ppodds drifted
Genoa JuventusSerie A Juventus 60%1.62 57%1.71 60% 57%1.62 → 1.71 → −2.7 ppodds drifted
St. Louis City Portland TimbersMLS St. Louis City 59%1.65 56%1.74 59% 56%1.65 → 1.74 → −2.7 ppodds drifted
Milton Keynes Dons BromleyLeague One Milton Keynes Dons 58%1.66 61%1.61 58% 61%1.66 → 1.61 → +2.5 ppodds shortened
IFK Goteborg Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan Djurgardens IF 46%2.05 49%1.96 46% 49%2.05 → 1.96 → +2.5 ppodds shortened
Parma UdineseSerie A Udinese 39%2.45 37%2.64 39% 37%2.45 → 2.64 → −2.4 ppodds drifted
AC Milan BolognaSerie A AC Milan 61%1.60 58%1.68 61% 58%1.60 → 1.68 → −2.4 ppodds drifted
Carrarese ArezzoSerie B Arezzo 31%3.05 28%3.33 31% 28%3.05 → 3.33 → −2.4 ppodds drifted
Fluminense InternacionalBrazil Serie A Fluminense 54%1.78 52%1.86 54% 52%1.78 → 1.86 → −2.3 ppodds drifted
Vicenza Virtus ModenaSerie B Vicenza Virtus 27%3.38 25%3.78 27% 25%3.38 → 3.78 → −2.2 ppodds drifted
FC Dallas Columbus CrewMLS FC Dallas 45%2.13 47%2.05 45% 47%2.13 → 2.05 → +2.2 ppodds shortened
Austin Real Salt LakeMLS Real Salt Lake 38%2.52 40%2.41 38% 40%2.52 → 2.41 → +2.2 ppodds shortened
Nashville SC Philadelphia UnionMLS Nashville SC 51%1.89 53%1.83 51% 53%1.89 → 1.83 → +2.1 ppodds shortened
Ceara GoiasBrazil Serie B Goias 25%3.78 27%3.58 25% 27%3.78 → 3.58 → +2.0 ppodds shortened
Koper MariborSlovenia PrvaLiga Maribor 37%2.54 39%2.45 37% 39%2.54 → 2.45 → +2.0 ppodds shortened

What did moves like these mean? Last 90 days

Outcomes whose odds shortened by 5 probability points or more before kick-off: 964. They won 48.7% of the time; the logged price said 41.3%, the closing price 48.8%.

Outcomes whose odds drifted by 5 probability points or more: 907. They won 35.9% of the time; the logged price said 42.2%, the closing price 34.8%.

Moves carry real information, but the price after the move is the better estimate: once you can see a drop, it is already in the price. Getting a price before it moves is what beats the market, and that is what closing line value measures. What is closing line value? →

Measured by TipsAudit

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