Every match with the fair odds the sharpest market implies, and a flag only when a bookmaker pays more. Graded against the closing line every day, losses included. No tips for sale, no profit promises. 18+.
Fair odds for every match: free, no account needed.
Check my slip All 406 upcoming matches → How to read a fair price →
Before you bet the slip, see its estimated chance and its price. See an example audit →
Wins the market puts at 65% or more, from Pinnacle's price without the margin.
Yesterday: 10 of 13 won (chance shown: 73% on average). Full record →
Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely
| Time | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy · Serie A | |||||
| 26% 3.65 fair 3.84 | 27% 3.70 fair 3.70 | 47% 2.16 fair 2.13 +1.3% | Micro-edge | ||
| 75% 1.36 fair 1.34 +1.5% | 17% 5.80 fair 5.88 | 8% 11.90 fair 12.04 | Value flag | ||
| 20% 5.00 fair 5.12 | 25% 3.95 fair 4.04 | 56% 1.82 fair 1.79 +1.4% | Micro-edge | ||
 England · EFL Cup | |||||
| 59% 1.67 fair 1.71 | 23% 4.30 fair 4.43 | 19% 5.55 fair 5.29 | Value expired | ||
| 2% 33.00 fair 46.71 | 6% 12.00 fair 15.93 | 92% 1.10 fair 1.09 +0.7% | Micro-edge | ||
 Argentina Liga Profesional | |||||
| 46% 2.10 fair 2.17 | 32% 3.30 fair 3.16 +4.3% | 22% 4.08 fair 4.48 | Strong value | ||
| Italy · Serie B | |||||
| 62% 1.64 fair 1.61 +1.8% | 21% 4.40 fair 4.86 | 17% 5.50 fair 5.77 | Value flag | ||
| 44% 2.20 fair 2.27 | 29% 3.40 fair 3.40 | 26% 3.50 fair 3.78 | Value expired | ||
| 47% 2.10 fair 2.11 | 29% 3.40 fair 3.47 | 24% 4.00 fair 4.20 | No value | ||
| 47% 2.10 fair 2.14 | 30% 3.40 fair 3.37 | 24% 4.00 fair 4.24 | Value expired | ||
| 43% 2.33 fair 2.30 +1.3% | 31% 3.20 fair 3.25 | 26% 3.60 fair 3.88 | Micro-edge | ||
| 25% 3.70 fair 3.98 | 27% 3.60 fair 3.64 | 47% 2.08 fair 2.11 | Value expired | ||
| 41% 2.26 fair 2.46 | 30% 3.40 fair 3.37 | 30% 3.35 fair 3.37 | Value expired | ||
 International · AFC Champions League Elite | |||||
| Starting line-ups confirmed | 53% fair 1.89 | 29% fair 3.45 | 18% fair 5.51 | Fair price only | |
 Estonia Meistriliiga | |||||
| 82% fair 1.22 | 11% fair 9.35 | 7% fair 13.89 | Fair price only | ||
| 22% fair 4.62 | 21% fair 4.72 | 57% fair 1.75 | Fair price only | ||
 Bulgaria Second League | |||||
| 50% 1.94 fair 2.00 | 28% 3.40 fair 3.59 | 22% 3.91 fair 4.51 | No value | ||
 Slovenia PrvaLiga | |||||
| 31% 2.95 fair 3.22 | 27% 3.45 fair 3.71 | 42% 2.25 fair 2.38 | No value | ||
 International · AFC Champions League Two | |||||
| 48% fair 2.08 | 25% fair 4.07 | 27% fair 3.65 | Fair price only | ||
 Croatia HNL | |||||
| 62% 1.62 fair 1.60 | 21% 4.20 fair 4.74 | 17% 5.25 fair 6.03 | Not re-checked | ||
Serie A ·
Pinnacle, with its margin removed, makes Lazio the most likely result at 47% — fair odds of 2.13. Any price above that is better than fair; below it, the bookmaker keeps a margin.
A bookmaker pays only slightly above the fair price on Lazio (2.16 at 1xBet, +1.3%): a micro-edge under 1.5%, monitor only.
Serie A ·
Pinnacle, with its margin removed, makes AS Roma the most likely result at 75% — fair odds of 1.34. Any price above that is better than fair; below it, the bookmaker keeps a margin.
Right now a bookmaker pays above the fair price on AS Roma: 1.36 at GTbets.
Serie A ·
Pinnacle, with its margin removed, makes Como the most likely result at 56% — fair odds of 1.79. Any price above that is better than fair; below it, the bookmaker keeps a margin.
A bookmaker pays only slightly above the fair price on Como (1.82 at 1xBet, +1.4%): a micro-edge under 1.5%, monitor only.
Fair prices move until kick-off. A price above fair is not a prediction that it will win; it is a better price for the same chance.
46 matches settled. The most likely outcome came in 26 times and missed 20 times. Value flags: 12 won, 6 lost, average CLV +0.1%.
The most likely outcome wins often, but at bookmaker prices that is not profit — closing line value is the honest measure.
All of yesterday's results →An independent football betting audit. For every tracked match it publishes the fair odds (the sharp market with the bookmaker's margin removed) and flags bookmaker prices above that line. Everything is graded against the closing line and published, losses included. It has no bookmaker affiliations and has published its record since 8 Jun 2026.
Neither. It takes no bets, sells no picks and never promises profit. We built about 50 prediction models and none beat the sharp market after the margin, so the site measures prices instead of selling opinions.
7,762 football predictions logged before kick-off since 8 Jun 2026; 7,350 settled; the displayed pick won 72.3% of the time; average closing line value -0.9% (Pinnacle's own price when we logged it against its close, margin left in, which is why it sits near or below zero). Value flags recorded live since 26 Sep 2026: 1,135 settled, average CLV at signal +1.7% (95% interval +1.1% to +2.2%). For the 79% of flags whose price we could re-check within 60 minutes, CLV at that price was +1.0%. The interval of CLV at signal excludes zero.
9 public tipster channels tracked. Channels with at least 15 settled picks: 4; with a verdict (at least 30 picks with a measurable closing price): 1; beating the closing line with statistical confidence (a 95% interval above zero): 0. Only about 1 in 4 of the Telegram tips we read can be checked at all: 421 of 1,519 (28%). The rest are combinations, bet builders or markets we do not audit (579), or tips we cannot tie to a real match before kick-off (508). Each profile shows the measured win rate, ROI and closing line value next to what the tipster claims.
Predictions are logged before kick-off and published daily to a public Git repository, timestamped with OpenTimestamps; timestamped snapshots are never overwritten, and the Git history shows any difference. The full dataset is free to download (CC-BY 4.0), and the corrections page lists, with dates, the corrections we announced.
No. TipsAudit never sells fixed matches or guaranteed results. Offers of "fixed matches" are a well-known fraud pattern: a result that was really fixed would not be sold to strangers online. We publish fair odds and measure bookmakers, tipsters and prediction sites against them.
Not on its own. At odds of 1.40 you need to win 71.4% of your bets just to break even (1 ÷ 1.40). The bookmaker's margin is already inside that price: the fair odds for the same bet are higher, so that break-even rate sits above the bet's real chance. A high win rate at low odds can still lose money. What decides it is the price you get compared with the fair price, which is what we measure.
